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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for FPC was off by 24.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 0% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -24.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, FPC came 49 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,539 MW, against average demand of 6,310 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 0% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error24.1%
Bias-24.1%
Hours within 5%0%
Worst miss3,005 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,539 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,005 MW (30.8%) too low at 13 Oct 2026, 16:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 6,756 MW, reported 9,761 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
FPC day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for FPC over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:006,346 MW5,007 MW
29 Oct, 11:006,764 MW5,293 MW
29 Oct, 12:007,257 MW5,587 MW
29 Oct, 13:007,685 MW5,843 MW
29 Oct, 14:008,053 MW6,030 MW
29 Oct, 15:008,440 MW6,178 MW
29 Oct, 16:008,728 MW6,296 MW
29 Oct, 17:008,697 MW6,281 MW
29 Oct, 18:008,388 MW6,174 MW
29 Oct, 19:008,221 MW6,054 MW
29 Oct, 20:007,845 MW5,829 MW
29 Oct, 21:007,352 MW5,484 MW
29 Oct, 22:006,732 MW5,054 MW
29 Oct, 23:006,112 MW4,606 MW
30 Oct, 00:005,608 MW4,205 MW
30 Oct, 01:005,212 MW3,912 MW
30 Oct, 02:004,975 MW3,700 MW
30 Oct, 03:004,821 MW3,590 MW
30 Oct, 04:004,787 MW3,599 MW
30 Oct, 05:005,029 MW3,785 MW
30 Oct, 06:005,467 MW4,079 MW
30 Oct, 07:005,753 MW4,324 MW
30 Oct, 08:005,919 MW4,509 MW
30 Oct, 09:006,159 MW4,723 MW
30 Oct, 10:006,499 MW4,995 MW
30 Oct, 11:006,924 MW5,260 MW
30 Oct, 12:007,337 MW5,541 MW
30 Oct, 13:007,758 MW5,792 MW
30 Oct, 14:008,191 MW5,987 MW
30 Oct, 15:008,578 MW6,154 MW
30 Oct, 16:008,812 MW6,258 MW
30 Oct, 17:008,654 MW6,208 MW
30 Oct, 18:008,255 MW6,042 MW
30 Oct, 19:008,020 MW5,882 MW
30 Oct, 20:007,586 MW5,642 MW
30 Oct, 21:007,195 MW5,341 MW
30 Oct, 22:006,718 MW4,983 MW
30 Oct, 23:006,218 MW4,598 MW
31 Oct, 00:005,767 MW4,262 MW
31 Oct, 01:005,388 MW3,968 MW
31 Oct, 02:005,134 MW3,751 MW
31 Oct, 03:004,938 MW3,618 MW
31 Oct, 04:004,826 MW3,567 MW
31 Oct, 05:004,839 MW3,597 MW
31 Oct, 06:004,970 MW3,709 MW
31 Oct, 07:005,187 MW3,887 MW
31 Oct, 08:005,575 MW4,180 MW
31 Oct, 09:006,066 MW4,531 MW
31 Oct, 10:006,605 MW4,860 MW
31 Oct, 11:007,092 MW5,132 MW
31 Oct, 12:007,580 MW5,383 MW
31 Oct, 13:007,936 MW5,582 MW
31 Oct, 14:008,266 MW5,742 MW
31 Oct, 15:008,406 MW5,832 MW
31 Oct, 16:008,467 MW5,877 MW
31 Oct, 17:008,262 MW5,791 MW
31 Oct, 18:007,738 MW5,647 MW
31 Oct, 19:007,381 MW5,511 MW
31 Oct, 20:007,083 MW5,324 MW
31 Oct, 21:006,856 MW5,059 MW
31 Oct, 22:006,469 MW4,763 MW
31 Oct, 23:006,035 MW4,404 MW
1 Nov, 00:006,035 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:005,388 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:005,134 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:004,938 MWn/a
1 Nov, 03:004,826 MWn/a
1 Nov, 04:004,839 MWn/a
1 Nov, 05:004,970 MWn/a
1 Nov, 06:005,187 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:005,575 MWn/a
1 Nov, 08:006,066 MWn/a
1 Nov, 09:006,605 MWn/a
1 Nov, 10:007,092 MWn/a
