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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 18.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 21% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +16.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) was off by 18.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 21% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +16.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North-Central (SE2) came 46 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 260 MW, against average demand of 1,607 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 84% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error18.4%
Bias+16.7%
Hours within 5%21%
Worst miss1,066 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+226 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 1,066 MW (107.1%) too high at 19 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,061 MW, reported 995 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North-Central (SE2) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North-Central (SE2) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:001,684 MW1,867 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,709 MW1,904 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,716 MW1,933 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,407 MW1,953 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,428 MW1,924 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,608 MW1,897 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,723 MW1,849 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,701 MW1,797 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,622 MW1,725 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,423 MW1,654 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,202 MW1,615 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,122 MW1,600 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,066 MW1,596 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,155 MW1,599 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,240 MW1,633 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,380 MW1,739 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,581 MW1,854 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,507 MW1,907 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,603 MW1,928 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,566 MW1,925 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,855 MW1,911 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,914 MW1,883 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,138 MW1,848 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,981 MW1,833 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,949 MW1,845 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,014 MW1,878 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,457 MW1,935 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,268 MW1,974 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,342 MW1,960 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,787 MW1,945 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,027 MW1,896 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,174 MW1,843 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,070 MW1,777 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,942 MW1,719 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,921 MW1,630 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,770 MW1,626 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,694 MW1,621 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,612 MW1,638 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,504 MW1,661 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,520 MW1,711 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,623 MW1,751 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,575 MW1,751 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,560 MW1,792 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,316 MW1,790 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,151 MW1,788 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,311 MW1,772 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,467 MW1,751 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,626 MW1,722 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,558 MW1,762 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,477 MW1,822 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,690 MW1,880 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,709 MW1,911 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,808 MW1,894 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,844 MW1,865 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,669 MW1,809 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,686 MW1,770 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,858 MW1,737 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,701 MW1,704 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,722 MW1,679 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,583 MW1,676 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,627 MW1,654 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,676 MW1,643 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,802 MW1,654 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,582 MW1,690 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,367 MW1,715 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,127 MW1,728 MW
1 Nov, 08:00980 MW1,754 MW
1 Nov, 09:00955 MW1,778 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,062 MW1,794 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,109 MW1,792 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,265 MW1,775 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,262 MW1,782 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,593 MW1,801 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,611 MW1,849 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,760 MW1,910 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,498 MW1,949 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,531 MW1,951 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,499 MW1,933 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,381 MW1,913 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,281 MW1,859 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,228 MW1,807 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,291 MW1,768 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,281 MW1,795 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,340 MW1,785 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,366 MW1,790 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,334 MW1,808 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,307 MW1,840 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,313 MW1,924 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,557 MW2,048 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,652 MW2,118 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,805 MW2,124 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,981 MW2,110 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,787 MW2,089 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,870 MW2,064 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,841 MW2,044 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,923 MW2,030 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,085 MW2,032 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,963 MW2,084 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,766 MW2,124 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,706 MW2,141 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,656 MW2,131 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,636 MW2,109 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,797 MW2,085 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,740 MW2,038 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,593 MW1,978 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,588 MW1,902 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,412 MW1,861 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,560 MW1,818 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,464 MW1,809 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,364 MW1,803 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,448 MW1,826 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,472 MW1,904 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,574 MW2,021 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,425 MW2,092 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,450 MW2,088 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,501 MW2,062 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,658 MW2,040 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,713 MW2,027 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,461 MW2,013 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,791 MW2,010 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,976 MW2,024 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,937 MW2,065 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,736 MW2,100 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,731 MW2,111 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,459 MW2,087 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,788 MW2,060 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,035 MW2,017 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,834 MW1,957 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,514 MW1,872 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,344 MW1,831 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,152 MW1,781 MW
4 Nov, 01:00986 MW1,738 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,313 MW1,728 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,328 MW1,726 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,488 MW1,756 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,589 MW1,852 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,533 MW1,988 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,601 MW2,051 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,617 MW2,059 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,578 MW2,043 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,438 MW2,019 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,521 MW1,996 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,724 MW1,975 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,838 MW1,971 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,872 MW1,973 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,930 MW2,009 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,740 MW2,043 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,760 MW2,060 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,752 MW2,031 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,721 MW2,009 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,773 MW1,977 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,782 MW1,921 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,798 MW1,845 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,688 MW1,790 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,493 MW1,738 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,515 MW1,710 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,518 MW1,707 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,516 MW1,715 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,530 MW1,757 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,517 MW1,866 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,780 MW1,987 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,854 MW2,058 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,956 MW2,076 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,862 MW2,072 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,774 MW2,043 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,738 MW2,031 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,712 MW2,016 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,675 MW2,007 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se2_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North-Central (SE2) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se2/}
}

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