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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 9.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 36% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 682 MW (84.1%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 20:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 9.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 36% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +3.4%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 682 MW (84.1%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 20:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North-Central (SE2) came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 136 MW, against average demand of 1,500 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 58% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error9.6%
Bias+3.4%
Hours within 5%36%
Worst miss682 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+31 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 682 MW (84.1%) too high at 29 Aug 2026, 20:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,493 MW, reported 811 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Sweden North-Central (SE2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Sweden North-Central (SE2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:001,574 MW1,445 MW
13 Sept, 15:001,717 MW1,474 MW
13 Sept, 16:001,578 MW1,528 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,829 MW1,582 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,767 MW1,608 MW
13 Sept, 19:001,485 MW1,643 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,453 MW1,655 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,508 MW1,635 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,594 MW1,597 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,437 MW1,538 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,196 MW1,519 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,251 MW1,489 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,476 MW1,484 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,506 MW1,496 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,359 MW1,517 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,627 MW1,558 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,825 MW1,673 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,919 MW1,757 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,633 MW1,755 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,626 MW1,744 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,684 MW1,708 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,648 MW1,688 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,641 MW1,660 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,520 MW1,644 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,571 MW1,638 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,545 MW1,655 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,555 MW1,678 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,486 MW1,706 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,237 MW1,698 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,381 MW1,702 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,397 MW1,702 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,484 MW1,667 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,536 MW1,619 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,586 MW1,563 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,382 MW1,512 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,234 MW1,482 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,198 MW1,460 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,281 MW1,456 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,273 MW1,467 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,384 MW1,510 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,638 MW1,602 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,702 MW1,688 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,715 MW1,715 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,620 MW1,715 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,523 MW1,699 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,674 MW1,681 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,635 MW1,663 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,553 MW1,655 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,565 MW1,664 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,493 MW1,680 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,316 MW1,705 MW
15 Sept, 17:001,724 MW1,734 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,645 MW1,723 MW
15 Sept, 19:001,788 MW1,717 MW
15 Sept, 20:001,698 MW1,703 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,678 MW1,667 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,319 MW1,608 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,359 MW1,548 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,353 MW1,492 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,494 MW1,452 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,475 MW1,430 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,479 MW1,427 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,774 MW1,444 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,683 MW1,484 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,718 MW1,583 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,417 MW1,671 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,731 MW1,699 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,499 MW1,702 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,540 MW1,691 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,800 MW1,676 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,789 MW1,660 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,804 MW1,656 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,687 MW1,647 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,935 MW1,664 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,886 MW1,688 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,824 MW1,714 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,550 MW1,701 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,818 MW1,702 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,804 MW1,691 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,638 MW1,664 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,606 MW1,606 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,503 MW1,550 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,084 MW1,504 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,319 MW1,478 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,317 MW1,462 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,268 MW1,458 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,602 MW1,480 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,853 MW1,527 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,730 MW1,626 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,668 MW1,702 MW
17 Sept, 08:002,057 MW1,716 MW
17 Sept, 09:002,245 MW1,711 MW
17 Sept, 10:002,205 MW1,679 MW
17 Sept, 11:002,303 MW1,665 MW
17 Sept, 12:002,096 MW1,646 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,877 MW1,636 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,593 MW1,620 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,684 MW1,637 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,699 MW1,669 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,774 MW1,700 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,900 MW1,704 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,727 MW1,706 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,765 MW1,711 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,853 MW1,679 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,744 MW1,606 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,598 MW1,542 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,223 MW1,519 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,170 MW1,486 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,303 MW1,472 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,451 MW1,473 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,482 MW1,481 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,323 MW1,523 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,648 MW1,621 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,763 MW1,716 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,671 MW1,727 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,730 MW1,724 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,707 MW1,702 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,641 MW1,684 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,546 MW1,650 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,551 MW1,635 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,573 MW1,631 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,572 MW1,646 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,576 MW1,660 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,703 MW1,684 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,644 MW1,679 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,288 MW1,677 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,255 MW1,653 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,347 MW1,621 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,405 MW1,567 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,375 MW1,519 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,254 MW1,489 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,289 MW1,465 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,366 MW1,437 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,374 MW1,436 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,424 MW1,452 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,369 MW1,462 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,398 MW1,457 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,444 MW1,502 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,551 MW1,554 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,639 MW1,569 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,546 MW1,565 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,430 MW1,546 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,462 MW1,520 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,469 MW1,506 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,502 MW1,515 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,504 MW1,535 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,337 MW1,577 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,262 MW1,620 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,177 MW1,609 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,676 MW1,594 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,956 MW1,585 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,612 MW1,556 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,384 MW1,524 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,395 MW1,483 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,355 MW1,445 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,202 MW1,422 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,174 MW1,412 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,495 MW1,414 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,528 MW1,417 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,691 MW1,430 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,564 MW1,427 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,462 MW1,450 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,699 MW1,481 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,692 MW1,496 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,616 MW1,484 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,470 MW1,479 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,325 MW1,464 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,289 MW1,459 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.