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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Slovenia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 918 MW (100.3%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Ljubljana).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Slovenia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 918 MW (100.3%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Slovenia came 30 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 59 MW, against average demand of 1,543 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.9%
Bias+0.2%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss918 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-3 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 918 MW (100.3%) too high at 13 Oct 2026, 09:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,834 MW, reported 915 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Slovenia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Slovenia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 15:0030 Oct, 15:0031 Oct, 15:001 Nov, 15:002 Nov, 15:003 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Slovenia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:001,652 MW1,667 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,627 MW1,661 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,619 MW1,744 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,691 MW1,811 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,705 MW1,785 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,672 MW1,691 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,570 MW1,592 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,504 MW1,489 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,405 MW1,411 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,363 MW1,308 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,318 MW1,311 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,294 MW1,309 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,359 MW1,311 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,369 MW1,378 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,416 MW1,542 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,610 MW1,726 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,731 MW1,832 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,814 MW1,848 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,824 MW1,808 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,836 MW1,834 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,903 MW1,814 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,880 MW1,801 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,765 MW1,785 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,688 MW1,737 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,594 MW1,649 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,576 MW1,677 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,595 MW1,779 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,674 MW1,792 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,686 MW1,759 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,601 MW1,664 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,494 MW1,572 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,420 MW1,478 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,359 MW1,390 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,253 MW1,272 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,210 MW1,213 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,172 MW1,174 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,196 MW1,184 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,194 MW1,206 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,188 MW1,297 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,237 MW1,388 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,297 MW1,509 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,363 MW1,591 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,447 MW1,612 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,474 MW1,611 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,480 MW1,553 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,470 MW1,553 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,393 MW1,501 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,367 MW1,442 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,311 MW1,406 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,301 MW1,426 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,350 MW1,533 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,435 MW1,545 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,426 MW1,550 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,408 MW1,507 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,322 MW1,437 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,272 MW1,353 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,190 MW1,256 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,110 MW1,245 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,080 MW1,186 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,080 MW1,140 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,085 MW1,133 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,093 MW1,142 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,104 MW1,186 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,153 MW1,272 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,259 MW1,375 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,351 MW1,456 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,421 MW1,525 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,536 MW1,597 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,502 MW1,646 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,493 MW1,605 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,436 MW1,544 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,342 MW1,502 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,338 MW1,496 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,340 MW1,512 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,422 MW1,571 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,436 MW1,595 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,473 MW1,592 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,464 MW1,539 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,377 MW1,471 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,342 MW1,379 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,240 MW1,297 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,179 MW1,193 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,153 MW1,176 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,173 MW1,174 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,194 MW1,178 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,205 MW1,260 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,331 MW1,418 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,652 MW1,638 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,773 MW1,807 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,888 MW1,917 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,924 MW1,965 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,923 MW1,981 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,909 MW1,944 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,936 MW1,925 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,867 MW1,889 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,772 MW1,822 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,719 MW1,772 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,783 MW1,753 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,792 MW1,821 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,822 MW1,833 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,814 MW1,837 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,782 MW1,777 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,649 MW1,648 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,559 MW1,554 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,477 MW1,459 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,422 MW1,275 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,326 MW1,320 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,311 MW1,320 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,331 MW1,333 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,330 MW1,359 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,480 MW1,487 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,737 MW1,704 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,827 MW1,853 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,877 MW1,939 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,866 MW1,934 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,941 MW1,896 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,973 MW1,908 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,973 MW1,908 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,953 MW1,875 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,878 MW1,817 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,832 MW1,790 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,839 MW1,790 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,850 MW1,846 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,861 MW1,877 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,873 MW1,878 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,827 MW1,814 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,695 MW1,672 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,611 MW1,580 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,511 MW1,505 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,472 MW1,367 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,415 MW1,368 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,424 MW1,349 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,422 MW1,359 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,392 MW1,377 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,521 MW1,526 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,883 MW1,746 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,150 MW1,855 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,162 MW1,927 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,002 MW1,962 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,006 MW1,951 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,004 MW1,941 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,069 MW1,926 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,950 MW1,905 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,912 MW1,856 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,954 MW1,807 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,915 MW1,820 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,057 MW1,852 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,878 MW1,871 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,885 MW1,882 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,864 MW1,800 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,733 MW1,666 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,635 MW1,563 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,512 MW1,495 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,446 MW1,371 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,410 MW1,355 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,373 MW1,349 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,405 MW1,344 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,411 MW1,378 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,499 MW1,512 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,982 MW1,710 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,225 MW1,842 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,231 MW1,910 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,031 MW1,910 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,009 MW1,920 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,076 MW1,902 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,038 MW1,865 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,991 MW1,847 MW
5 Nov, 14:00902 MW1,805 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_si_2026,
  title = {{Slovenia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/si/}
}

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