Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 12.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Calabria was off by 12.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Calabria came 44 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 79 MW, against average demand of 622 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 53% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error12.8%

Bias+1.9%

Hours within 5%31%

Worst miss398 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-0 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 398 MW (63.0%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,030 MW, reported 632 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Calabria over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:00	609 MW	675 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	641 MW	698 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	646 MW	718 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	740 MW	813 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	758 MW	818 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	792 MW	815 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	772 MW	765 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	731 MW	720 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	635 MW	610 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	525 MW	528 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	473 MW	490 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	438 MW	450 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	425 MW	443 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	414 MW	430 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	421 MW	453 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	431 MW	478 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	485 MW	543 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	566 MW	705 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	633 MW	710 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	624 MW	658 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	581 MW	635 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	537 MW	605 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	530 MW	573 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	566 MW	588 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	569 MW	633 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	622 MW	690 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	699 MW	720 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	760 MW	783 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	792 MW	808 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	801 MW	805 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	784 MW	755 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	713 MW	683 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	646 MW	573 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	522 MW	523 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	429 MW	458 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	395 MW	423 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	378 MW	410 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	367 MW	410 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	372 MW	420 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	389 MW	443 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	429 MW	510 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	522 MW	570 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	589 MW	613 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	602 MW	558 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	578 MW	560 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	567 MW	548 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	574 MW	548 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	543 MW	528 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	536 MW	563 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	567 MW	605 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	614 MW	623 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	703 MW	708 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	718 MW	785 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	724 MW	773 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	694 MW	740 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	626 MW	655 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	568 MW	578 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	487 MW	520 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	436 MW	465 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	408 MW	413 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	394 MW	393 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	381 MW	390 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	383 MW	413 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	394 MW	420 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	388 MW	443 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	430 MW	458 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	511 MW	515 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	631 MW	538 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	600 MW	548 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	596 MW	565 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	625 MW	600 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	593 MW	558 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	551 MW	548 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	571 MW	580 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	563 MW	580 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	612 MW	628 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	654 MW	673 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	679 MW	695 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	646 MW	688 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	600 MW	655 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	549 MW	563 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	471 MW	488 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	428 MW	435 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	385 MW	413 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	402 MW	398 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	389 MW	393 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	399 MW	398 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	433 MW	425 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	499 MW	520 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	598 MW	628 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	741 MW	718 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	757 MW	718 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	753 MW	688 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	789 MW	665 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	740 MW	663 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	722 MW	650 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	723 MW	645 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	705 MW	678 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	690 MW	720 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	754 MW	778 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	785 MW	805 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	803 MW	813 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	774 MW	783 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	717 MW	743 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	650 MW	660 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	553 MW	568 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	515 MW	470 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	483 MW	443 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	485 MW	425 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	492 MW	425 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	483 MW	433 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	513 MW	458 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	595 MW	518 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	729 MW	648 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	785 MW	690 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	760 MW	665 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	751 MW	640 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	758 MW	640 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	702 MW	645 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	659 MW	615 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	693 MW	638 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	775 MW	690 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	740 MW	733 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	762 MW	805 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	792 MW	798 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	812 MW	800 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	774 MW	773 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	715 MW	715 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	635 MW	635 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	555 MW	558 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	449 MW	473 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	415 MW	433 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	406 MW	428 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	400 MW	425 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	405 MW	435 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	453 MW	463 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	545 MW	553 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	694 MW	683 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	795 MW	675 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	740 MW	715 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	739 MW	650 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	722 MW	633 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	708 MW	658 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	702 MW	653 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	746 MW	660 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	798 MW	700 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	787 MW	705 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	814 MW	785 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	801 MW	795 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	825 MW	805 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	814 MW	758 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	776 MW	698 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	697 MW	625 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	608 MW	538 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	541 MW	498 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	501 MW	445 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	488 MW	433 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	491 MW	435 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	515 MW	445 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	573 MW	488 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	682 MW	635 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	811 MW	748 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	835 MW	803 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	785 MW	768 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	771 MW	730 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	732 MW	748 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	708 MW	670 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	700 MW	678 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cala_2026,
  title = {{Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cala/

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Italy Calabria Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related