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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 36% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Denver).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for PACE was off by 8.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 36% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +6.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PACE came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 474 MW, against average demand of 5,491 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 76% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error8.9%
Bias+6.8%
Hours within 5%36%
Worst miss2,098 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+340 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,098 MW (36.9%) too high at 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 MDT (UTC-06:00): forecast 7,789 MW, reported 5,691 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
PACE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 29 Oct, 08:0030 Oct, 08:0031 Oct, 08:001 Nov, 07:002 Nov, 07:003 Nov, 07:004 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PACE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 08:004,963 MW6,234 MW
29 Oct, 09:006,128 MW6,178 MW
29 Oct, 10:006,029 MW6,126 MW
29 Oct, 11:005,873 MW6,030 MW
29 Oct, 12:006,190 MW5,953 MW
29 Oct, 13:006,060 MW5,922 MW
29 Oct, 14:006,034 MW5,944 MW
29 Oct, 15:005,659 MW5,990 MW
29 Oct, 16:005,507 MW6,024 MW
29 Oct, 17:005,496 MW6,035 MW
29 Oct, 18:005,255 MW6,205 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,851 MW6,288 MW
29 Oct, 20:005,047 MW6,183 MW
29 Oct, 21:005,051 MW6,047 MW
29 Oct, 22:004,987 MW5,826 MW
29 Oct, 23:004,996 MW5,579 MW
30 Oct, 00:005,320 MW5,393 MW
30 Oct, 01:005,099 MW5,239 MW
30 Oct, 02:005,147 MW5,161 MW
30 Oct, 03:005,101 MW5,135 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,690 MW5,244 MW
30 Oct, 05:004,744 MW5,438 MW
30 Oct, 06:004,596 MW5,742 MW
30 Oct, 07:004,810 MW6,054 MW
30 Oct, 08:005,044 MW6,133 MW
30 Oct, 09:005,282 MW6,103 MW
30 Oct, 10:006,107 MW6,101 MW
30 Oct, 11:006,031 MW6,035 MW
30 Oct, 12:006,393 MW6,006 MW
30 Oct, 13:005,891 MW5,978 MW
30 Oct, 14:005,836 MW5,982 MW
30 Oct, 15:005,749 MW5,997 MW
30 Oct, 16:005,668 MW6,001 MW
30 Oct, 17:005,571 MW6,012 MW
30 Oct, 18:004,929 MW6,048 MW
30 Oct, 19:005,029 MW6,143 MW
30 Oct, 20:005,418 MW6,100 MW
30 Oct, 21:005,352 MW5,941 MW
30 Oct, 22:005,127 MW5,728 MW
30 Oct, 23:004,969 MW5,537 MW
31 Oct, 00:004,821 MW5,356 MW
31 Oct, 01:004,426 MW5,225 MW
31 Oct, 02:004,639 MW5,114 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,970 MW5,038 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,950 MW5,033 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,890 MW5,113 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,982 MW5,247 MW
31 Oct, 07:004,872 MW5,389 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,003 MW5,497 MW
31 Oct, 09:004,973 MW5,576 MW
31 Oct, 10:005,625 MW5,661 MW
31 Oct, 11:005,752 MW5,725 MW
31 Oct, 12:005,961 MW5,746 MW
31 Oct, 13:005,870 MW5,750 MW
31 Oct, 14:005,821 MW5,756 MW
31 Oct, 15:005,633 MW5,759 MW
31 Oct, 16:005,409 MW5,754 MW
31 Oct, 17:004,682 MW5,760 MW
31 Oct, 18:004,736 MW5,739 MW
31 Oct, 19:005,113 MW5,693 MW
31 Oct, 20:005,200 MW5,643 MW
31 Oct, 21:005,360 MW5,603 MW
31 Oct, 22:005,047 MW5,506 MW
31 Oct, 23:004,839 MW5,348 MW
1 Nov, 00:004,679 MW5,196 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,648 MW5,105 MW
1 Nov, 01:004,638 MW5,061 MW
1 Nov, 02:004,749 MW5,040 MW
1 Nov, 03:004,554 MW5,000 MW
1 Nov, 04:004,539 MW5,000 MW
1 Nov, 05:004,511 MW5,061 MW
1 Nov, 06:004,665 MW5,175 MW
1 Nov, 07:004,843 MW5,314 MW
1 Nov, 08:005,100 MW5,434 MW
1 Nov, 09:005,396 MW5,524 MW
1 Nov, 10:005,814 MW5,584 MW
1 Nov, 11:006,170 MW5,664 MW
