North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 7 October to 4 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 622 hours from 7 October to 4 November 2026, and 45% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Skopje).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for North Macedonia was off by 8.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 622 hours from 7 October to 4 November 2026, and 45% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, North Macedonia came 40 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 51 MW, against average demand of 638 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

622 hours from 7 October to 4 November 2026

Average error8.6%

Bias-2.6%

Hours within 5%45%

Worst miss374 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-19 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 374 MW (54.0%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 318 MW, reported 691 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-04. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 4 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for North Macedonia over the last 7 days of the window, to 4 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-04

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 00:00	717 MW	716 MW
29 Oct, 01:00	625 MW	613 MW
29 Oct, 02:00	609 MW	608 MW
29 Oct, 03:00	577 MW	572 MW
29 Oct, 04:00	552 MW	563 MW
29 Oct, 05:00	586 MW	606 MW
29 Oct, 06:00	598 MW	614 MW
29 Oct, 07:00	653 MW	579 MW
29 Oct, 08:00	698 MW	556 MW
29 Oct, 09:00	665 MW	611 MW
29 Oct, 10:00	593 MW	573 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	498 MW	566 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	478 MW	599 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	623 MW	735 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	728 MW	806 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	791 MW	744 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	903 MW	791 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	890 MW	763 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	868 MW	755 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	870 MW	757 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	846 MW	768 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	827 MW	784 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	852 MW	819 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	793 MW	823 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	n/a	722 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	n/a	610 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	n/a	609 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	n/a	582 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	n/a	541 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	n/a	613 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	n/a	641 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	n/a	675 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	n/a	699 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	n/a	718 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	n/a	720 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	n/a	704 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	n/a	713 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	n/a	834 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	n/a	885 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	n/a	904 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	n/a	984 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	n/a	937 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	n/a	919 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	n/a	907 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	n/a	892 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	n/a	890 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	n/a	916 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	n/a	883 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	n/a	746 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	n/a	658 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	n/a	618 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	n/a	579 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	n/a	556 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	n/a	584 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	n/a	617 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	n/a	635 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	n/a	668 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	n/a	630 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	n/a	743 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	n/a	728 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	n/a	730 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	n/a	832 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	n/a	843 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	n/a	821 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	n/a	768 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	n/a	775 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	n/a	812 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	n/a	811 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	n/a	812 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	n/a	811 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	n/a	833 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	n/a	821 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	730 MW	742 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	654 MW	662 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	601 MW	605 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	563 MW	565 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	556 MW	561 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	570 MW	582 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	574 MW	593 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	595 MW	634 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	659 MW	721 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	753 MW	832 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	811 MW	900 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	854 MW	887 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	880 MW	907 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	910 MW	949 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	939 MW	967 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	954 MW	975 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	982 MW	1,005 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	951 MW	975 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	941 MW	978 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	933 MW	981 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	918 MW	961 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	902 MW	932 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	868 MW	869 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	790 MW	807 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	694 MW	716 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	625 MW	639 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	612 MW	627 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	583 MW	601 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	571 MW	582 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	596 MW	622 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	639 MW	663 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	704 MW	712 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	748 MW	748 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	765 MW	766 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	788 MW	766 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	763 MW	735 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	805 MW	750 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	892 MW	899 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	894 MW	964 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	918 MW	974 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	955 MW	1,034 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	919 MW	1,016 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	902 MW	1,002 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	902 MW	992 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	897 MW	976 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	885 MW	951 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	912 MW	979 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	864 MW	920 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	758 MW	784 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	689 MW	694 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	644 MW	672 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	606 MW	624 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	593 MW	608 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	611 MW	647 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	658 MW	703 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	714 MW	757 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	759 MW	822 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	780 MW	798 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	785 MW	855 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	799 MW	857 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	839 MW	870 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	974 MW	969 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	978 MW	993 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	928 MW	934 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	934 MW	943 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	921 MW	948 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	905 MW	936 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	898 MW	929 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	890 MW	928 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	861 MW	897 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	904 MW	929 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	861 MW	881 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	756 MW	746 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	677 MW	659 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	629 MW	626 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	588 MW	555 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	577 MW	582 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	617 MW	618 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	660 MW	669 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	638 MW	649 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	597 MW	632 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	588 MW	606 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	631 MW	570 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	680 MW	561 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	750 MW	602 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	878 MW	740 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	914 MW	827 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	920 MW	880 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	950 MW	915 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	931 MW	893 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	914 MW	882 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	912 MW	887 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	899 MW	912 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	876 MW	889 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	925 MW	925 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	892 MW	880 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (622 of 696 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-04. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_mk_2026,
  title = {{North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-04. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/mk/

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North Macedonia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 7 October to 4 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related