North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 22 August to 19 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 517 hours from 22 August to 19 September 2026, and 43% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 158 MW (26.1%) too low at 12 Sept 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Skopje).

This grid has 517 compared hours out of the 696 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 517 hours from 22 August to 19 September 2026, and 43% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 158 MW (26.1%) too low at 12 Sept 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, North Macedonia came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 38 MW, against average demand of 512 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

517 hours from 22 August to 19 September 2026

Average error8.7%

Bias-2.3%

Hours within 5%43%

Worst miss158 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 158 MW (26.1%) too low at 12 Sept 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 446 MW, reported 603 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-19. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 19 Sept 2026, 23:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for North Macedonia over the last 7 days of the window, to 19 Sept 2026, 23:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-09-19

North Macedonia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 00:00	465 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 01:00	469 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 02:00	441 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 03:00	427 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 04:00	418 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 05:00	425 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 06:00	407 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 07:00	327 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 08:00	188 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 09:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 10:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 13:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 14:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 15:00	n/a	n/a
13 Sept, 16:00	297 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 17:00	459 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 18:00	562 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 19:00	570 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 20:00	569 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 21:00	588 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 22:00	558 MW	n/a
13 Sept, 23:00	512 MW	n/a
14 Sept, 00:00	451 MW	462 MW
14 Sept, 01:00	400 MW	409 MW
14 Sept, 02:00	415 MW	444 MW
14 Sept, 03:00	410 MW	436 MW
14 Sept, 04:00	421 MW	439 MW
14 Sept, 05:00	438 MW	468 MW
14 Sept, 06:00	473 MW	483 MW
14 Sept, 07:00	399 MW	421 MW
14 Sept, 08:00	231 MW	242 MW
14 Sept, 09:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 10:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 13:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 14:00	n/a	n/a
14 Sept, 15:00	173 MW	177 MW
14 Sept, 16:00	301 MW	308 MW
14 Sept, 17:00	493 MW	518 MW
14 Sept, 18:00	587 MW	620 MW
14 Sept, 19:00	600 MW	634 MW
14 Sept, 20:00	591 MW	593 MW
14 Sept, 21:00	596 MW	636 MW
14 Sept, 22:00	618 MW	651 MW
14 Sept, 23:00	566 MW	607 MW
15 Sept, 00:00	498 MW	528 MW
15 Sept, 01:00	450 MW	472 MW
15 Sept, 02:00	456 MW	501 MW
15 Sept, 03:00	454 MW	491 MW
15 Sept, 04:00	455 MW	494 MW
15 Sept, 05:00	478 MW	520 MW
15 Sept, 06:00	497 MW	531 MW
15 Sept, 07:00	461 MW	549 MW
15 Sept, 08:00	411 MW	394 MW
15 Sept, 09:00	318 MW	240 MW
15 Sept, 10:00	259 MW	192 MW
15 Sept, 11:00	180 MW	n/a
15 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
15 Sept, 13:00	159 MW	207 MW
15 Sept, 14:00	255 MW	292 MW
15 Sept, 15:00	433 MW	372 MW
15 Sept, 16:00	499 MW	455 MW
15 Sept, 17:00	594 MW	564 MW
15 Sept, 18:00	625 MW	678 MW
15 Sept, 19:00	610 MW	665 MW
15 Sept, 20:00	599 MW	644 MW
15 Sept, 21:00	599 MW	670 MW
15 Sept, 22:00	621 MW	639 MW
15 Sept, 23:00	583 MW	603 MW
16 Sept, 00:00	512 MW	514 MW
16 Sept, 01:00	465 MW	456 MW
16 Sept, 02:00	464 MW	486 MW
16 Sept, 03:00	445 MW	476 MW
16 Sept, 04:00	476 MW	478 MW
16 Sept, 05:00	481 MW	504 MW
16 Sept, 06:00	530 MW	515 MW
16 Sept, 07:00	512 MW	490 MW
16 Sept, 08:00	427 MW	297 MW
16 Sept, 09:00	285 MW	n/a
16 Sept, 10:00	163 MW	n/a
16 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
16 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
16 Sept, 13:00	179 MW	n/a
16 Sept, 14:00	236 MW	n/a
16 Sept, 15:00	279 MW	157 MW
16 Sept, 16:00	372 MW	307 MW
16 Sept, 17:00	513 MW	514 MW
16 Sept, 18:00	612 MW	664 MW
16 Sept, 19:00	610 MW	624 MW
16 Sept, 20:00	605 MW	611 MW
16 Sept, 21:00	613 MW	651 MW
16 Sept, 22:00	634 MW	624 MW
16 Sept, 23:00	582 MW	580 MW
17 Sept, 00:00	505 MW	479 MW
17 Sept, 01:00	449 MW	427 MW
17 Sept, 02:00	466 MW	461 MW
17 Sept, 03:00	464 MW	454 MW
17 Sept, 04:00	461 MW	460 MW
17 Sept, 05:00	481 MW	507 MW
17 Sept, 06:00	508 MW	520 MW
17 Sept, 07:00	436 MW	456 MW
17 Sept, 08:00	281 MW	232 MW
17 Sept, 09:00	144 MW	n/a
17 Sept, 10:00	n/a	n/a
17 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
17 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
17 Sept, 13:00	n/a	n/a
17 Sept, 14:00	n/a	n/a
17 Sept, 15:00	245 MW	n/a
17 Sept, 16:00	368 MW	296 MW
17 Sept, 17:00	536 MW	532 MW
17 Sept, 18:00	622 MW	639 MW
17 Sept, 19:00	604 MW	598 MW
17 Sept, 20:00	591 MW	581 MW
17 Sept, 21:00	611 MW	608 MW
17 Sept, 22:00	631 MW	629 MW
17 Sept, 23:00	585 MW	583 MW
18 Sept, 00:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 01:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 02:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 03:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 04:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 05:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 06:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 07:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 08:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 09:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 10:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 13:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 14:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 15:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 16:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 17:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 18:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 19:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 20:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 21:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 22:00	n/a	n/a
18 Sept, 23:00	n/a	n/a
19 Sept, 00:00	512 MW	499 MW
19 Sept, 01:00	505 MW	507 MW
19 Sept, 02:00	468 MW	481 MW
19 Sept, 03:00	459 MW	470 MW
19 Sept, 04:00	463 MW	467 MW
19 Sept, 05:00	477 MW	487 MW
19 Sept, 06:00	479 MW	488 MW
19 Sept, 07:00	409 MW	423 MW
19 Sept, 08:00	276 MW	240 MW
19 Sept, 09:00	163 MW	n/a
19 Sept, 10:00	n/a	n/a
19 Sept, 11:00	n/a	n/a
19 Sept, 12:00	n/a	n/a
19 Sept, 13:00	153 MW	n/a
19 Sept, 14:00	246 MW	174 MW
19 Sept, 15:00	372 MW	248 MW
19 Sept, 16:00	467 MW	404 MW
19 Sept, 17:00	575 MW	536 MW
19 Sept, 18:00	599 MW	574 MW
19 Sept, 19:00	567 MW	554 MW
19 Sept, 20:00	557 MW	561 MW
19 Sept, 21:00	563 MW	589 MW
19 Sept, 22:00	579 MW	609 MW
19 Sept, 23:00	546 MW	577 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (517 of 696 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 22 August to 19 September 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related