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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

SPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SPP was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 6,115 MW (17.7%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SPP was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 6,115 MW (17.7%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 CST (UTC-06:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SPP came 32 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,491 MW, against average demand of 32,011 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 73% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error4.7%
Bias+3.9%
Hours within 5%67%
Worst miss6,115 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,196 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 6,115 MW (17.7%) too high at 2 Nov 2026, 15:00 CST (UTC-06:00): forecast 40,748 MW, reported 34,633 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
SPP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SPP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:0032,089 MW32,227 MW
29 Oct, 10:0032,649 MW32,878 MW
29 Oct, 11:0033,335 MW33,639 MW
29 Oct, 12:0034,182 MW34,410 MW
29 Oct, 13:0035,098 MW35,271 MW
29 Oct, 14:0035,713 MW35,904 MW
29 Oct, 15:0036,067 MW36,367 MW
29 Oct, 16:0036,247 MW36,495 MW
29 Oct, 17:0035,971 MW36,343 MW
29 Oct, 18:0035,575 MW35,806 MW
29 Oct, 19:0035,395 MW35,460 MW
29 Oct, 20:0034,563 MW34,670 MW
29 Oct, 21:0033,518 MW33,488 MW
29 Oct, 22:0032,010 MW32,009 MW
29 Oct, 23:0030,477 MW30,476 MW
30 Oct, 00:0029,310 MW32,233 MW
30 Oct, 01:0028,510 MW31,580 MW
30 Oct, 02:0027,979 MW31,224 MW
30 Oct, 03:0027,741 MW31,084 MW
30 Oct, 04:0027,851 MW31,263 MW
30 Oct, 05:0028,617 MW32,048 MW
30 Oct, 06:0030,211 MW33,586 MW
30 Oct, 07:0031,504 MW34,702 MW
30 Oct, 08:0031,837 MW35,037 MW
30 Oct, 09:0032,263 MW35,358 MW
30 Oct, 10:0032,645 MW35,861 MW
30 Oct, 11:0032,950 MW36,382 MW
30 Oct, 12:0033,217 MW36,768 MW
30 Oct, 13:0033,445 MW37,126 MW
30 Oct, 14:0033,517 MW37,353 MW
30 Oct, 15:0033,445 MW37,463 MW
30 Oct, 16:0033,308 MW37,639 MW
30 Oct, 17:0033,110 MW37,506 MW
30 Oct, 18:0033,052 MW36,816 MW
30 Oct, 19:0032,795 MW36,537 MW
30 Oct, 20:0032,225 MW36,040 MW
30 Oct, 21:0031,506 MW35,407 MW
30 Oct, 22:0030,457 MW34,409 MW
30 Oct, 23:0029,332 MW33,163 MW
31 Oct, 00:0028,315 MW31,561 MW
31 Oct, 01:0027,676 MW30,860 MW
31 Oct, 02:0027,180 MW30,478 MW
31 Oct, 03:0026,955 MW30,368 MW
31 Oct, 04:0026,950 MW30,365 MW
31 Oct, 05:0027,206 MW30,626 MW
31 Oct, 06:0027,723 MW31,214 MW
31 Oct, 07:0028,470 MW32,010 MW
31 Oct, 08:0029,179 MW32,619 MW
31 Oct, 09:0029,940 MW33,180 MW
31 Oct, 10:0030,492 MW33,661 MW
31 Oct, 11:0030,857 MW34,148 MW
31 Oct, 12:0030,957 MW34,413 MW
31 Oct, 13:0030,920 MW34,759 MW
31 Oct, 14:0030,850 MW34,980 MW
31 Oct, 15:0030,852 MW35,287 MW
31 Oct, 16:0030,723 MW35,643 MW
31 Oct, 17:0030,500 MW35,735 MW
31 Oct, 18:0030,287 MW35,255 MW
31 Oct, 19:0030,087 MW35,260 MW
31 Oct, 20:0029,854 MW34,818 MW
31 Oct, 21:0029,561 MW34,252 MW
31 Oct, 22:0028,956 MW33,373 MW
31 Oct, 23:0028,095 MW32,377 MW
1 Nov, 00:0027,404 MW27,813 MW
1 Nov, 01:0026,894 MW27,175 MW
1 Nov, 01:0026,472 MW27,151 MW
1 Nov, 02:0026,233 MW26,703 MW
1 Nov, 03:0026,099 MW26,512 MW
