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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

SOCO Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 21 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 13,299 MW (47.2%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 15:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/Chicago).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SOCO was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 688 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 13,299 MW (47.2%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 15:00 CDT (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SOCO came 12 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 858 MW, against average demand of 32,698 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 40% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

688 hours from 21 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.6%
Bias+0.9%
Hours within 5%86%
Worst miss13,299 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+267 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 13,299 MW (47.2%) too high at 16 Sept 2026, 15:00 CDT (UTC-05:00): forecast 41,500 MW, reported 28,201 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 20:00 CDT (UTC-05:00)
SOCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 20:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 12,500 25,000 37,500 50,000 13 Sept, 21:0014 Sept, 21:0015 Sept, 21:0016 Sept, 21:0017 Sept, 21:0018 Sept, 21:0019 Sept, 21:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SOCO over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 20:00 CDT (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
SOCO day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 21:0031,748 MW32,424 MW
13 Sept, 22:0029,549 MW30,028 MW
13 Sept, 23:0027,621 MW27,903 MW
14 Sept, 00:0025,766 MW26,275 MW
14 Sept, 01:0024,527 MW25,046 MW
14 Sept, 02:0023,793 MW24,387 MW
14 Sept, 03:0023,733 MW24,535 MW
14 Sept, 04:0024,301 MW25,310 MW
14 Sept, 05:0025,651 MW26,306 MW
14 Sept, 06:0026,304 MW27,643 MW
14 Sept, 07:0026,200 MW28,840 MW
14 Sept, 08:0027,010 MW30,410 MW
14 Sept, 09:0029,426 MW32,946 MW
14 Sept, 10:0032,536 MW35,899 MW
14 Sept, 11:0035,295 MW38,559 MW
14 Sept, 12:0037,826 MW40,926 MW
14 Sept, 13:0039,459 MW42,279 MW
14 Sept, 14:0040,381 MW43,349 MW
14 Sept, 15:0041,167 MW43,844 MW
14 Sept, 16:0041,140 MW43,646 MW
14 Sept, 17:0041,090 MW42,364 MW
14 Sept, 18:0040,142 MW40,927 MW
14 Sept, 19:0038,813 MW39,332 MW
14 Sept, 20:0036,386 MW37,577 MW
14 Sept, 21:0033,732 MW34,903 MW
14 Sept, 22:0031,378 MW32,500 MW
14 Sept, 23:0029,121 MW30,255 MW
15 Sept, 00:0027,463 MW27,888 MW
15 Sept, 01:0026,089 MW26,527 MW
15 Sept, 02:0025,298 MW25,974 MW
15 Sept, 03:0025,020 MW26,148 MW
15 Sept, 04:0025,322 MW26,615 MW
15 Sept, 05:0026,576 MW27,707 MW
15 Sept, 06:0027,133 MW28,617 MW
15 Sept, 07:0027,612 MW29,379 MW
15 Sept, 08:0030,450 MW31,066 MW
15 Sept, 09:0030,534 MW33,280 MW
15 Sept, 10:0033,778 MW35,877 MW
15 Sept, 11:0035,620 MW38,751 MW
15 Sept, 12:0037,247 MW40,898 MW
15 Sept, 13:0038,899 MW42,179 MW
15 Sept, 14:0039,900 MW42,940 MW
15 Sept, 15:0039,353 MW43,112 MW
15 Sept, 16:0039,810 MW42,754 MW
15 Sept, 17:0039,348 MW41,477 MW
15 Sept, 18:0038,542 MW39,929 MW
15 Sept, 19:0037,366 MW38,725 MW
15 Sept, 20:0034,894 MW36,971 MW
15 Sept, 21:0033,154 MW34,646 MW
15 Sept, 22:0032,349 MW32,128 MW
15 Sept, 23:0029,723 MW30,029 MW
16 Sept, 00:0027,305 MW28,479 MW
16 Sept, 01:0026,287 MW27,315 MW
16 Sept, 02:0025,827 MW26,279 MW
16 Sept, 03:0025,184 MW25,906 MW
16 Sept, 04:0025,527 MW26,217 MW
16 Sept, 05:0026,597 MW27,272 MW
