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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for MISO was off by 1.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, MISO came 7 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,347 MW, against average demand of 70,814 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 85% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.9%
Bias+1.5%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss5,043 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,080 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 5,043 MW (5.9%) too high at 14 Oct 2026, 17:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 90,271 MW, reported 85,228 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
MISO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for MISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:0071,962 MW73,955 MW
29 Oct, 11:0072,370 MW74,412 MW
29 Oct, 12:0073,012 MW75,299 MW
29 Oct, 13:0074,051 MW76,520 MW
29 Oct, 14:0075,183 MW77,743 MW
29 Oct, 15:0075,744 MW78,661 MW
29 Oct, 16:0076,279 MW79,347 MW
29 Oct, 17:0077,616 MW79,476 MW
29 Oct, 18:0078,017 MW79,360 MW
29 Oct, 19:0078,481 MW79,260 MW
29 Oct, 20:0077,709 MW78,351 MW
29 Oct, 21:0075,483 MW76,248 MW
29 Oct, 22:0072,989 MW73,156 MW
29 Oct, 23:0069,415 MW69,668 MW
30 Oct, 00:0065,953 MW66,378 MW
30 Oct, 01:0064,085 MW64,808 MW
30 Oct, 02:0062,833 MW64,152 MW
30 Oct, 03:0061,823 MW63,242 MW
30 Oct, 04:0061,630 MW63,135 MW
30 Oct, 05:0062,714 MW64,321 MW
30 Oct, 06:0064,789 MW66,379 MW
30 Oct, 07:0068,757 MW70,796 MW
30 Oct, 08:0071,435 MW73,439 MW
30 Oct, 09:0071,922 MW73,664 MW
30 Oct, 10:0072,154 MW73,606 MW
30 Oct, 11:0072,150 MW74,106 MW
30 Oct, 12:0072,731 MW74,779 MW
30 Oct, 13:0073,484 MW75,572 MW
30 Oct, 14:0073,916 MW76,347 MW
30 Oct, 15:0073,943 MW76,872 MW
30 Oct, 16:0073,868 MW77,255 MW
30 Oct, 17:0074,178 MW77,095 MW
30 Oct, 18:0074,494 MW76,917 MW
30 Oct, 19:0074,894 MW76,521 MW
30 Oct, 20:0073,827 MW75,308 MW
30 Oct, 21:0072,137 MW73,471 MW
30 Oct, 22:0069,833 MW71,253 MW
30 Oct, 23:0067,327 MW68,409 MW
31 Oct, 00:0064,980 MW66,367 MW
31 Oct, 01:0062,769 MW63,886 MW
31 Oct, 02:0061,231 MW61,274 MW
31 Oct, 03:0059,934 MW60,297 MW
31 Oct, 04:0059,212 MW59,881 MW
31 Oct, 05:0059,391 MW60,059 MW
31 Oct, 06:0060,542 MW61,220 MW
31 Oct, 07:0061,999 MW63,153 MW
31 Oct, 08:0064,025 MW65,420 MW
31 Oct, 09:0066,114 MW66,969 MW
31 Oct, 10:0068,144 MW68,107 MW
31 Oct, 11:0069,377 MW69,376 MW
31 Oct, 12:0070,020 MW70,277 MW
31 Oct, 13:0070,497 MW70,888 MW
31 Oct, 14:0070,904 MW71,525 MW
31 Oct, 15:0071,322 MW72,060 MW
31 Oct, 16:0071,322 MW72,372 MW
31 Oct, 17:0070,415 MW72,388 MW
31 Oct, 18:0070,046 MW71,897 MW
31 Oct, 19:0069,926 MW71,463 MW
31 Oct, 20:0069,143 MW70,655 MW
31 Oct, 21:0068,105 MW69,664 MW
31 Oct, 22:0066,741 MW67,926 MW
31 Oct, 23:0065,068 MW65,639 MW
1 Nov, 00:0063,147 MW64,066 MW
1 Nov, 01:0061,488 MW61,268 MW
1 Nov, 01:0060,080 MW58,563 MW
1 Nov, 02:0059,201 MW58,095 MW
1 Nov, 03:0058,690 MW57,598 MW
1 Nov, 04:0058,677 MW57,530 MW
1 Nov, 05:0058,906 MW57,194 MW
1 Nov, 06:0059,636 MW58,207 MW
1 Nov, 07:0061,230 MW59,771 MW
1 Nov, 08:0063,714 MW62,273 MW