1 Nov, 04:0026,090 MW26,415 MW
1 Nov, 05:0026,371 MW26,552 MW
1 Nov, 06:0026,958 MW27,033 MW
1 Nov, 07:0027,668 MW27,742 MW
1 Nov, 08:0028,711 MW28,475 MW
1 Nov, 09:0029,395 MW29,210 MW
1 Nov, 10:0030,086 MW29,838 MW
1 Nov, 11:0030,614 MW30,447 MW
1 Nov, 12:0031,153 MW31,028 MW
1 Nov, 13:0031,547 MW31,526 MW
1 Nov, 14:0031,770 MW31,944 MW
1 Nov, 15:0031,984 MW32,365 MW
1 Nov, 16:0032,290 MW32,856 MW
1 Nov, 17:0032,879 MW33,158 MW
1 Nov, 18:0032,849 MW33,158 MW
1 Nov, 19:0032,434 MW33,276 MW
1 Nov, 20:0031,707 MW32,585 MW
1 Nov, 21:0030,763 MW31,565 MW
1 Nov, 22:0029,587 MW30,268 MW
1 Nov, 23:0028,497 MW28,992 MW
2 Nov, 00:0027,746 MW32,034 MW
2 Nov, 01:0027,291 MW31,498 MW
2 Nov, 02:0027,138 MW31,176 MW
2 Nov, 03:0027,110 MW31,200 MW
2 Nov, 04:0027,539 MW31,553 MW
2 Nov, 05:0028,529 MW32,490 MW
2 Nov, 06:0030,365 MW34,181 MW
2 Nov, 07:0031,536 MW35,545 MW
2 Nov, 08:0032,199 MW36,261 MW
2 Nov, 09:0032,766 MW37,109 MW
2 Nov, 10:0033,325 MW37,834 MW
2 Nov, 11:0033,790 MW38,609 MW
2 Nov, 12:0034,165 MW39,234 MW
2 Nov, 13:0034,466 MW39,951 MW
2 Nov, 14:0034,623 MW40,542 MW
2 Nov, 15:0034,633 MW40,748 MW
2 Nov, 16:0034,643 MW40,753 MW
2 Nov, 17:0035,070 MW40,338 MW
2 Nov, 18:0035,261 MW39,827 MW
2 Nov, 19:0034,583 MW39,114 MW
2 Nov, 20:0033,799 MW38,049 MW
2 Nov, 21:0032,843 MW37,393 MW
2 Nov, 22:0031,396 MW36,744 MW
2 Nov, 23:0030,020 MW35,139 MW
3 Nov, 00:0029,038 MW28,841 MW
3 Nov, 01:0028,430 MW28,055 MW
3 Nov, 02:0028,027 MW27,664 MW
3 Nov, 03:0027,861 MW27,495 MW
3 Nov, 04:0028,069 MW27,675 MW
3 Nov, 05:0028,930 MW28,557 MW
3 Nov, 06:0030,572 MW30,182 MW
3 Nov, 07:0031,651 MW31,347 MW
3 Nov, 08:0032,124 MW31,757 MW
3 Nov, 09:0032,351 MW31,951 MW
3 Nov, 10:0032,551 MW32,240 MW
3 Nov, 11:0032,611 MW32,432 MW
3 Nov, 12:0032,557 MW32,511 MW
3 Nov, 13:0032,567 MW32,468 MW
3 Nov, 14:0032,398 MW32,421 MW
3 Nov, 15:0032,256 MW32,425 MW
3 Nov, 16:0032,289 MW32,581 MW
3 Nov, 17:0032,769 MW32,586 MW
3 Nov, 18:0032,984 MW32,551 MW
3 Nov, 19:0032,485 MW32,234 MW
3 Nov, 20:0031,885 MW31,514 MW
3 Nov, 21:0031,016 MW30,961 MW
3 Nov, 22:0029,810 MW30,407 MW
3 Nov, 23:0028,724 MW29,207 MW
4 Nov, 00:0027,926 MW28,478 MW
4 Nov, 01:0027,481 MW27,792 MW
4 Nov, 02:0027,198 MW27,655 MW
4 Nov, 03:0027,174 MW27,713 MW
4 Nov, 04:0027,450 MW28,086 MW
4 Nov, 05:0028,388 MW29,051 MW
4 Nov, 06:0030,192 MW30,838 MW
4 Nov, 07:0031,145 MW31,968 MW
4 Nov, 08:0031,358 MW32,267 MW
4 Nov, 09:0031,433 MW32,272 MW
4 Nov, 10:0031,548 MW32,263 MW
4 Nov, 11:0031,545 MW32,245 MW
4 Nov, 12:0031,714 MW32,249 MW
4 Nov, 13:0031,863 MW32,257 MW
4 Nov, 14:0031,832 MW32,196 MW
4 Nov, 15:0031,905 MW32,086 MW
4 Nov, 16:0032,203 MW32,036 MW
4 Nov, 17:0032,499 MW32,424 MW
4 Nov, 18:0032,675 MW32,725 MW
4 Nov, 19:0032,215 MW32,485 MW
4 Nov, 20:0031,656 MW32,199 MW
4 Nov, 21:0030,844 MW31,626 MW
4 Nov, 22:0029,809 MW30,510 MW
4 Nov, 23:0028,752 MW29,477 MW
5 Nov, 00:0028,124 MW31,834 MW
5 Nov, 01:0027,748 MW31,534 MW
5 Nov, 02:0027,519 MW31,409 MW
5 Nov, 03:0027,475 MW31,520 MW
5 Nov, 04:0027,825 MW31,952 MW
5 Nov, 05:0028,962 MW32,958 MW
5 Nov, 06:0030,935 MW34,766 MW
5 Nov, 07:0031,862 MW35,872 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_spp_2026,
  title = {{SPP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/spp/}
}

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