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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for CAISO was off by 8.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 9,728 MW (33.1%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for CAISO was off by 8.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 61% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 9,728 MW (33.1%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, CAISO came 39 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 2,294 MW, against average demand of 26,740 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 22% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

694 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error8.1%
Bias-7.2%
Hours within 5%61%
Worst miss9,728 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-2,003 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 9,728 MW (33.1%) too low at 28 Oct 2026, 11:00 PDT (UTC-07:00): forecast 19,641 MW, reported 29,369 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
CAISO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CAISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 06:002 Nov, 06:003 Nov, 06:004 Nov, 06:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for CAISO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 05:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:0025,220 MW24,772 MW
29 Oct, 08:0026,515 MW24,950 MW
29 Oct, 09:0029,278 MW24,451 MW
29 Oct, 10:0028,976 MW23,613 MW
29 Oct, 11:0029,237 MW22,711 MW
29 Oct, 12:0029,919 MW22,340 MW
29 Oct, 13:0029,320 MW22,610 MW
29 Oct, 14:0029,312 MW23,345 MW
29 Oct, 15:0027,939 MW24,384 MW
29 Oct, 16:0025,960 MW25,179 MW
29 Oct, 17:0026,546 MW26,048 MW
29 Oct, 18:0026,921 MW27,047 MW
29 Oct, 19:0026,618 MW26,750 MW
29 Oct, 20:0026,235 MW26,003 MW
29 Oct, 21:0025,874 MW25,382 MW
29 Oct, 22:0024,798 MW24,008 MW
29 Oct, 23:0023,671 MW22,559 MW
30 Oct, 00:0023,461 MW21,976 MW
30 Oct, 01:0022,285 MW20,958 MW
30 Oct, 02:0021,943 MW20,265 MW
30 Oct, 03:0021,728 MW19,902 MW
30 Oct, 04:0021,548 MW20,111 MW
30 Oct, 05:0022,449 MW21,175 MW
30 Oct, 06:0023,885 MW22,971 MW
30 Oct, 07:0024,857 MW24,448 MW
30 Oct, 08:0025,165 MW24,846 MW
30 Oct, 09:0025,839 MW24,381 MW
30 Oct, 10:0027,276 MW23,311 MW
30 Oct, 11:0027,501 MW22,070 MW
30 Oct, 12:0029,458 MW21,333 MW
30 Oct, 13:0029,622 MW21,341 MW
30 Oct, 14:0028,571 MW21,796 MW
30 Oct, 15:0029,143 MW22,708 MW
30 Oct, 16:0025,457 MW23,659 MW
30 Oct, 17:0025,258 MW25,017 MW
30 Oct, 18:0025,801 MW26,055 MW
30 Oct, 19:0025,683 MW25,780 MW
30 Oct, 20:0025,281 MW25,153 MW
30 Oct, 21:0024,901 MW24,736 MW
30 Oct, 22:0024,039 MW23,742 MW
30 Oct, 23:0022,573 MW22,528 MW
31 Oct, 00:0022,517 MW21,925 MW
31 Oct, 01:0021,440 MW20,978 MW
31 Oct, 02:0020,333 MW20,098 MW
31 Oct, 03:0019,989 MW19,605 MW
31 Oct, 04:0019,851 MW19,392 MW
31 Oct, 05:0020,161 MW19,659 MW
31 Oct, 06:0020,825 MW20,338 MW
31 Oct, 07:0021,341 MW21,242 MW
31 Oct, 08:0022,747 MW21,533 MW
31 Oct, 09:0024,633 MW21,401 MW
31 Oct, 10:0026,329 MW20,909 MW
31 Oct, 11:0026,267 MW20,198 MW
31 Oct, 12:0025,430 MW19,977 MW
31 Oct, 13:0025,672 MW20,414 MW
31 Oct, 14:0024,077 MW21,068 MW
31 Oct, 15:0022,669 MW21,813 MW
31 Oct, 16:0022,675 MW22,287 MW
31 Oct, 17:0023,632 MW23,163 MW
31 Oct, 18:0024,274 MW24,274 MW
31 Oct, 19:0024,062 MW24,062 MW
31 Oct, 20:0023,594 MW23,594 MW
31 Oct, 21:0023,293 MW23,293 MW
31 Oct, 22:0022,627 MW22,627 MW
31 Oct, 23:0021,539 MW21,539 MW
1 Nov, 00:0020,851 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:0020,109 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:0019,321 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:0019,046 MWn/a
1 Nov, 03:0018,865 MWn/a
