Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 52% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (45.2%) too high at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Nicosia).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 52% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 349 MW (45.2%) too high at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Cyprus came 34 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 48 MW, against average demand of 861 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 20% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026Average error5.8%
Bias-2.3%
Hours within 5%52%
Worst miss349 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-22 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 349 MW (45.2%) too high at 4 Sept 2026, 13:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,120 MW, reported 771 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00)Data to 2026-09-20
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 1,002 MW | 945 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 982 MW | 909 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 933 MW | 862 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 910 MW | 853 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 908 MW | 852 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 884 MW | 831 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 833 MW | 791 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 767 MW | 733 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 706 MW | 683 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 661 MW | 638 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 626 MW | 607 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 600 MW | 584 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 590 MW | 574 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 605 MW | 590 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 662 MW | 636 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 733 MW | 729 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 867 MW | 865 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 963 MW | 960 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 1,022 MW | 1,014 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 1,056 MW | 1,053 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 1,077 MW | 1,079 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 1,090 MW | 1,090 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 1,135 MW | 1,111 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 1,134 MW | 1,100 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,070 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 1,051 MW | 1,013 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 978 MW | 943 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 961 MW | 917 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 941 MW | 894 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 894 MW | 851 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 832 MW | 799 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 760 MW | 738 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 700 MW | 655 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 652 MW | 615 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 618 MW | 585 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 594 MW | 564 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 585 MW | 556 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 604 MW | 569 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 656 MW | 613 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 730 MW | 692 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 847 MW | 813 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 932 MW | 902 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 1,006 MW | 962 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 1,022 MW | 992 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 1,047 MW | 1,008 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 957 MW | 1,019 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 1,083 MW | 1,027 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 1,102 MW | 1,016 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 1,077 MW | 980 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 1,034 MW | 930 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 971 MW | 870 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 960 MW | 858 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 942 MW | 840 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 900 MW | 806 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 840 MW | 762 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 776 MW | 708 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 712 MW | 660 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 666 MW | 616 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 634 MW | 584 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 611 MW | 561 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 602 MW | 552 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 617 MW | 568 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 668 MW | 618 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 740 MW | 695 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 876 MW | 830 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 957 MW | 926 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 999 MW | 980 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 1,026 MW | 1,014 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 1,048 MW | 1,032 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 1,067 MW | 1,045 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 1,104 MW | 1,063 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 1,107 MW | 1,059 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 1,065 MW | 1,020 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 1,033 MW | 962 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 969 MW | 891 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 961 MW | 877 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 937 MW | 858 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 891 MW | 817 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 832 MW | 763 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 763 MW | 700 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 699 MW | 654 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 651 MW | 613 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 620 MW | 584 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 598 MW | 563 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 589 MW | 556 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 605 MW | 576 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 658 MW | 627 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 742 MW | 702 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 866 MW | 825 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 947 MW | 913 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 1,006 MW | 964 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 1,037 MW | 980 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 1,059 MW | 995 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 1,047 MW | 998 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 1,123 MW | 1,019 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 1,063 MW | 1,017 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 1,013 MW | 975 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 946 MW | 922 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 887 MW | 868 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 886 MW | 866 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 865 MW | 841 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 822 MW | 799 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 770 MW | 747 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 709 MW | 686 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 657 MW | 646 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 616 MW | 606 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 582 MW | 578 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 559 MW | 560 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 554 MW | 555 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 573 MW | 572 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 627 MW | 621 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 694 MW | 692 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 782 MW | 810 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 856 MW | 885 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 907 MW | 922 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 905 MW | 939 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 927 MW | 951 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 886 MW | 957 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | n/a | 975 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 847 MW | 966 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 877 MW | 935 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 857 MW | 888 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 825 MW | 832 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 817 MW | 829 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 784 MW | 799 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 735 MW | 754 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 695 MW | 705 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 651 MW | 652 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 609 MW | 619 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 573 MW | 583 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 550 MW | 554 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 534 MW | 535 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 524 MW | 523 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 530 MW | 522 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 553 MW | 540 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 609 MW | 594 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 716 MW | 697 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 775 MW | 782 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 796 MW | 826 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 822 MW | 848 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 862 MW | 872 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 883 MW | 883 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 878 MW | 887 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 878 MW | 889 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 871 MW | 878 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 844 MW | 845 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 796 MW | 799 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 799 MW | 791 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 768 MW | 763 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 733 MW | 729 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 699 MW | 697 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 659 MW | 662 MW |
| 20 Sept, 00:00 | 624 MW | 582 MW |
| 20 Sept, 01:00 | 591 MW | 551 MW |
| 20 Sept, 02:00 | 562 MW | 526 MW |
| 20 Sept, 03:00 | 543 MW | 508 MW |
| 20 Sept, 04:00 | 531 MW | 499 MW |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 | 531 MW | 497 MW |
| 20 Sept, 06:00 | 539 MW | 507 MW |
| 20 Sept, 07:00 | 576 MW | 545 MW |
| 20 Sept, 08:00 | 655 MW | 637 MW |
| 20 Sept, 09:00 | 703 MW | 710 MW |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 | 747 MW | 740 MW |
| 20 Sept, 11:00 | 790 MW | 761 MW |
| 20 Sept, 12:00 | 819 MW | 782 MW |
| 20 Sept, 13:00 | 851 MW | 789 MW |
| 20 Sept, 14:00 | 832 MW | 791 MW |
| 20 Sept, 15:00 | 813 MW | 791 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.