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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 8.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vilnius).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 8.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Lithuania came 39 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 130 MW, against average demand of 1,489 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 18% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error8.5%
Bias-7.2%
Hours within 5%35%
Worst miss589 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-113 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 589 MW (30.1%) too low at 20 Oct 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,368 MW, reported 1,958 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00)
Lithuania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 16:0030 Oct, 16:0031 Oct, 16:001 Nov, 16:002 Nov, 16:003 Nov, 16:004 Nov, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 15:00 EET (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 16:001,720 MW1,637 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,791 MW1,694 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,805 MW1,728 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,770 MW1,688 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,696 MW1,597 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,611 MW1,523 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,457 MW1,368 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,332 MW1,245 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,270 MW1,252 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,224 MW1,217 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,176 MW1,193 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,187 MW1,186 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,204 MW1,197 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,291 MW1,269 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,519 MW1,472 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,660 MW1,636 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,744 MW1,734 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,762 MW1,752 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,743 MW1,730 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,693 MW1,717 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,686 MW1,698 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,686 MW1,698 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,675 MW1,695 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,689 MW1,694 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,729 MW1,715 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,792 MW1,753 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,787 MW1,736 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,728 MW1,686 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,653 MW1,614 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,547 MW1,523 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,434 MW1,421 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,334 MW1,321 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,280 MW1,249 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,208 MW1,209 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,165 MW1,184 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,145 MW1,175 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,147 MW1,171 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,173 MW1,201 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,246 MW1,272 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,320 MW1,345 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,398 MW1,422 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,469 MW1,493 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,472 MW1,536 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,407 MW1,542 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,446 MW1,538 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,463 MW1,538 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,438 MW1,543 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,484 MW1,561 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,533 MW1,606 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,613 MW1,657 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,605 MW1,638 MW
31 Oct, 19:001,561 MW1,595 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,503 MW1,540 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,423 MW1,466 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,334 MW1,377 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,262 MW1,290 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,199 MW1,227 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,155 MW1,206 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,131 MW1,184 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,110 MW1,169 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,116 MW1,158 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,122 MW1,180 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,184 MW1,232 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,243 MW1,266 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,317 MW1,325 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,390 MW1,381 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,426 MW1,405 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,408 MW1,417 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,396 MW1,414 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,408 MW1,414 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,420 MW1,425 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,438 MW1,460 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,495 MW1,511 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,561 MW1,578 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,555 MW1,588 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,530 MW1,563 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,494 MW1,510 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,429 MW1,424 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,349 MW1,320 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,263 MW1,239 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,214 MW1,182 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,155 MW1,154 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,129 MW1,115 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,120 MW1,101 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,121 MW1,099 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,148 MW1,155 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,223 MW1,257 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,263 MW1,335 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,322 MW1,412 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,393 MW1,476 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,421 MW1,458 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,457 MW1,459 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,418 MW1,467 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,460 MW1,472 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,504 MW1,481 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,467 MW1,515 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,552 MW1,570 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,663 MW1,642 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,653 MW1,642 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,619 MW1,609 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,571 MW1,549 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,475 MW1,461 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,359 MW1,355 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,258 MW1,269 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,209 MW1,228 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,153 MW1,204 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,136 MW1,183 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,137 MW1,180 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,147 MW1,200 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,235 MW1,287 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,461 MW1,503 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,642 MW1,671 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,783 MW1,777 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,895 MW1,791 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,856 MW1,768 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,886 MW1,773 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,794 MW1,766 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,771 MW1,789 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,767 MW1,789 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,764 MW1,800 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,765 MW1,818 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,846 MW1,847 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,847 MW1,826 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,802 MW1,782 MW
3 Nov, 20:001,780 MW1,715 MW
3 Nov, 21:001,631 MW1,613 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,488 MW1,482 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,372 MW1,365 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,304 MW1,284 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,260 MW1,244 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,222 MW1,217 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,210 MW1,210 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,221 MW1,230 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,305 MW1,314 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,505 MW1,527 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,690 MW1,701 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,824 MW1,793 MW
4 Nov, 09:001,901 MW1,804 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,842 MW1,745 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,688 MW1,715 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,675 MW1,694 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,758 MW1,712 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,877 MW1,725 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,835 MW1,755 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,764 MW1,798 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,865 MW1,852 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,866 MW1,841 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,820 MW1,796 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,746 MW1,728 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,634 MW1,621 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,482 MW1,484 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,351 MW1,368 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,290 MW1,290 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,253 MW1,252 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,249 MW1,224 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,230 MW1,220 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,247 MW1,233 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,304 MW1,302 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,490 MW1,506 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,657 MW1,671 MW
5 Nov, 08:00n/a1,769 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,783 MW1,778 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,820 MW1,745 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,716 MW1,720 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,648 MW1,699 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,675 MW1,717 MW
5 Nov, 14:001,651 MW1,725 MW
5 Nov, 15:001,749 MW1,747 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lt_2026,
  title = {{Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lt/}
}

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