1 Nov, 09:0065,874 MW64,225 MW
1 Nov, 10:0067,112 MW65,951 MW
1 Nov, 11:0067,845 MW67,156 MW
1 Nov, 12:0068,863 MW68,300 MW
1 Nov, 13:0069,910 MW69,469 MW
1 Nov, 14:0070,439 MW70,290 MW
1 Nov, 15:0070,403 MW70,852 MW
1 Nov, 16:0071,246 MW71,037 MW
1 Nov, 17:0072,675 MW72,758 MW
1 Nov, 18:0074,472 MW74,295 MW
1 Nov, 19:0074,102 MW74,014 MW
1 Nov, 20:0072,365 MW72,500 MW
1 Nov, 21:0070,083 MW70,316 MW
1 Nov, 22:0067,932 MW68,260 MW
1 Nov, 23:0065,616 MW65,592 MW
2 Nov, 00:0063,731 MW63,802 MW
2 Nov, 01:0061,895 MW62,100 MW
2 Nov, 02:0060,889 MW62,028 MW
2 Nov, 03:0060,155 MW61,053 MW
2 Nov, 04:0060,334 MW61,524 MW
2 Nov, 05:0061,686 MW62,548 MW
2 Nov, 06:0065,120 MW66,450 MW
2 Nov, 07:0069,789 MW70,922 MW
2 Nov, 08:0072,392 MW73,636 MW
2 Nov, 09:0073,906 MW74,942 MW
2 Nov, 10:0075,260 MW75,858 MW
2 Nov, 11:0076,046 MW76,602 MW
2 Nov, 12:0076,679 MW77,252 MW
2 Nov, 13:0077,295 MW77,923 MW
2 Nov, 14:0077,330 MW78,340 MW
2 Nov, 15:0077,215 MW78,407 MW
2 Nov, 16:0077,104 MW78,565 MW
2 Nov, 17:0077,435 MW79,458 MW
2 Nov, 18:0078,624 MW80,282 MW
2 Nov, 19:0078,077 MW79,665 MW
2 Nov, 20:0076,372 MW78,098 MW
2 Nov, 21:0074,578 MW75,774 MW
2 Nov, 22:0072,657 MW73,416 MW
2 Nov, 23:0070,157 MW70,161 MW
3 Nov, 00:0067,496 MW69,257 MW
3 Nov, 01:0065,612 MW66,367 MW
3 Nov, 02:0063,814 MW65,154 MW
3 Nov, 03:0062,575 MW65,529 MW
3 Nov, 04:0062,345 MW65,642 MW
3 Nov, 05:0062,980 MW65,541 MW
3 Nov, 06:0066,139 MW68,651 MW
3 Nov, 07:0070,485 MW72,641 MW
3 Nov, 08:0072,976 MW75,434 MW
3 Nov, 09:0074,050 MW76,675 MW
3 Nov, 10:0075,018 MW77,411 MW
3 Nov, 11:0075,795 MW78,094 MW
3 Nov, 12:0076,658 MW78,973 MW
3 Nov, 13:0077,300 MW79,563 MW
3 Nov, 14:0077,806 MW79,797 MW
3 Nov, 15:0077,876 MW79,633 MW
3 Nov, 16:0077,498 MW79,629 MW
3 Nov, 17:0078,093 MW80,462 MW
3 Nov, 18:0079,412 MW81,340 MW
3 Nov, 19:0078,919 MW80,730 MW
3 Nov, 20:0077,652 MW79,237 MW
3 Nov, 21:0075,514 MW76,735 MW
3 Nov, 22:0073,034 MW74,194 MW
3 Nov, 23:0070,417 MW70,754 MW
4 Nov, 00:0067,494 MW68,289 MW
4 Nov, 01:0065,383 MW66,196 MW
4 Nov, 02:0063,382 MW65,733 MW
4 Nov, 03:0062,347 MW64,945 MW
4 Nov, 04:0062,092 MW64,441 MW
4 Nov, 05:0062,490 MW65,990 MW
4 Nov, 06:0065,456 MW68,125 MW
4 Nov, 07:0069,528 MW71,899 MW
4 Nov, 08:0071,620 MW74,247 MW
4 Nov, 09:0072,551 MW75,062 MW
4 Nov, 10:0073,433 MW75,465 MW
4 Nov, 11:0074,146 MW75,761 MW
4 Nov, 12:0074,856 MW76,064 MW
4 Nov, 13:0075,112 MW76,353 MW
4 Nov, 14:0075,551 MW76,361 MW
4 Nov, 15:0075,450 MW76,059 MW
4 Nov, 16:0075,769 MW76,164 MW
4 Nov, 17:0076,149 MW77,164 MW
4 Nov, 18:0077,180 MW78,234 MW
4 Nov, 19:0076,771 MW77,601 MW
4 Nov, 20:0074,947 MW76,299 MW
4 Nov, 21:0072,866 MW74,149 MW
4 Nov, 22:0070,325 MW71,797 MW
4 Nov, 23:0067,699 MW68,694 MW
5 Nov, 00:0068,181 MW66,504 MW
5 Nov, 01:0066,205 MW63,731 MW
5 Nov, 02:0065,148 MW63,582 MW
5 Nov, 03:0064,650 MW63,200 MW
5 Nov, 04:0065,062 MW63,775 MW
5 Nov, 05:0066,464 MW66,041 MW
5 Nov, 06:0070,049 MW69,053 MW
5 Nov, 07:0074,133 MW73,396 MW
5 Nov, 08:0075,132 MW75,132 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_miso_2026,
  title = {{MISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/miso/}
}

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