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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Norway West (NO5) Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 215 MW (13.7%) too high at 3 Sept 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway West (NO5) was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 74% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 215 MW (13.7%) too high at 3 Sept 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway West (NO5) came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 59 MW, against average demand of 1,685 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%74%
Worst miss215 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 215 MW (13.7%) too high at 3 Sept 2026, 10:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,785 MW, reported 1,570 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Norway West (NO5) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway West (NO5) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Norway West (NO5) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:001,719 MW1,691 MW
13 Sept, 15:001,727 MW1,714 MW
13 Sept, 16:001,755 MW1,707 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,773 MW1,718 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,807 MW1,744 MW
13 Sept, 19:001,826 MW1,758 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,851 MW1,751 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,861 MW1,737 MW
13 Sept, 22:001,825 MW1,709 MW
13 Sept, 23:001,768 MW1,662 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,704 MW1,670 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,671 MW1,642 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,657 MW1,627 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,657 MW1,619 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,662 MW1,607 MW
14 Sept, 05:001,692 MW1,654 MW
14 Sept, 06:001,790 MW1,712 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,888 MW1,783 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,928 MW1,829 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,922 MW1,837 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,864 MW1,832 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,921 MW1,803 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,906 MW1,777 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,880 MW1,776 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,878 MW1,783 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,891 MW1,803 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,893 MW1,801 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,879 MW1,815 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,859 MW1,805 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,871 MW1,806 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,901 MW1,784 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,889 MW1,771 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,839 MW1,728 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,778 MW1,682 MW
15 Sept, 00:001,705 MW1,699 MW
15 Sept, 01:001,671 MW1,666 MW
15 Sept, 02:001,639 MW1,639 MW
15 Sept, 03:001,623 MW1,621 MW
15 Sept, 04:001,612 MW1,618 MW
15 Sept, 05:001,622 MW1,653 MW
15 Sept, 06:001,695 MW1,724 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,792 MW1,801 MW
15 Sept, 08:001,800 MW1,851 MW
15 Sept, 09:001,814 MW1,861 MW
15 Sept, 10:001,797 MW1,861 MW
15 Sept, 11:001,788 MW1,837 MW
15 Sept, 12:001,780 MW1,823 MW
15 Sept, 13:001,785 MW1,811 MW
15 Sept, 14:001,772 MW1,818 MW
15 Sept, 15:001,791 MW1,842 MW
15 Sept, 16:001,812 MW1,838 MW
15 Sept, 17:001,821 MW1,846 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,807 MW1,847 MW
15 Sept, 19:001,819 MW1,852 MW
15 Sept, 20:001,832 MW1,847 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,819 MW1,824 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,773 MW1,775 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,713 MW1,739 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,665 MW1,690 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,621 MW1,663 MW
16 Sept, 02:001,610 MW1,642 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,588 MW1,638 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,559 MW1,612 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,540 MW1,659 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,598 MW1,715 MW
16 Sept, 07:001,697 MW1,776 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,740 MW1,828 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,737 MW1,845 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,721 MW1,852 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,704 MW1,834 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,715 MW1,828 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,731 MW1,828 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,769 MW1,827 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,795 MW1,840 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,842 MW1,832 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,832 MW1,838 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,807 MW1,841 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,811 MW1,850 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,777 MW1,840 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,749 MW1,824 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,702 MW1,788 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,636 MW1,746 MW
17 Sept, 00:001,587 MW1,658 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,540 MW1,628 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,522 MW1,616 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,511 MW1,609 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,506 MW1,599 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,529 MW1,626 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,641 MW1,688 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,745 MW1,766 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,783 MW1,822 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,771 MW1,837 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,749 MW1,821 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,752 MW1,814 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,766 MW1,799 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,738 MW1,796 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,726 MW1,798 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,762 MW1,799 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,789 MW1,812 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,772 MW1,813 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,801 MW1,811 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,844 MW1,815 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,875 MW1,810 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,854 MW1,784 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,809 MW1,745 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,760 MW1,698 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,696 MW1,628 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,657 MW1,596 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,630 MW1,586 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,607 MW1,570 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,600 MW1,579 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,637 MW1,607 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,695 MW1,665 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,789 MW1,736 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,837 MW1,774 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,837 MW1,797 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,825 MW1,784 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,819 MW1,771 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,823 MW1,759 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,816 MW1,770 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,838 MW1,760 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,848 MW1,775 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,853 MW1,778 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,831 MW1,779 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,846 MW1,787 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,867 MW1,775 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,860 MW1,754 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,818 MW1,725 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,767 MW1,681 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,730 MW1,652 MW
19 Sept, 00:001,658 MW1,664 MW
19 Sept, 01:001,624 MW1,644 MW
19 Sept, 02:001,596 MW1,615 MW
19 Sept, 03:001,589 MW1,601 MW
19 Sept, 04:001,575 MW1,585 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,568 MW1,583 MW
19 Sept, 06:001,582 MW1,615 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,612 MW1,655 MW
19 Sept, 08:00n/a1,681 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,696 MW1,704 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,727 MW1,715 MW
19 Sept, 11:001,739 MW1,714 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,736 MW1,721 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,723 MW1,720 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,732 MW1,718 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,747 MW1,730 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,739 MW1,737 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,736 MW1,744 MW
19 Sept, 18:001,754 MW1,760 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,745 MW1,768 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,738 MW1,763 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,714 MW1,742 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,678 MW1,696 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,658 MW1,667 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,631 MW1,651 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,603 MW1,614 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,594 MW1,602 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,569 MW1,590 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,565 MW1,574 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,556 MW1,573 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,573 MW1,607 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,585 MW1,615 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,625 MW1,649 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,665 MW1,664 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,719 MW1,700 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,722 MW1,708 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,717 MW1,705 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,710 MW1,719 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.