1 Nov, 12:006,017 MW5,737 MW
1 Nov, 13:005,893 MW5,782 MW
1 Nov, 14:006,109 MW5,833 MW
1 Nov, 15:006,044 MW5,905 MW
1 Nov, 16:005,897 MW6,043 MW
1 Nov, 17:005,799 MW6,229 MW
1 Nov, 18:005,225 MW6,247 MW
1 Nov, 19:005,461 MW6,187 MW
1 Nov, 20:005,438 MW6,047 MW
1 Nov, 21:005,228 MW5,887 MW
1 Nov, 22:004,683 MW5,667 MW
1 Nov, 23:004,621 MW5,452 MW
2 Nov, 00:004,705 MW5,279 MW
2 Nov, 01:005,189 MW5,199 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,751 MW5,171 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,913 MW5,186 MW
2 Nov, 04:005,051 MW5,286 MW
2 Nov, 05:005,099 MW5,533 MW
2 Nov, 06:005,264 MW5,894 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,550 MW6,192 MW
2 Nov, 08:006,321 MW6,315 MW
2 Nov, 09:006,947 MW6,325 MW
2 Nov, 10:006,695 MW6,312 MW
2 Nov, 11:006,493 MW6,297 MW
2 Nov, 12:006,423 MW6,275 MW
2 Nov, 13:006,357 MW6,249 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,110 MW6,220 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,172 MW6,232 MW
2 Nov, 16:005,801 MW6,344 MW
2 Nov, 17:005,564 MW6,490 MW
2 Nov, 18:005,463 MW6,552 MW
2 Nov, 19:005,319 MW6,489 MW
2 Nov, 20:005,222 MW6,381 MW
2 Nov, 21:005,210 MW6,214 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,215 MW5,968 MW
2 Nov, 23:004,906 MW5,735 MW
3 Nov, 00:005,071 MW5,594 MW
3 Nov, 01:005,129 MW5,477 MW
3 Nov, 02:005,072 MW5,413 MW
3 Nov, 03:005,333 MW5,418 MW
3 Nov, 04:005,130 MW5,507 MW
3 Nov, 05:005,027 MW5,725 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,153 MW6,050 MW
3 Nov, 07:005,653 MW6,290 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,931 MW6,297 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,101 MW6,226 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,112 MW6,148 MW
3 Nov, 11:005,975 MW6,086 MW
3 Nov, 12:005,770 MW6,043 MW
3 Nov, 13:005,695 MW6,025 MW
3 Nov, 14:005,531 MW6,011 MW
3 Nov, 15:005,466 MW6,048 MW
3 Nov, 16:005,124 MW6,187 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,816 MW6,392 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,829 MW6,466 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,739 MW6,379 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,719 MW6,275 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,884 MW6,119 MW
3 Nov, 22:004,963 MW5,894 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,118 MW5,668 MW
4 Nov, 00:005,191 MW5,494 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,842 MW5,416 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,766 MW5,383 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,780 MW5,383 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,796 MW5,461 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,873 MW5,679 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,111 MW5,999 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,361 MW6,244 MW
4 Nov, 08:005,648 MW6,314 MW
4 Nov, 09:006,086 MW6,277 MW
4 Nov, 10:006,200 MW6,232 MW
4 Nov, 11:006,079 MW6,177 MW
4 Nov, 12:005,928 MW6,125 MW
4 Nov, 13:006,056 MW6,068 MW
4 Nov, 14:005,893 MW6,015 MW
4 Nov, 15:005,638 MW6,000 MW
4 Nov, 16:005,350 MW6,109 MW
4 Nov, 17:005,330 MW6,264 MW
4 Nov, 18:005,064 MW6,354 MW
4 Nov, 19:005,102 MW6,326 MW
4 Nov, 20:004,941 MW6,260 MW
4 Nov, 21:004,983 MW6,126 MW
4 Nov, 22:004,976 MW5,924 MW
4 Nov, 23:004,893 MW5,711 MW
5 Nov, 00:004,821 MW5,579 MW
5 Nov, 01:004,851 MW5,312 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,704 MW5,199 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,794 MW5,154 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,847 MW5,272 MW
5 Nov, 05:005,012 MW5,474 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,257 MW5,864 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pace_2026,
  title = {{PACE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pace/}
}

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