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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 266 MW (12.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Zagreb).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 266 MW (12.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Croatia came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 65 MW, against average demand of 1,977 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 69% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.3%
Bias+1.5%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss266 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+30 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 266 MW (12.4%) too low at 23 Oct 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,871 MW, reported 2,136 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Croatia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 29 Oct, 15:0030 Oct, 15:0031 Oct, 15:001 Nov, 15:002 Nov, 15:003 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:002,266 MW2,376 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,376 MW2,468 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,548 MW2,596 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,575 MW2,677 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,591 MW2,672 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,510 MW2,579 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,399 MW2,490 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,182 MW2,299 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,932 MW2,044 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,737 MW1,723 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,637 MW1,611 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,570 MW1,539 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,559 MW1,549 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,593 MW1,576 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,758 MW1,723 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,115 MW2,130 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,316 MW2,338 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,356 MW2,389 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,292 MW2,390 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,204 MW2,265 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,222 MW2,239 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,215 MW2,148 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,189 MW2,042 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,191 MW2,371 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,224 MW2,287 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,366 MW2,379 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,589 MW2,593 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,594 MW2,536 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,566 MW2,551 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,474 MW2,502 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,354 MW2,398 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,151 MW2,236 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,933 MW1,953 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,751 MW1,768 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,628 MW1,667 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,557 MW1,606 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,544 MW1,587 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,573 MW1,607 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,653 MW1,697 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,814 MW1,847 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,957 MW1,975 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,054 MW2,080 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,024 MW2,054 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,953 MW2,079 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,953 MW2,068 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,007 MW2,093 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,022 MW2,087 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,023 MW2,107 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,030 MW2,135 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,134 MW2,268 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,352 MW2,453 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,394 MW2,461 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,375 MW2,448 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,308 MW2,396 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,206 MW2,293 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,046 MW2,142 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,848 MW1,937 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,668 MW1,657 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,558 MW1,536 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,494 MW1,459 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,463 MW1,446 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,469 MW1,441 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,523 MW1,547 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,611 MW1,682 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,712 MW1,769 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,862 MW1,786 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,960 MW1,910 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,027 MW2,080 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,097 MW2,114 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,085 MW2,105 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,034 MW2,090 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,990 MW2,084 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,968 MW2,072 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,071 MW2,132 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,242 MW2,318 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,287 MW2,321 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,294 MW2,316 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,254 MW2,289 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,201 MW2,186 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,040 MW2,111 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,808 MW1,809 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,635 MW1,623 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,534 MW1,545 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,499 MW1,473 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,482 MW1,395 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,521 MW1,478 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,700 MW1,709 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,091 MW2,148 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,370 MW2,382 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,503 MW2,524 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,529 MW2,446 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,485 MW2,556 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,477 MW2,589 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,480 MW2,594 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,435 MW2,567 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,395 MW2,522 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,387 MW2,471 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,510 MW2,505 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,652 MW2,716 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,650 MW2,656 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,638 MW2,632 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,563 MW2,607 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,441 MW2,487 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,218 MW2,301 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,980 MW1,990 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,785 MW1,687 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,658 MW1,512 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,602 MW1,501 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,581 MW1,556 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,625 MW1,560 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,787 MW1,709 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,165 MW2,146 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,412 MW2,356 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,515 MW2,392 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,535 MW2,433 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,489 MW2,466 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,527 MW2,415 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,541 MW2,593 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,484 MW2,546 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,447 MW2,499 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,423 MW2,464 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,555 MW2,486 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,688 MW2,678 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,677 MW2,670 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,691 MW2,584 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,614 MW2,477 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,497 MW2,406 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,267 MW2,260 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,017 MW1,936 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,818 MW1,774 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,685 MW1,640 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,637 MW1,493 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,631 MW1,579 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,657 MW1,583 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,819 MW1,769 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,187 MW2,201 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,395 MW2,477 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,456 MW2,512 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,398 MW2,462 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,302 MW2,299 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,324 MW2,316 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,329 MW2,339 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,309 MW2,297 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,278 MW2,385 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,314 MW2,420 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,471 MW2,504 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,657 MW2,609 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,668 MW2,630 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,661 MW2,643 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,589 MW2,733 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,486 MW2,459 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,262 MW2,241 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,011 MW1,969 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,815 MW1,821 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,702 MW1,689 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,622 MW1,630 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,629 MW1,612 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,653 MW1,649 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,825 MW1,823 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,184 MW2,257 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,403 MW2,452 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,444 MW2,363 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,377 MW2,208 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,267 MW2,160 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,253 MW2,064 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,229 MW2,057 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,231 MW2,090 MW
5 Nov, 14:002,257 MW2,224 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_hr_2026,
  title = {{Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/hr/}
}

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