1 Nov, 04:0018,767 MWn/a
1 Nov, 05:0019,142 MWn/a
1 Nov, 06:0019,652 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:0019,618 MWn/a
1 Nov, 08:0019,796 MWn/a
1 Nov, 09:0021,060 MWn/a
1 Nov, 10:0023,105 MWn/a
1 Nov, 11:0023,920 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:0024,497 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:0025,748 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:0024,699 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:0023,663 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:0023,512 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:0024,941 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:0024,827 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:0024,250 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:0023,601 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:0023,113 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:0022,184 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:0021,084 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:0020,968 MW20,125 MW
2 Nov, 01:0020,596 MW19,412 MW
2 Nov, 02:0019,910 MW18,979 MW
2 Nov, 03:0019,613 MW18,829 MW
2 Nov, 04:0020,163 MW19,365 MW
2 Nov, 05:0021,453 MW20,717 MW
2 Nov, 06:0023,169 MW22,477 MW
2 Nov, 07:0024,451 MW22,840 MW
2 Nov, 08:0027,787 MW21,659 MW
2 Nov, 09:0028,168 MW20,118 MW
2 Nov, 10:0028,653 MW19,000 MW
2 Nov, 11:0028,179 MW18,564 MW
2 Nov, 12:0027,348 MW19,151 MW
2 Nov, 13:0027,634 MW20,480 MW
2 Nov, 14:0027,362 MW22,032 MW
2 Nov, 15:0025,968 MW23,762 MW
2 Nov, 16:0026,652 MW25,445 MW
2 Nov, 17:0027,716 MW26,673 MW
2 Nov, 18:0027,119 MW26,429 MW
2 Nov, 19:0026,442 MW25,830 MW
2 Nov, 20:0025,766 MW25,167 MW
2 Nov, 21:0024,929 MW24,584 MW
2 Nov, 22:0023,546 MW23,222 MW
2 Nov, 23:0022,379 MW21,857 MW
3 Nov, 00:0021,940 MW21,375 MW
3 Nov, 01:0020,996 MW20,544 MW
3 Nov, 02:0020,516 MW19,811 MW
3 Nov, 03:0020,642 MW19,544 MW
3 Nov, 04:0020,774 MW19,944 MW
3 Nov, 05:0021,889 MW21,268 MW
3 Nov, 06:0023,515 MW22,964 MW
3 Nov, 07:0025,664 MW23,556 MW
3 Nov, 08:0026,328 MW22,725 MW
3 Nov, 09:0026,431 MW21,756 MW
3 Nov, 10:0027,620 MW21,044 MW
3 Nov, 11:0027,983 MW20,862 MW
3 Nov, 12:0029,235 MW21,171 MW
3 Nov, 13:0029,894 MW21,993 MW
3 Nov, 14:0028,988 MW22,961 MW
3 Nov, 15:0026,493 MW24,548 MW
3 Nov, 16:0026,591 MW26,436 MW
3 Nov, 17:0027,746 MW27,532 MW
3 Nov, 18:0027,325 MW27,016 MW
3 Nov, 19:0026,714 MW26,304 MW
3 Nov, 20:0025,762 MW25,584 MW
3 Nov, 21:0024,938 MW24,973 MW
3 Nov, 22:0024,118 MW23,590 MW
3 Nov, 23:0023,060 MW22,254 MW
4 Nov, 00:0022,357 MW21,532 MW
4 Nov, 01:0021,461 MW20,670 MW
4 Nov, 02:0020,794 MW19,986 MW
4 Nov, 03:0020,772 MW19,752 MW
4 Nov, 04:0020,701 MW20,149 MW
4 Nov, 05:0021,435 MW21,426 MW
4 Nov, 06:0023,317 MW23,060 MW
4 Nov, 07:0025,651 MW23,451 MW
4 Nov, 08:0026,874 MW22,347 MW
4 Nov, 09:0027,307 MW20,713 MW
4 Nov, 10:0028,521 MW19,400 MW
4 Nov, 11:0027,353 MW18,640 MW
4 Nov, 12:0027,583 MW18,695 MW
4 Nov, 13:0028,686 MW19,762 MW
4 Nov, 14:0028,429 MW21,559 MW
4 Nov, 15:0026,022 MW24,104 MW
4 Nov, 16:0026,487 MW26,169 MW
4 Nov, 17:0028,039 MW27,684 MW
4 Nov, 18:0027,706 MW27,098 MW
4 Nov, 19:0027,197 MW26,334 MW
4 Nov, 20:0026,859 MW25,585 MW
4 Nov, 21:0025,444 MW24,857 MW
4 Nov, 22:0024,177 MW23,491 MW
4 Nov, 23:0023,136 MW22,233 MW
5 Nov, 00:0023,036 MW21,630 MW
5 Nov, 01:0022,113 MW20,837 MW
5 Nov, 02:0021,382 MW20,096 MW
5 Nov, 03:0020,908 MW19,947 MW
5 Nov, 04:0020,990 MW20,310 MW
5 Nov, 05:0022,112 MW21,505 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (694 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_caiso_2026,
  title = {{CAISO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/caiso/}
}

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