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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 664 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 267 MW (16.7%) too high at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 (UTC+04:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Tbilisi).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 664 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 267 MW (16.7%) too high at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 (UTC+04:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Georgia came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 57 MW, against average demand of 1,625 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 51% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

664 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias+0.5%
Hours within 5%78%
Worst miss267 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 267 MW (16.7%) too high at 7 Sept 2026, 17:00 (UTC+04:00): forecast 1,865 MW, reported 1,598 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00)
Georgia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 13 Sept, 16:0014 Sept, 16:0015 Sept, 16:0016 Sept, 16:0017 Sept, 16:0018 Sept, 16:0019 Sept, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Georgia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 16:001,715 MW1,690 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,782 MW1,725 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,799 MW1,745 MW
13 Sept, 19:001,863 MW1,775 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,912 MW1,850 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,864 MW1,810 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,777 MW1,715 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,655 MW1,585 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,542 MW1,565 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,441 MW1,440 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,360 MW1,375 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,323 MW1,345 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,314 MW1,310 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,301 MW1,315 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,298 MW1,340 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,329 MW1,375 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,461 MW1,495 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,577 MW1,630 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,673 MW1,690 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,684 MW1,710 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,680 MW1,720 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,715 MW1,715 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,771 MW1,745 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,819 MW1,780 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,873 MW1,820 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,898 MW1,855 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,889 MW1,860 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,946 MW1,890 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,976 MW1,970 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,895 MW1,940 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,826 MW1,840 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,692 MW1,730 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,539 MW1,555 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,438 MW1,450 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,355 MW1,370 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,308 MW1,330 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,294 MW1,320 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,286 MW1,315 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,285 MW1,305 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,347 MW1,235 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,470 MW1,400 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,587 MW1,555 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,643 MW1,615 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,651 MW1,625 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,657 MW1,600 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,636 MW1,580 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,679 MW1,610 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,723 MW1,660 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,749 MW1,700 MW
15 Sept, 17:001,784 MW1,740 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,786 MW1,750 MW
15 Sept, 19:001,855 MW1,820 MW
15 Sept, 20:001,884 MW1,880 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,842 MW1,820 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,710 MW1,730 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,590 MW1,620 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,494 MW1,545 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,412 MW1,445 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,321 MW1,360 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,295 MW1,310 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,282 MW1,295 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,282 MW1,290 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,291 MW1,290 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,312 MW1,350 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,509 MW1,475 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,633 MW1,595 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,663 MW1,650 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,668 MW1,660 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,665 MW1,665 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,671 MW1,705 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,716 MW1,765 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,789 MW1,815 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,856 MW1,870 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,856 MW1,890 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,776 MW1,880 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,831 MW1,945 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,872 MW1,975 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,853 MW1,910 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,753 MW1,835 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,640 MW1,700 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,554 MW1,500 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,447 MW1,415 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,318 MW1,325 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,347 MW1,300 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,310 MW1,285 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,314 MW1,280 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,306 MW1,290 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,372 MW1,350 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,512 MW1,500 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,646 MW1,625 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,711 MW1,660 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,725 MW1,665 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,723 MW1,670 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,724 MW1,660 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,759 MW1,705 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,805 MW1,755 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,867 MW1,780 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,919 MW1,815 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,900 MW1,820 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,984 MW1,890 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,980 MW1,925 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,921 MW1,880 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,825 MW1,755 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,716 MW1,630 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,589 MW1,555 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,489 MW1,450 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,404 MW1,360 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,383 MW1,340 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,367 MW1,315 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,354 MW1,315 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,355 MW1,310 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,422 MW1,375 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,585 MW1,515 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,707 MW1,655 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,772 MW1,720 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,733 MW1,730 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,749 MW1,725 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,731 MW1,730 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,828 MW1,775 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,907 MW1,830 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,898 MW1,880 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,894 MW1,870 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,878 MW1,830 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,899 MW1,905 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,820 MW1,935 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,810 MW1,880 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,727 MW1,770 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,601 MW1,650 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,478 MW1,525 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,374 MW1,430 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,347 MW1,345 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,328 MW1,320 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,307 MW1,295 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,319 MW1,290 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,322 MW1,275 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,345 MW1,290 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,388 MW1,420 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,607 MW1,530 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,686 MW1,575 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,749 MW1,605 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,749 MW1,620 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,697 MW1,615 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,655 MW1,630 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,632 MW1,660 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,654 MW1,690 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,648 MW1,720 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,664 MW1,710 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,788 MW1,780 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,777 MW1,830 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,734 MW1,785 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,651 MW1,695 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,560 MW1,575 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,464 MW1,490 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,393 MW1,395 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,345 MW1,325 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,296 MW1,305 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,282 MW1,280 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,279 MW1,285 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,278 MW1,260 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,259 MW1,270 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,335 MW1,370 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,414 MW1,460 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,464 MW1,510 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,502 MW1,545 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,591 MW1,560 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,598 MW1,575 MW
20 Sept, 14:001,638 MW1,590 MW
20 Sept, 15:001,675 MW1,620 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (664 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.