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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 5.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 711 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 64% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 5.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 711 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 64% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +5.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SOCO came 36 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,280 MW, against average demand of 22,953 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 94% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

711 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error5.6%
Bias+5.2%
Hours within 5%64%
Worst miss19,751 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1,149 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 19,751 MW (44.2%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 13:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 24,972 MW, reported 44,723 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00)
SOCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 29 Oct, 09:0030 Oct, 09:0031 Oct, 09:001 Nov, 08:002 Nov, 08:003 Nov, 08:004 Nov, 08:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 07:00 CST (UTC-06:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 09:0022,020 MW24,742 MW
29 Oct, 10:0022,163 MW24,980 MW
29 Oct, 11:0022,659 MW25,351 MW
29 Oct, 12:0023,327 MW25,851 MW
29 Oct, 13:0023,947 MW26,226 MW
29 Oct, 14:0024,349 MW26,628 MW
29 Oct, 15:0024,997 MW27,012 MW
29 Oct, 16:0025,706 MW27,049 MW
29 Oct, 17:0026,065 MW26,570 MW
29 Oct, 18:0026,345 MW26,625 MW
29 Oct, 19:0025,900 MW26,290 MW
29 Oct, 20:0024,971 MW25,408 MW
29 Oct, 21:0023,585 MW23,995 MW
29 Oct, 22:0022,059 MW22,454 MW
29 Oct, 23:0020,727 MW21,134 MW
30 Oct, 00:0019,982 MW20,373 MW
30 Oct, 01:0019,353 MW19,753 MW
30 Oct, 02:0019,074 MW19,657 MW
30 Oct, 03:0019,257 MW19,850 MW
30 Oct, 04:0020,127 MW20,671 MW
30 Oct, 05:0021,699 MW22,050 MW
30 Oct, 06:0023,021 MW23,411 MW
30 Oct, 07:0022,955 MW24,001 MW
30 Oct, 08:0021,943 MW24,483 MW
30 Oct, 09:0021,674 MW24,918 MW
30 Oct, 10:0021,772 MW25,255 MW
30 Oct, 11:0022,471 MW25,738 MW
30 Oct, 12:0023,087 MW26,365 MW
30 Oct, 13:0023,568 MW26,896 MW
30 Oct, 14:0024,082 MW27,379 MW
30 Oct, 15:0027,011 MW27,765 MW
30 Oct, 16:0025,461 MW27,572 MW
30 Oct, 17:0025,511 MW26,944 MW
30 Oct, 18:0025,411 MW26,800 MW
30 Oct, 19:0024,610 MW26,076 MW
30 Oct, 20:0023,826 MW25,062 MW
30 Oct, 21:0022,738 MW23,808 MW
30 Oct, 22:0021,560 MW22,698 MW
30 Oct, 23:0020,691 MW21,539 MW
31 Oct, 00:0019,861 MW20,192 MW
31 Oct, 01:0019,152 MW19,501 MW
31 Oct, 02:0018,805 MW19,248 MW
31 Oct, 03:0018,735 MW19,167 MW
31 Oct, 04:0018,840 MW19,237 MW
31 Oct, 05:0019,236 MW19,704 MW
31 Oct, 06:0020,060 MW20,375 MW
31 Oct, 07:0020,473 MW21,172 MW
31 Oct, 08:0020,779 MW22,164 MW
31 Oct, 09:0020,929 MW22,991 MW
31 Oct, 10:0021,110 MW23,614 MW
31 Oct, 11:0021,396 MW24,238 MW
31 Oct, 12:0021,842 MW24,693 MW
31 Oct, 13:0022,172 MW25,090 MW
31 Oct, 14:0022,748 MW25,487 MW
31 Oct, 15:0023,142 MW25,593 MW
31 Oct, 16:0023,237 MW25,738 MW
31 Oct, 17:0023,036 MW25,448 MW
31 Oct, 18:0022,974 MW25,497 MW
31 Oct, 19:0022,644 MW24,966 MW
31 Oct, 20:0022,377 MW24,194 MW
31 Oct, 21:0021,678 MW23,013 MW
31 Oct, 22:0020,874 MW21,776 MW
31 Oct, 23:0019,681 MW20,711 MW
1 Nov, 00:0018,092 MW18,753 MW
1 Nov, 01:0018,475 MW18,468 MW