16 Sept, 06:0027,192 MW28,017 MW
16 Sept, 07:0027,768 MW28,638 MW
16 Sept, 08:0027,085 MW29,923 MW
16 Sept, 09:0028,694 MW32,152 MW
16 Sept, 10:0030,984 MW34,438 MW
16 Sept, 11:0033,499 MW36,893 MW
16 Sept, 12:0035,159 MW38,964 MW
16 Sept, 13:0036,263 MW40,285 MW
16 Sept, 14:0037,388 MW41,222 MW
16 Sept, 15:0028,201 MW41,500 MW
16 Sept, 16:0041,348 MW41,224 MW
16 Sept, 17:0038,517 MW40,131 MW
16 Sept, 18:0037,425 MW38,553 MW
16 Sept, 19:0035,986 MW37,312 MW
16 Sept, 20:0034,113 MW35,479 MW
16 Sept, 21:0032,258 MW33,267 MW
16 Sept, 22:0029,937 MW31,150 MW
16 Sept, 23:0027,524 MW29,124 MW
17 Sept, 00:0026,256 MW26,256 MW
17 Sept, 01:0025,061 MW25,062 MW
17 Sept, 02:0024,274 MW24,216 MW
17 Sept, 03:0023,846 MW24,452 MW
17 Sept, 04:0024,245 MW24,913 MW
17 Sept, 05:0025,356 MW26,167 MW
17 Sept, 06:0026,061 MW27,012 MW
17 Sept, 07:0026,794 MW27,707 MW
17 Sept, 08:0028,258 MW28,949 MW
17 Sept, 09:0030,444 MW31,085 MW
17 Sept, 10:0032,817 MW33,242 MW
17 Sept, 11:0035,226 MW35,587 MW
17 Sept, 12:0037,677 MW37,732 MW
17 Sept, 13:0039,325 MW39,878 MW
17 Sept, 14:0040,519 MW41,219 MW
17 Sept, 15:0041,355 MW42,064 MW
17 Sept, 16:0041,370 MW41,766 MW
17 Sept, 17:0039,968 MW40,425 MW
17 Sept, 18:0038,181 MW38,636 MW
17 Sept, 19:0036,703 MW36,798 MW
17 Sept, 20:0034,458 MW35,010 MW
17 Sept, 21:0032,015 MW32,724 MW
17 Sept, 22:0029,658 MW30,787 MW
17 Sept, 23:0027,524 MW28,850 MW
18 Sept, 00:0025,446 MWn/a
18 Sept, 01:0024,267 MWn/a
18 Sept, 02:0023,468 MWn/a
18 Sept, 03:0023,275 MWn/a
18 Sept, 04:0023,689 MWn/a
18 Sept, 05:0025,016 MWn/a
18 Sept, 06:0025,484 MWn/a
18 Sept, 07:0025,221 MWn/a
18 Sept, 08:0026,150 MWn/a
18 Sept, 09:0028,568 MWn/a
18 Sept, 10:0031,491 MWn/a
18 Sept, 11:0034,286 MWn/a
18 Sept, 12:0037,005 MWn/a
18 Sept, 13:0036,106 MWn/a
18 Sept, 14:0039,288 MWn/a
18 Sept, 15:0040,343 MWn/a
18 Sept, 16:0040,709 MWn/a
18 Sept, 17:0039,673 MWn/a
18 Sept, 18:0039,497 MWn/a
18 Sept, 19:0037,892 MWn/a
18 Sept, 20:0035,533 MWn/a
18 Sept, 21:0032,916 MWn/a
18 Sept, 22:0031,134 MWn/a
18 Sept, 23:0028,996 MWn/a
19 Sept, 00:0027,610 MW27,870 MW
19 Sept, 01:0026,205 MW26,475 MW
19 Sept, 02:0025,164 MW25,113 MW
19 Sept, 03:0024,597 MW24,416 MW
19 Sept, 04:0024,231 MW24,105 MW
19 Sept, 05:0024,362 MW24,230 MW
19 Sept, 06:0024,294 MW24,478 MW
19 Sept, 07:0024,610 MW25,596 MW
19 Sept, 08:0026,237 MW27,769 MW
19 Sept, 09:0029,027 MW30,539 MW
19 Sept, 10:0030,980 MW34,016 MW
19 Sept, 11:0033,602 MW36,798 MW
19 Sept, 12:0035,973 MW39,443 MW
19 Sept, 13:0037,413 MW40,810 MW
19 Sept, 14:0038,249 MW41,493 MW
19 Sept, 15:0038,588 MW41,800 MW
19 Sept, 16:0038,051 MW41,244 MW
19 Sept, 17:0036,761 MW39,630 MW
19 Sept, 18:0035,922 MW37,767 MW
19 Sept, 19:0033,427 MW36,152 MW
19 Sept, 20:0032,107 MW34,103 MW
19 Sept, 21:0030,452 MW31,781 MW
19 Sept, 22:0028,684 MW29,644 MW
19 Sept, 23:0026,988 MW27,608 MW
20 Sept, 00:0025,858 MW25,859 MW
20 Sept, 01:0024,753 MW24,753 MW
20 Sept, 02:0023,937 MW24,064 MW
20 Sept, 03:0023,378 MW23,360 MW
20 Sept, 04:0023,180 MW23,029 MW
20 Sept, 05:0023,195 MW23,195 MW
20 Sept, 06:0023,434 MW23,526 MW
20 Sept, 07:0024,423 MW24,354 MW
20 Sept, 08:0026,238 MW26,258 MW
20 Sept, 09:0028,137 MW29,032 MW
20 Sept, 10:0030,341 MW31,723 MW
20 Sept, 11:0033,037 MW34,124 MW
20 Sept, 12:0035,675 MW36,318 MW
20 Sept, 13:0037,728 MW37,891 MW
20 Sept, 14:0039,175 MW38,885 MW
20 Sept, 15:0039,739 MW39,464 MW
20 Sept, 16:0039,490 MW39,547 MW
20 Sept, 17:0038,173 MW38,388 MW
20 Sept, 18:0036,529 MW36,897 MW
20 Sept, 19:0035,273 MW35,531 MW
20 Sept, 20:0033,233 MW33,875 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (688 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.