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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Croatia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 391 MW (16.5%) too low at 17 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Zagreb).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Croatia was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 80% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.9%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 391 MW (16.5%) too low at 17 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Croatia came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 73 MW, against average demand of 2,135 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 68% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.4%
Bias+1.9%
Hours within 5%80%
Worst miss391 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+38 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 391 MW (16.5%) too low at 17 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,970 MW, reported 2,361 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Croatia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Croatia over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Croatia day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:001,466 MW1,387 MW
13 Sept, 15:001,512 MW1,473 MW
13 Sept, 16:001,612 MW1,683 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,790 MW1,875 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,971 MW1,973 MW
13 Sept, 19:002,172 MW2,161 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,222 MW2,226 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,118 MW2,103 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,980 MW1,945 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,765 MW1,762 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,618 MW1,595 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,521 MW1,472 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,460 MW1,421 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,441 MW1,419 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,463 MW1,427 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,601 MW1,617 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,913 MW1,880 MW
14 Sept, 07:002,145 MW2,104 MW
14 Sept, 08:002,260 MW2,286 MW
14 Sept, 09:002,235 MW2,343 MW
14 Sept, 10:002,176 MW2,289 MW
14 Sept, 11:002,107 MW2,276 MW
14 Sept, 12:002,063 MW2,274 MW
14 Sept, 13:002,021 MW2,206 MW
14 Sept, 14:002,061 MW2,139 MW
14 Sept, 15:002,082 MW2,137 MW
14 Sept, 16:002,126 MW2,181 MW
14 Sept, 17:002,201 MW2,237 MW
14 Sept, 18:002,322 MW2,300 MW
14 Sept, 19:002,497 MW2,435 MW
14 Sept, 20:002,503 MW2,458 MW
14 Sept, 21:002,335 MW2,318 MW
14 Sept, 22:002,114 MW2,151 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,885 MW1,880 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,686 MW1,759 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,574 MW1,766 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,514 MW1,684 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,495 MW1,662 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,519 MW1,685 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,649 MW1,892 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,946 MW2,125 MW
15 Sept, 07:002,144 MW2,296 MW
15 Sept, 08:002,142 MW2,328 MW
15 Sept, 09:002,014 MW2,355 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,834 MW2,142 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,772 MW2,142 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,791 MW2,140 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,771 MW2,100 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,788 MW2,122 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,821 MW2,150 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,976 MW2,281 MW
15 Sept, 17:002,167 MW2,471 MW
15 Sept, 18:002,331 MW2,568 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,510 MW2,772 MW
15 Sept, 20:002,540 MW2,775 MW
15 Sept, 21:002,361 MW2,503 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,147 MW2,432 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,896 MW2,187 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,696 MW1,709 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,588 MW1,596 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,538 MW1,519 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,517 MW1,519 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,531 MW1,510 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,655 MW1,659 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,954 MW1,933 MW
16 Sept, 07:002,135 MW2,085 MW
16 Sept, 08:002,122 MW2,066 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,980 MW1,976 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,831 MW1,871 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,779 MW1,831 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,751 MW1,834 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,735 MW1,818 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,771 MW1,707 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,847 MW1,796 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,984 MW1,932 MW
16 Sept, 17:002,158 MW2,115 MW
16 Sept, 18:002,325 MW2,219 MW
16 Sept, 19:002,502 MW2,524 MW
16 Sept, 20:002,522 MW2,491 MW
16 Sept, 21:002,353 MW2,271 MW
16 Sept, 22:002,150 MW2,061 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,913 MW1,924 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,709 MW1,758 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,591 MW1,627 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,532 MW1,565 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,518 MW1,553 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,532 MW1,567 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,653 MW1,675 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,947 MW1,953 MW
17 Sept, 07:002,155 MW2,137 MW
17 Sept, 08:002,275 MW2,162 MW
17 Sept, 09:002,284 MW2,093 MW
17 Sept, 10:002,271 MW2,066 MW
17 Sept, 11:002,361 MW1,970 MW
17 Sept, 12:002,361 MW2,000 MW
17 Sept, 13:002,233 MW1,993 MW
17 Sept, 14:002,223 MW2,014 MW
17 Sept, 15:002,194 MW2,163 MW
17 Sept, 16:002,184 MW2,198 MW
17 Sept, 17:002,267 MW2,356 MW
17 Sept, 18:002,343 MW2,334 MW
17 Sept, 19:002,489 MW2,524 MW
17 Sept, 20:002,473 MW2,389 MW
17 Sept, 21:002,284 MW2,276 MW
17 Sept, 22:002,102 MW2,182 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,873 MW1,928 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,687 MW1,733 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,581 MW1,602 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,531 MW1,552 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,512 MW1,540 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,531 MW1,555 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,651 MW1,702 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,938 MW1,993 MW
18 Sept, 07:002,122 MW2,063 MW
18 Sept, 08:002,138 MW2,277 MW
18 Sept, 09:002,056 MW2,245 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,937 MW2,207 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,860 MW2,166 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,800 MW2,061 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,823 MW2,030 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,883 MW2,059 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,903 MW2,009 MW
18 Sept, 16:002,011 MW2,192 MW
18 Sept, 17:002,167 MW2,273 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,283 MW2,318 MW
18 Sept, 19:002,458 MW2,504 MW
18 Sept, 20:002,431 MW2,499 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,243 MW2,310 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,087 MW2,151 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,893 MW1,941 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,725 MW1,704 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,617 MW1,614 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,549 MW1,571 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,516 MW1,523 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,516 MW1,540 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,568 MW1,609 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,704 MW1,729 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,837 MW1,901 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,950 MW2,086 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,980 MW2,180 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,915 MW2,172 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,850 MW2,089 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,752 MW1,999 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,701 MW1,843 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,702 MW1,847 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,665 MW1,869 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,759 MW1,914 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,896 MW1,998 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,055 MW2,066 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,236 MW2,262 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,223 MW2,249 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,088 MW2,113 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,972 MW2,021 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,782 MW1,840 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,622 MW1,653 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,516 MW1,620 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,453 MW1,444 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,418 MW1,415 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,412 MW1,414 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,440 MW1,444 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,499 MW1,515 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,553 MW1,593 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,595 MW1,655 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,578 MW1,600 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,526 MW1,594 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,542 MW1,591 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,465 MW1,514 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,453 MW1,501 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.