PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for PJM was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 83% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,621 MW (9.2%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for PJM was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 83% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.5%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,621 MW (9.2%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00).
Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, PJM came 17 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 2,581 MW, against average demand of 86,367 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 30% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.0%

Bias-1.5%

Hours within 5%83%

Worst miss7,621 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,256 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 7,621 MW (9.2%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 05:00 EDT (UTC-04:00): forecast 90,333 MW, reported 82,712 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for PJM over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:00	89,360 MW	86,549 MW
29 Oct, 11:00	89,890 MW	86,637 MW
29 Oct, 12:00	90,483 MW	87,264 MW
29 Oct, 13:00	90,892 MW	87,999 MW
29 Oct, 14:00	91,183 MW	89,057 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	91,542 MW	90,872 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	92,261 MW	92,856 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	93,471 MW	93,767 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	94,522 MW	94,078 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	94,711 MW	92,567 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	92,895 MW	89,349 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	90,025 MW	84,899 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	85,550 MW	80,491 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	81,892 MW	76,868 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	79,352 MW	75,070 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	78,169 MW	73,763 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	76,847 MW	73,274 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	76,278 MW	74,258 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	76,429 MW	77,687 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	78,388 MW	83,637 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	84,274 MW	88,033 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	88,725 MW	88,758 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	89,422 MW	87,812 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	88,301 MW	86,919 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	89,131 MW	86,500 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	89,769 MW	86,622 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	89,406 MW	86,947 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	89,474 MW	87,400 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	89,753 MW	88,082 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	90,241 MW	89,482 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	90,588 MW	90,928 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	90,915 MW	90,928 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	91,043 MW	90,662 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	90,463 MW	88,998 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	88,404 MW	86,367 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	86,123 MW	82,990 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	82,946 MW	79,125 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	79,397 MW	76,461 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	77,459 MW	74,586 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	76,623 MW	73,358 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	76,511 MW	72,753 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	76,403 MW	73,071 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	76,416 MW	74,620 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	76,616 MW	77,374 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	77,355 MW	80,151 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	80,724 MW	81,631 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	82,732 MW	81,508 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	83,535 MW	80,711 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	84,233 MW	79,880 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	83,895 MW	79,147 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	83,097 MW	78,553 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	82,961 MW	78,478 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	83,078 MW	79,134 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	81,978 MW	81,014 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	82,656 MW	83,496 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	83,068 MW	85,153 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	83,937 MW	86,327 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	83,778 MW	85,575 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	83,334 MW	83,807 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	82,402 MW	81,244 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	80,341 MW	78,290 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	77,978 MW	76,125 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	76,696 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	75,403 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 01:00	75,940 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 02:00	76,127 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 03:00	75,776 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 04:00	76,266 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 05:00	77,348 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 06:00	78,748 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 07:00	79,853 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 08:00	81,033 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 09:00	81,790 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 10:00	81,893 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 11:00	81,705 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 12:00	81,649 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 13:00	81,718 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 14:00	82,633 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 15:00	84,759 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 16:00	88,741 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 17:00	89,689 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 18:00	88,384 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 19:00	86,634 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 20:00	83,881 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 21:00	82,047 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 22:00	80,176 MW	n/a
1 Nov, 23:00	80,176 MW	n/a
2 Nov, 00:00	78,412 MW	75,717 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	77,116 MW	74,843 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	77,252 MW	74,651 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	77,447 MW	76,223 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	78,632 MW	80,105 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	80,815 MW	86,572 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	86,752 MW	90,999 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	90,090 MW	91,544 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	90,207 MW	90,406 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	89,507 MW	89,771 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	89,642 MW	89,531 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	89,687 MW	89,650 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	89,905 MW	89,973 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	90,213 MW	90,189 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	91,070 MW	90,876 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	90,951 MW	92,409 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	92,497 MW	94,945 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	95,516 MW	95,560 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	95,673 MW	95,409 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	94,194 MW	93,610 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	91,850 MW	90,553 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	89,603 MW	86,335 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	86,661 MW	82,332 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	83,331 MW	79,436 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	81,153 MW	76,945 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	79,998 MW	75,728 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	79,062 MW	75,320 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	78,959 MW	76,502 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	79,721 MW	80,101 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	81,762 MW	86,196 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	86,761 MW	90,343 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	89,542 MW	90,745 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	88,961 MW	89,451 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	89,131 MW	88,771 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	90,288 MW	88,741 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	90,859 MW	89,314 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	91,729 MW	90,270 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	92,108 MW	91,159 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	92,491 MW	92,324 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	93,367 MW	94,248 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	94,577 MW	96,141 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	96,923 MW	96,501 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	97,425 MW	96,122 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	95,683 MW	94,038 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	93,077 MW	90,594 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	89,679 MW	86,077 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	85,982 MW	81,602 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	83,854 MW	78,255 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	81,006 MW	75,889 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	79,501 MW	74,358 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	78,473 MW	73,694 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	77,844 MW	74,560 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	78,780 MW	77,743 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	81,160 MW	83,493 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	85,155 MW	87,720 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	88,210 MW	88,719 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	88,128 MW	88,267 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	88,520 MW	88,231 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	89,332 MW	88,438 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	90,406 MW	89,299 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	90,873 MW	90,410 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	92,139 MW	91,444 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	92,505 MW	92,796 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	93,062 MW	94,753 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	94,334 MW	96,656 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	96,657 MW	96,644 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	96,673 MW	95,729 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	95,041 MW	93,186 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	92,719 MW	89,919 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	89,658 MW	85,429 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	86,504 MW	80,948 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	83,002 MW	77,625 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	80,136 MW	75,480 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	78,153 MW	73,955 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	77,081 MW	73,305 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	76,795 MW	74,259 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	77,274 MW	77,527 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	79,231 MW	83,448 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	84,680 MW	87,916 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	88,643 MW	89,490 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	90,540 MW	89,567 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pjm_2026,
  title = {{PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pjm/

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PJM Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

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