Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 658 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 50% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Nicosia).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Cyprus was off by 5.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 658 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 50% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -3.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Cyprus came 35 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 31 MW, against average demand of 580 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 19% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

658 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error5.4%

Bias-3.6%

Hours within 5%50%

Worst miss246 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 246 MW (52.4%) too high at 8 Oct 2026, 10:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 714 MW, reported 468 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Cyprus over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 16:00	660 MW	666 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	713 MW	698 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	738 MW	698 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	719 MW	667 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	672 MW	620 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	610 MW	567 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	542 MW	512 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	484 MW	464 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	441 MW	420 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	416 MW	399 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	403 MW	388 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	398 MW	384 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	405 MW	393 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	445 MW	433 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	518 MW	496 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	607 MW	581 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	640 MW	649 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	645 MW	684 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	645 MW	694 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	646 MW	689 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	675 MW	695 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	685 MW	670 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	656 MW	654 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	669 MW	648 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	656 MW	638 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	688 MW	665 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	692 MW	664 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	670 MW	641 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	630 MW	600 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	583 MW	554 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	529 MW	504 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	480 MW	460 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	444 MW	389 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	419 MW	371 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	404 MW	362 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	395 MW	360 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	398 MW	369 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	419 MW	405 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	454 MW	472 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	522 MW	555 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	576 MW	606 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	615 MW	622 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	610 MW	630 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	602 MW	638 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	606 MW	639 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	615 MW	630 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	592 MW	629 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	595 MW	613 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	604 MW	593 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	643 MW	623 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	649 MW	623 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	628 MW	601 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	591 MW	564 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	552 MW	518 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	511 MW	470 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	472 MW	426 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	442 MW	402 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	415 MW	382 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	399 MW	371 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	391 MW	364 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	392 MW	367 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	405 MW	383 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	421 MW	410 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	467 MW	476 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	523 MW	526 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	546 MW	555 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	556 MW	567 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	556 MW	576 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	559 MW	579 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	557 MW	571 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	539 MW	567 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	553 MW	548 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	571 MW	537 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	617 MW	579 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	633 MW	587 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	619 MW	568 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	590 MW	540 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	551 MW	499 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	500 MW	454 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	452 MW	416 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	416 MW	413 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	391 MW	394 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	379 MW	383 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	376 MW	380 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	383 MW	389 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	425 MW	429 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	497 MW	493 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	572 MW	568 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	619 MW	644 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	646 MW	678 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	675 MW	686 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	656 MW	688 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	656 MW	689 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	664 MW	679 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	690 MW	661 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	671 MW	647 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	654 MW	647 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	692 MW	678 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	705 MW	677 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	687 MW	655 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	650 MW	618 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	599 MW	565 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	537 MW	511 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	n/a	466 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	n/a	408 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	n/a	385 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	409 MW	373 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	406 MW	368 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	414 MW	373 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	456 MW	407 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	527 MW	474 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	609 MW	562 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	664 MW	613 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	687 MW	627 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	678 MW	627 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	673 MW	634 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	673 MW	643 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	686 MW	645 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	708 MW	635 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	662 MW	622 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	666 MW	604 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	705 MW	635 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	706 MW	643 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	690 MW	626 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	651 MW	591 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	597 MW	550 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	537 MW	503 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	483 MW	460 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	446 MW	421 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	421 MW	400 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	410 MW	386 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	406 MW	382 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	417 MW	392 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	456 MW	433 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	528 MW	506 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	601 MW	589 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	654 MW	647 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	687 MW	672 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	689 MW	684 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	696 MW	690 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	716 MW	686 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	663 MW	682 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	655 MW	673 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	654 MW	657 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	664 MW	636 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	700 MW	671 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	706 MW	673 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	690 MW	650 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	654 MW	609 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	604 MW	562 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	544 MW	509 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	488 MW	464 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	448 MW	415 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	421 MW	394 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	408 MW	383 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	403 MW	380 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	413 MW	390 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	455 MW	433 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	532 MW	505 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	616 MW	586 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	663 MW	645 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	683 MW	671 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	676 MW	675 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	681 MW	670 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	691 MW	665 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	675 MW	663 MW
5 Nov, 14:00	671 MW	669 MW
5 Nov, 15:00	675 MW	648 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (658 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_cy_2026,
  title = {{Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/cy/

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Cyprus Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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