1 Nov, 11:007,580 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:007,936 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:008,266 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:008,406 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:008,467 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:008,262 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:007,738 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:007,381 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:007,083 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:006,856 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:006,469 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:006,035 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:00n/an/a
2 Nov, 00:004,866 MW3,757 MW
2 Nov, 01:004,578 MW3,537 MW
2 Nov, 02:004,448 MW3,388 MW
2 Nov, 03:004,383 MW3,333 MW
2 Nov, 04:004,451 MW3,399 MW
2 Nov, 05:004,693 MW3,646 MW
2 Nov, 06:005,174 MW3,992 MW
2 Nov, 07:005,488 MW4,276 MW
2 Nov, 08:005,698 MW4,436 MW
2 Nov, 09:005,878 MW4,588 MW
2 Nov, 10:006,031 MW4,770 MW
2 Nov, 11:006,090 MW4,958 MW
2 Nov, 12:006,250 MW5,122 MW
2 Nov, 13:006,335 MW5,260 MW
2 Nov, 14:006,354 MW5,335 MW
2 Nov, 15:006,459 MW5,417 MW
2 Nov, 16:006,635 MW5,478 MW
2 Nov, 17:006,902 MW5,579 MW
2 Nov, 18:007,177 MW5,587 MW
2 Nov, 19:007,057 MW5,529 MW
2 Nov, 20:006,753 MW5,265 MW
2 Nov, 21:006,367 MW4,933 MW
2 Nov, 22:005,815 MW4,536 MW
2 Nov, 23:005,314 MW4,153 MW
3 Nov, 00:004,932 MW3,885 MW
3 Nov, 01:004,646 MW3,664 MW
3 Nov, 02:004,462 MW3,494 MW
3 Nov, 03:004,377 MW3,422 MW
3 Nov, 04:004,449 MW3,467 MW
3 Nov, 05:004,785 MW3,700 MW
3 Nov, 06:005,370 MW4,025 MW
3 Nov, 07:005,696 MW4,300 MW
3 Nov, 08:005,937 MW4,487 MW
3 Nov, 09:006,175 MW4,716 MW
3 Nov, 10:006,471 MW5,004 MW
3 Nov, 11:006,912 MW5,271 MW
3 Nov, 12:007,343 MW5,509 MW
3 Nov, 13:007,664 MW5,728 MW
3 Nov, 14:007,946 MW5,878 MW
3 Nov, 15:008,112 MW5,953 MW
3 Nov, 16:008,105 MW5,955 MW
3 Nov, 17:008,066 MW5,982 MW
3 Nov, 18:008,111 MW5,915 MW
3 Nov, 19:007,826 MW5,876 MW
3 Nov, 20:007,408 MW5,616 MW
3 Nov, 21:006,940 MW5,260 MW
3 Nov, 22:006,320 MW4,779 MW
3 Nov, 23:005,772 MW4,387 MW
4 Nov, 00:005,251 MW4,057 MW
4 Nov, 01:004,931 MW3,824 MW
4 Nov, 02:004,705 MW3,657 MW
4 Nov, 03:004,585 MW3,579 MW
4 Nov, 04:004,608 MW3,620 MW
4 Nov, 05:004,888 MW3,854 MW
4 Nov, 06:005,429 MW4,187 MW
4 Nov, 07:005,732 MW4,451 MW
4 Nov, 08:006,119 MW4,625 MW
4 Nov, 09:006,552 MW4,840 MW
4 Nov, 10:007,026 MW5,128 MW
4 Nov, 11:007,447 MW5,447 MW
4 Nov, 12:007,962 MW5,782 MW
4 Nov, 13:008,223 MW6,100 MW
4 Nov, 14:008,496 MW6,329 MW
4 Nov, 15:008,603 MW6,476 MW
4 Nov, 16:008,675 MW6,507 MW
4 Nov, 17:008,574 MW6,438 MW
4 Nov, 18:008,472 MW6,280 MW
4 Nov, 19:008,069 MW6,067 MW
4 Nov, 20:007,663 MW5,741 MW
4 Nov, 21:007,153 MW5,332 MW
4 Nov, 22:006,499 MW4,881 MW
4 Nov, 23:005,913 MW4,449 MW
5 Nov, 00:005,393 MW4,220 MW
5 Nov, 01:005,029 MW3,944 MW
5 Nov, 02:004,782 MW3,747 MW
5 Nov, 03:004,621 MW3,649 MW
5 Nov, 04:004,663 MW3,672 MW
5 Nov, 05:004,882 MW3,881 MW
5 Nov, 06:005,337 MW4,191 MW
5 Nov, 07:005,634 MW4,442 MW
5 Nov, 08:005,809 MW4,616 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fpc_2026,
  title = {{FPC Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fpc/}
}

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