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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

ERCOT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for ERCOT was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 4,703 MW (8.9%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for ERCOT was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 98% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 4,703 MW (8.9%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, ERCOT came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 768 MW, against average demand of 55,169 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.4%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%98%
Worst miss4,703 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+68 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 4,703 MW (8.9%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 12:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 57,683 MW, reported 52,980 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
ERCOT day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for ERCOT over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for ERCOT over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:0053,455 MW53,165 MW
29 Oct, 10:0055,054 MW54,767 MW
29 Oct, 11:0056,409 MW56,369 MW
29 Oct, 12:0057,714 MW57,832 MW
29 Oct, 13:0058,807 MW59,123 MW
29 Oct, 14:0059,503 MW60,098 MW
29 Oct, 15:0059,665 MW60,763 MW
29 Oct, 16:0059,413 MW60,896 MW
29 Oct, 17:0058,348 MW60,241 MW
29 Oct, 18:0057,854 MW58,734 MW
29 Oct, 19:0057,937 MW58,768 MW
29 Oct, 20:0057,040 MW58,497 MW
29 Oct, 21:0055,675 MW56,802 MW
29 Oct, 22:0053,525 MW54,394 MW
29 Oct, 23:0050,825 MW51,859 MW
30 Oct, 00:0048,535 MW49,538 MW
30 Oct, 01:0047,109 MW47,650 MW
30 Oct, 02:0046,100 MW46,436 MW
30 Oct, 03:0045,609 MW45,582 MW
30 Oct, 04:0045,945 MW45,786 MW
30 Oct, 05:0047,379 MW47,246 MW
30 Oct, 06:0049,640 MW50,006 MW
30 Oct, 07:0051,033 MW51,723 MW
30 Oct, 08:0051,481 MW52,013 MW
30 Oct, 09:0052,450 MW53,433 MW
30 Oct, 10:0053,637 MW54,809 MW
30 Oct, 11:0054,386 MW55,868 MW
30 Oct, 12:0054,938 MW56,609 MW
30 Oct, 13:0055,639 MW57,266 MW
30 Oct, 14:0056,026 MW57,684 MW
30 Oct, 15:0055,991 MW57,739 MW
30 Oct, 16:0055,848 MW57,601 MW
30 Oct, 17:0055,656 MW56,900 MW
30 Oct, 18:0055,216 MW55,436 MW
30 Oct, 19:0055,235 MW55,487 MW
30 Oct, 20:0054,653 MW55,228 MW
30 Oct, 21:0053,741 MW53,706 MW
30 Oct, 22:0052,293 MW52,084 MW
30 Oct, 23:0050,395 MW50,234 MW
31 Oct, 00:0048,388 MW48,577 MW
31 Oct, 01:0046,976 MW46,937 MW
31 Oct, 02:0045,901 MW45,843 MW
31 Oct, 03:0045,243 MW44,920 MW
31 Oct, 04:0044,939 MW44,580 MW
31 Oct, 05:0045,338 MW44,806 MW
31 Oct, 06:0046,031 MW45,597 MW
31 Oct, 07:0047,038 MW46,519 MW
31 Oct, 08:0048,322 MW47,800 MW
31 Oct, 09:0050,089 MW49,923 MW
31 Oct, 10:0051,957 MW51,943 MW
31 Oct, 11:0054,042 MW53,476 MW
31 Oct, 12:0055,559 MW54,652 MW
31 Oct, 13:0057,113 MW55,634 MW
31 Oct, 14:0058,414 MW56,546 MW
31 Oct, 15:0059,331 MW57,494 MW
31 Oct, 16:0059,790 MW58,009 MW
31 Oct, 17:0059,229 MW57,805 MW
31 Oct, 18:0057,502 MW56,542 MW
31 Oct, 19:0056,426 MW55,970 MW
31 Oct, 20:0055,189 MW55,002 MW
31 Oct, 21:0053,634 MW53,538 MW
31 Oct, 22:0051,846 MW51,876 MW
31 Oct, 23:0050,121 MW50,030 MW
1 Nov, 00:0048,805 MW48,361 MW
1 Nov, 01:0047,189 MW46,796 MW
1 Nov, 01:0045,925 MW46,796 MW
1 Nov, 02:0044,978 MW45,769 MW
1 Nov, 03:0044,541 MW44,992 MW
1 Nov, 04:0044,323 MW44,556 MW
1 Nov, 05:0044,156 MW44,523 MW
