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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 7 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 564 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00). Dates and times are local (Asia/Tbilisi).

This grid has 564 compared hours out of the 714 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Georgia was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 564 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Georgia came 19 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 44 MW, against average demand of 1,573 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 47% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

564 hours from 7 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%86%
Worst miss440 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 440 MW (26.2%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 05:00 (UTC+04:00): forecast 1,240 MW, reported 1,680 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 16:00 (UTC+04:00)
Georgia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 16:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 17:0030 Oct, 17:0031 Oct, 17:001 Nov, 17:002 Nov, 17:003 Nov, 17:004 Nov, 17:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Georgia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 16:00 (UTC+04:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 17:001,874 MW1,870 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,935 MW1,960 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,916 MW1,990 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,893 MW1,960 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,838 MW1,930 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,748 MW1,860 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,622 MW1,740 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,546 MW1,540 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,436 MW1,440 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,385 MW1,370 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,358 MW1,345 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,327 MW1,330 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,325 MW1,340 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,372 MW1,375 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,417 MW1,435 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,551 MW1,570 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,740 MW1,730 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,833 MW1,795 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,879 MW1,815 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,881 MW1,795 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,855 MW1,765 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,865 MW1,795 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,879 MW1,810 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,869 MW1,830 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,865 MW1,855 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,973 MW1,965 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,985 MW1,980 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,925 MW1,955 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,877 MW1,910 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,802 MW1,820 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,672 MW1,700 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,559 MW1,540 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,446 MW1,400 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,369 MW1,340 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,337 MW1,325 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,305 MW1,305 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,314 MW1,310 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,324 MW1,340 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,362 MW1,380 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,457 MW1,490 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,567 MW1,670 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,618 MW1,800 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,645 MW1,835 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,631 MW1,825 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,599 MW1,805 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,635 MW1,810 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,689 MW1,820 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,751 MW1,835 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,779 MW1,850 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,906 MW1,905 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,906 MW1,890 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,854 MW1,860 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,823 MW1,810 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,755 MW1,720 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,637 MW1,620 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,539 MW1,550 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,437 MW1,410 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,366 MW1,330 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,339 MW1,315 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,312 MW1,295 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,304 MW1,300 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,318 MW1,310 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,341 MW1,350 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,401 MW1,440 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,487 MW1,590 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,541 MW1,740 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,524 MW1,780 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,522 MW1,775 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,508 MW1,755 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,543 MW1,760 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,618 MW1,770 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,667 MW1,790 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,704 MW1,820 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,861 MW1,885 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,902 MW1,870 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,883 MW1,840 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,850 MW1,790 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,747 MW1,700 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,633 MW1,600 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,512 MW1,520 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,411 MW1,415 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,358 MW1,340 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,322 MW1,320 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,307 MW1,305 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,323 MW1,310 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,341 MW1,320 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,419 MW1,380 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,566 MW1,540 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,693 MW1,720 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,723 MW1,835 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,693 MW1,875 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,648 MW1,870 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,633 MW1,840 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,667 MW1,850 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,660 MW1,855 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,689 MW1,850 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,751 MW1,875 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,879 MW1,940 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,899 MW1,930 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,885 MW1,900 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,858 MW1,830 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,753 MW1,740 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,625 MW1,640 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,507 MW1,570 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,395 MW1,450 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,337 MW1,370 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,304 MW1,335 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,294 MW1,315 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,282 MW1,320 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,325 MW1,340 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,385 MW1,415 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,535 MW1,565 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,652 MW1,685 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,647 MW1,710 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,602 MW1,685 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,571 MW1,635 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,525 MW1,625 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,547 MW1,655 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,605 MW1,735 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,681 MW1,785 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,759 MW1,815 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,904 MW1,965 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,922 MW1,990 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,908 MW1,980 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,841 MW1,940 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,744 MW1,845 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,625 MW1,735 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,498 MWn/a
4 Nov, 01:001,400 MWn/a
4 Nov, 02:001,340 MWn/a
4 Nov, 03:001,316 MWn/a
4 Nov, 04:001,278 MWn/a
4 Nov, 05:001,295 MWn/a
4 Nov, 06:001,334 MWn/a
4 Nov, 07:001,407 MWn/a
4 Nov, 08:001,542 MWn/a
4 Nov, 09:001,678 MWn/a
4 Nov, 10:001,721 MWn/a
4 Nov, 11:001,722 MWn/a
4 Nov, 12:001,682 MWn/a
4 Nov, 13:001,651 MWn/a
4 Nov, 14:001,672 MWn/a
4 Nov, 15:001,734 MWn/a
4 Nov, 16:001,766 MWn/a
4 Nov, 17:001,835 MWn/a
4 Nov, 18:001,928 MWn/a
4 Nov, 19:001,939 MWn/a
4 Nov, 20:001,905 MWn/a
4 Nov, 21:001,869 MWn/a
4 Nov, 22:001,707 MWn/a
4 Nov, 23:001,649 MWn/a
5 Nov, 00:001,521 MW1,535 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,420 MW1,430 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,359 MW1,365 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,331 MW1,350 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,302 MW1,335 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,304 MW1,340 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,335 MW1,380 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,390 MW1,440 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,518 MW1,575 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,638 MW1,710 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,701 MW1,800 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,779 MW1,835 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,788 MW1,830 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,757 MW1,820 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,830 MW1,850 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,874 MW1,870 MW
5 Nov, 16:001,892 MW1,850 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (564 of 714 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ge_2026,
  title = {{Georgia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ge/}
}

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