1 Nov, 01:0018,109 MW18,180 MW
1 Nov, 02:0018,022 MW18,029 MW
1 Nov, 03:0018,207 MW18,062 MW
1 Nov, 04:0018,699 MW18,516 MW
1 Nov, 05:0019,474 MW19,085 MW
1 Nov, 06:0020,469 MW20,174 MW
1 Nov, 07:0021,148 MW21,291 MW
1 Nov, 08:0021,374 MW21,920 MW
1 Nov, 09:0021,431 MW22,441 MW
1 Nov, 10:0021,775 MW22,772 MW
1 Nov, 11:0021,980 MW23,056 MW
1 Nov, 12:0022,229 MW23,245 MW
1 Nov, 13:0022,443 MW23,481 MW
1 Nov, 14:0022,738 MW23,481 MW
1 Nov, 15:0023,330 MW23,765 MW
1 Nov, 16:0024,406 MW23,955 MW
1 Nov, 17:0024,042 MW23,718 MW
1 Nov, 18:0023,615 MW23,434 MW
1 Nov, 19:0022,657 MW22,914 MW
1 Nov, 20:0021,470 MW21,825 MW
1 Nov, 21:0020,323 MW20,785 MW
1 Nov, 22:0019,430 MW19,886 MW
1 Nov, 23:0018,823 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:0018,893 MW19,364 MW
2 Nov, 01:0018,491 MW18,829 MW
2 Nov, 02:0018,471 MW18,965 MW
2 Nov, 03:0018,873 MW19,160 MW
2 Nov, 04:0019,818 MW19,981 MW
2 Nov, 05:0021,683 MW21,710 MW
2 Nov, 06:0022,558 MW23,008 MW
2 Nov, 07:0022,282 MW23,779 MW
2 Nov, 08:0021,935 MW24,166 MW
2 Nov, 09:0022,239 MW24,455 MW
2 Nov, 10:0022,512 MW24,890 MW
2 Nov, 11:0023,225 MW25,260 MW
2 Nov, 12:0023,867 MW25,658 MW
2 Nov, 13:0024,203 MW26,096 MW
2 Nov, 14:0024,560 MW26,453 MW
2 Nov, 15:0025,230 MW26,850 MW
2 Nov, 16:0025,763 MW26,737 MW
2 Nov, 17:0026,483 MW26,907 MW
2 Nov, 18:0026,106 MW26,964 MW
2 Nov, 19:0025,331 MW26,096 MW
2 Nov, 20:0024,304 MW25,083 MW
2 Nov, 21:0023,037 MW23,749 MW
2 Nov, 22:0021,601 MW22,284 MW
2 Nov, 23:0020,550 MW21,214 MW
3 Nov, 00:0019,800 MW20,036 MW
3 Nov, 01:0019,372 MW19,736 MW
3 Nov, 02:0019,224 MW19,549 MW
3 Nov, 03:0019,439 MW19,865 MW
3 Nov, 04:0020,248 MW20,938 MW
3 Nov, 05:0021,819 MW22,468 MW
3 Nov, 06:0022,793 MW23,745 MW
3 Nov, 07:0023,242 MW24,164 MW
3 Nov, 08:0023,439 MW24,793 MW
3 Nov, 09:0023,548 MW25,451 MW
3 Nov, 10:0023,601 MW26,154 MW
3 Nov, 11:0023,981 MW26,763 MW
3 Nov, 12:0024,573 MW27,374 MW
3 Nov, 13:0024,812 MW27,692 MW
3 Nov, 14:0025,040 MW27,986 MW
3 Nov, 15:0025,561 MW28,200 MW
3 Nov, 16:0026,071 MW28,059 MW
3 Nov, 17:0026,924 MW28,105 MW
3 Nov, 18:0026,752 MW27,768 MW
3 Nov, 19:0026,203 MW27,101 MW
3 Nov, 20:0025,213 MW26,022 MW
3 Nov, 21:0024,024 MW24,497 MW
3 Nov, 22:0022,670 MW23,079 MW
3 Nov, 23:0021,562 MW22,109 MW
4 Nov, 00:0020,773 MW21,158 MW
4 Nov, 01:0020,313 MW20,679 MW
4 Nov, 02:0020,025 MW20,052 MW
4 Nov, 03:0020,205 MW20,339 MW
4 Nov, 04:0020,913 MW21,000 MW
4 Nov, 05:0022,552 MW22,419 MW
4 Nov, 06:0023,746 MW23,671 MW
4 Nov, 07:0024,260 MW24,039 MW
4 Nov, 08:0024,730 MW24,843 MW
4 Nov, 09:0025,254 MW25,469 MW
4 Nov, 10:0025,604 MW26,178 MW
4 Nov, 11:0025,971 MW26,793 MW
4 Nov, 12:0026,204 MW27,361 MW
4 Nov, 13:0026,245 MW27,550 MW
4 Nov, 14:0026,444 MW27,692 MW
4 Nov, 15:0026,588 MW27,645 MW
4 Nov, 16:0027,256 MW27,692 MW
4 Nov, 17:0027,864 MW28,071 MW
4 Nov, 18:0027,439 MW27,645 MW
4 Nov, 19:0026,854 MW26,822 MW
4 Nov, 20:0025,918 MW25,777 MW
4 Nov, 21:0024,495 MW24,350 MW
4 Nov, 22:0023,184 MW22,995 MW
4 Nov, 23:0022,058 MW22,140 MW
5 Nov, 00:0021,772 MW21,773 MW
5 Nov, 01:0021,047 MW21,048 MW
5 Nov, 02:0020,720 MW20,597 MW
5 Nov, 03:0020,797 MW20,929 MW
5 Nov, 04:0021,570 MW21,398 MW
5 Nov, 05:0023,294 MW22,888 MW
5 Nov, 06:0024,406 MW23,832 MW
5 Nov, 07:0025,021 MW24,478 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (711 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_soco_2026,
  title = {{SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/soco/}
}

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