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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 2.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway West (NO5) came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 53 MW, against average demand of 2,008 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 33% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.6%
Bias-1.3%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss180 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-27 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 180 MW (8.5%) too low at 16 Oct 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,932 MW, reported 2,112 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway West (NO5) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:002,052 MW1,962 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,124 MW1,972 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,159 MW1,994 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,164 MW2,005 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,149 MW2,000 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,154 MW1,995 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,149 MW1,984 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,124 MW1,945 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,077 MW1,897 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,002 MW1,832 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,953 MW1,873 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,906 MW1,852 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,877 MW1,824 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,866 MW1,811 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,874 MW1,815 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,900 MW1,855 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,992 MW1,912 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,117 MW1,997 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,147 MW2,048 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,132 MW2,063 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,125 MW2,056 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,122 MW2,040 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,110 MW2,031 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,074 MW2,014 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,087 MW2,009 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,107 MW2,019 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,141 MW2,040 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,168 MW2,038 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,136 MW2,046 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,111 MW2,040 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,117 MW2,033 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,090 MW1,994 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,046 MW1,945 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,007 MW1,902 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,989 MW1,918 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,953 MW1,886 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,932 MW1,861 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,911 MW1,860 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,904 MW1,831 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,904 MW1,845 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,927 MW1,879 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,974 MW1,940 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,020 MW1,984 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,074 MW2,017 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,025 MW2,020 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,123 MW2,019 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,127 MW2,021 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,129 MW2,009 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,128 MW2,011 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,142 MW2,019 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,163 MW2,039 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,168 MW2,036 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,133 MW2,046 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,103 MW2,043 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,076 MW2,027 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,048 MW1,992 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,018 MW1,942 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,971 MW1,889 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,949 MW1,924 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,910 MW1,907 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,898 MW1,872 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,891 MW1,867 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,811 MW1,835 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,867 MW1,835 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,856 MW1,856 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,909 MW1,891 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,953 MW1,927 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,014 MW1,946 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,022 MW1,970 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,049 MW1,971 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,070 MW1,983 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,071 MW1,986 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,095 MW1,991 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,108 MW2,017 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,124 MW2,028 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,141 MW2,061 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,154 MW2,081 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,146 MW2,085 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,148 MW2,085 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,148 MW2,062 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,111 MW2,028 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,059 MW1,981 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,010 MW1,978 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,978 MW1,986 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,966 MW1,949 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,964 MW1,968 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,972 MW1,939 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,018 MW2,001 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,112 MW2,068 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,257 MW2,148 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,321 MW2,199 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,321 MW2,224 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,291 MW2,204 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,261 MW2,180 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,224 MW2,165 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,190 MW2,146 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,196 MW2,149 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,200 MW2,178 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,237 MW2,170 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,264 MW2,202 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,252 MW2,184 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,266 MW2,190 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,277 MW2,163 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,256 MW2,142 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,194 MW2,083 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,134 MW2,032 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,066 MW2,062 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,030 MW2,041 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,005 MW2,007 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,980 MW1,988 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,969 MW1,980 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,022 MW2,036 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,162 MW2,112 MW
3 Nov, 07:00n/a2,204 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,296 MW2,257 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,283 MW2,261 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,247 MW2,235 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,187 MW2,196 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,159 MW2,170 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,106 MW2,148 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,111 MW2,165 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,148 MW2,184 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,198 MW2,192 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,226 MW2,214 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,230 MW2,214 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,236 MW2,217 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,263 MW2,204 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,240 MW2,169 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,187 MW2,115 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,129 MW2,065 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,076 MW2,053 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,038 MW2,021 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,025 MW1,993 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,016 MW1,970 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,005 MW1,973 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,030 MW2,024 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,153 MW2,110 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,283 MW2,203 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,223 MW2,254 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,222 MW2,268 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,115 MW2,241 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,172 MW2,203 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,194 MW2,178 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,169 MW2,151 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,163 MW2,144 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,198 MW2,163 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,250 MW2,179 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,276 MW2,201 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,272 MW2,210 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,277 MW2,211 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,274 MW2,203 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,252 MW2,159 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,192 MW2,120 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,119 MW2,069 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,070 MW2,051 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,037 MW2,021 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,011 MW2,002 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,001 MW1,982 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,997 MW1,993 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,031 MW2,036 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,153 MW2,127 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,291 MW2,212 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,323 MW2,266 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,279 MW2,278 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,230 MW2,242 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,211 MW2,196 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,182 MW2,175 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,152 MW2,164 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no5_2026,
  title = {{Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no5/}
}

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