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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Lithuania Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 14.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 9% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -13.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 661 MW (38.5%) too low at 9 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Vilnius).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Lithuania was off by 14.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 9% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -13.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 661 MW (38.5%) too low at 9 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Lithuania came 45 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 198 MW, against average demand of 1,355 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 1% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error14.1%
Bias-13.9%
Hours within 5%9%
Worst miss661 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-197 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 661 MW (38.5%) too low at 9 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00): forecast 1,058 MW, reported 1,719 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00)
Lithuania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 13 Sept, 16:0014 Sept, 16:0015 Sept, 16:0016 Sept, 16:0017 Sept, 16:0018 Sept, 16:0019 Sept, 16:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Lithuania over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 15:00 EEST (UTC+03:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Lithuania day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 16:001,351 MW1,154 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,312 MW1,175 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,366 MW1,267 MW
13 Sept, 19:001,449 MW1,338 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,506 MW1,403 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,417 MW1,315 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,284 MW1,191 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,163 MW1,080 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,096 MW1,005 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,029 MW971 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,014 MW946 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,006 MW971 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,030 MW1,026 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,115 MW1,112 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,337 MW1,236 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,499 MW1,398 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,610 MW1,482 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,648 MW1,465 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,622 MW1,383 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,679 MW1,324 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,564 MW1,293 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,476 MW1,361 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,466 MW1,395 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,336 MW1,322 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,504 MW1,311 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,577 MW1,354 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,568 MW1,412 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,587 MW1,446 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,653 MW1,532 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,543 MW1,438 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,375 MW1,284 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,244 MW1,174 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,159 MW1,099 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,111 MW1,054 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,096 MW1,119 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,092 MW1,113 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,099 MW1,122 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,177 MW1,146 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,392 MW1,313 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,512 MW1,445 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,661 MW1,536 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,742 MW1,514 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,770 MW1,436 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,774 MW1,328 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,518 MW1,328 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,686 MW1,295 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,468 MW1,301 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,474 MW1,260 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,585 MW1,295 MW
15 Sept, 17:001,560 MW1,361 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,593 MW1,449 MW
15 Sept, 19:00n/a1,554 MW
15 Sept, 20:00n/a1,592 MW
15 Sept, 21:00n/a1,499 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,397 MW1,332 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,247 MW1,201 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,166 MW1,106 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,110 MW1,041 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,095 MW1,039 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,093 MW1,082 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,092 MW1,089 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,180 MW1,157 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,394 MW1,285 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,489 MW1,402 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,637 MW1,459 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,629 MW1,408 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,650 MW1,312 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,548 MW1,238 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,541 MW1,161 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,475 MW1,127 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,400 MW1,138 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,442 MW1,208 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,505 MW1,236 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,587 MW1,328 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,621 MW1,380 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,611 MW1,463 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,671 MW1,521 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,551 MW1,426 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,383 MW1,267 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,243 MW1,150 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,186 MW1,071 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,141 MW1,044 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,101 MW1,126 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,096 MW1,112 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,113 MW1,129 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,195 MW1,112 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,402 MW1,298 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,544 MW1,438 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,597 MW1,518 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,657 MW1,525 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,674 MW1,437 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,602 MW1,329 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,564 MW1,250 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,521 MW1,287 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,530 MW1,271 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,472 MW1,280 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,517 MW1,214 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,475 MW1,254 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,540 MW1,363 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,605 MW1,460 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,642 MW1,490 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,551 MW1,412 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,385 MW1,260 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,251 MW1,131 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,181 MW1,052 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,149 MW1,022 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,118 MW1,090 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,105 MW1,076 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,105 MW1,093 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,172 MW1,080 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,381 MW1,260 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,502 MW1,384 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,602 MW1,426 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,824 MW1,387 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,633 MW1,299 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,554 MW1,209 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,445 MW1,156 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,510 MW1,206 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,517 MW1,180 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,441 MW1,168 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,517 MW1,225 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,551 MW1,320 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,515 MW1,387 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,572 MW1,457 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,601 MW1,480 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,508 MW1,403 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,374 MW1,266 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,260 MW1,135 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,184 MW1,055 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,120 MW1,021 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,093 MW997 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,081 MW981 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,081 MW983 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,092 MW999 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,165 MW1,042 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,199 MW1,088 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,349 MW1,101 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,471 MW1,089 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,494 MW1,018 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,362 MW989 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,260 MW1,039 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,328 MW1,265 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,274 MW1,240 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,295 MW1,128 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,328 MW1,023 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,444 MW1,064 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,413 MW1,206 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,424 MW1,272 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,467 MW1,321 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,388 MW1,263 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,286 MW1,151 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,188 MW1,064 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,120 MW991 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,065 MW947 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,037 MW928 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,023 MW968 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,015 MW962 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,031 MW977 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,085 MW1,003 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,104 MW1,040 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,226 MW1,033 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,320 MW1,079 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,337 MW1,111 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,298 MW1,160 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,406 MW1,167 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,428 MW1,205 MW
20 Sept, 14:001,358 MW1,123 MW
20 Sept, 15:001,385 MW1,100 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 688 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.