1 Nov, 06:0044,606 MW44,878 MW
1 Nov, 07:0045,844 MW45,160 MW
1 Nov, 08:0048,242 MW47,596 MW
1 Nov, 09:0050,736 MW50,093 MW
1 Nov, 10:0053,384 MW52,416 MW
1 Nov, 11:0056,001 MW54,635 MW
1 Nov, 12:0058,568 MW56,939 MW
1 Nov, 13:0060,553 MW59,095 MW
1 Nov, 14:0062,242 MW60,782 MW
1 Nov, 15:0062,943 MW61,602 MW
1 Nov, 16:0062,508 MW61,254 MW
1 Nov, 17:0061,673 MW60,438 MW
1 Nov, 18:0061,183 MW60,399 MW
1 Nov, 19:0059,876 MW59,435 MW
1 Nov, 20:0058,455 MW57,946 MW
1 Nov, 21:0056,586 MW56,378 MW
1 Nov, 22:0053,918 MW53,992 MW
1 Nov, 23:0051,295 MW51,417 MW
2 Nov, 00:0049,089 MW49,100 MW
2 Nov, 01:0047,501 MW47,563 MW
2 Nov, 02:0046,620 MW46,725 MW
2 Nov, 03:0046,320 MW46,566 MW
2 Nov, 04:0046,949 MW46,823 MW
2 Nov, 05:0048,480 MW48,136 MW
2 Nov, 06:0050,933 MW51,068 MW
2 Nov, 07:0052,090 MW52,114 MW
2 Nov, 08:0053,736 MW53,882 MW
2 Nov, 09:0055,830 MW55,997 MW
2 Nov, 10:0058,459 MW58,607 MW
2 Nov, 11:0061,162 MW60,505 MW
2 Nov, 12:0063,133 MW62,452 MW
2 Nov, 13:0065,026 MW64,047 MW
2 Nov, 14:0065,822 MW65,065 MW
2 Nov, 15:0065,888 MW65,196 MW
2 Nov, 16:0065,691 MW64,471 MW
2 Nov, 17:0064,815 MW63,425 MW
2 Nov, 18:0064,708 MW63,684 MW
2 Nov, 19:0063,419 MW62,143 MW
2 Nov, 20:0061,837 MW60,686 MW
2 Nov, 21:0059,798 MW59,126 MW
2 Nov, 22:0057,370 MW56,376 MW
2 Nov, 23:0054,693 MW53,650 MW
3 Nov, 00:0052,382 MW51,882 MW
3 Nov, 01:0050,461 MW50,337 MW
3 Nov, 02:0049,261 MW49,188 MW
3 Nov, 03:0048,444 MW48,826 MW
3 Nov, 04:0048,542 MW48,765 MW
3 Nov, 05:0049,522 MW49,770 MW
3 Nov, 06:0051,454 MW52,180 MW
3 Nov, 07:0051,790 MW52,685 MW
3 Nov, 08:0053,375 MW53,645 MW
3 Nov, 09:0054,925 MW54,862 MW
3 Nov, 10:0056,413 MW55,901 MW
3 Nov, 11:0058,048 MW56,893 MW
3 Nov, 12:0058,784 MW57,665 MW
3 Nov, 13:0059,229 MW58,666 MW
3 Nov, 14:0059,628 MW59,318 MW
3 Nov, 15:0059,935 MW59,445 MW
3 Nov, 16:0059,217 MW58,965 MW
3 Nov, 17:0056,810 MW58,242 MW
3 Nov, 18:0055,573 MW57,717 MW
3 Nov, 19:0054,436 MW56,268 MW
3 Nov, 20:0053,105 MW54,883 MW
3 Nov, 21:0051,592 MW53,114 MW
3 Nov, 22:0049,543 MW50,530 MW
3 Nov, 23:0047,695 MW47,976 MW
4 Nov, 00:0046,014 MW45,630 MW
4 Nov, 01:0044,557 MW44,299 MW
4 Nov, 02:0043,671 MW43,160 MW
4 Nov, 03:0043,196 MW42,914 MW
4 Nov, 04:0043,488 MW43,175 MW
4 Nov, 05:0045,080 MW44,691 MW
4 Nov, 06:0047,448 MW47,792 MW
4 Nov, 07:0048,479 MW48,579 MW
4 Nov, 08:0049,578 MW49,346 MW
4 Nov, 09:0050,573 MW50,297 MW
4 Nov, 10:0051,432 MW51,048 MW
4 Nov, 11:0052,471 MW51,809 MW
4 Nov, 12:0053,997 MW53,079 MW
4 Nov, 13:0055,542 MW54,549 MW
4 Nov, 14:0057,110 MW55,735 MW
4 Nov, 15:0058,262 MW56,381 MW
4 Nov, 16:0058,473 MW56,129 MW
4 Nov, 17:0057,438 MW56,075 MW
4 Nov, 18:0056,728 MW55,751 MW
4 Nov, 19:0055,509 MW54,383 MW
4 Nov, 20:0054,333 MW53,201 MW
4 Nov, 21:0052,714 MW51,706 MW
4 Nov, 22:0050,158 MW49,158 MW
4 Nov, 23:0047,477 MW46,801 MW
5 Nov, 00:0045,604 MW45,118 MW
5 Nov, 01:0044,419 MW43,776 MW
5 Nov, 02:0043,779 MW42,959 MW
5 Nov, 03:0043,086 MW42,902 MW
5 Nov, 04:0043,527 MW43,324 MW
5 Nov, 05:0045,163 MW44,932 MW
5 Nov, 06:0047,971 MW48,016 MW
5 Nov, 07:0048,948 MW48,882 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). ERCOT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ercot/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. ERCOT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ercot/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ercot_2026,
  title = {{ERCOT Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ercot/}
}

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