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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 650 MW (17.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 4.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.8%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 650 MW (17.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-North came 26 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 113 MW, against average demand of 2,824 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error4.0%
Bias+0.8%
Hours within 5%72%
Worst miss650 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+14 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 650 MW (17.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 3,176 MW, reported 3,826 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Italy Centre-North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Italy Centre-North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:001,588 MW1,805 MW
13 Sept, 15:001,651 MW1,869 MW
13 Sept, 16:001,806 MW2,025 MW
13 Sept, 17:002,099 MW2,263 MW
13 Sept, 18:002,455 MW2,493 MW
13 Sept, 19:002,704 MW2,685 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,725 MW2,715 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,541 MW2,570 MW
13 Sept, 22:002,379 MW2,448 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,167 MW2,230 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,027 MW2,060 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,984 MW1,970 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,930 MW1,930 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,925 MW1,902 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,941 MW1,913 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,100 MW2,058 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,497 MW2,443 MW
14 Sept, 07:002,836 MW2,900 MW
14 Sept, 08:003,324 MW3,322 MW
14 Sept, 09:003,459 MW3,333 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,354 MW3,266 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,303 MW3,215 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,016 MW3,068 MW
14 Sept, 13:002,987 MW3,050 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,243 MW3,210 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,384 MW3,318 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,383 MW3,390 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,351 MW3,395 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,351 MW3,423 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,458 MW3,490 MW
14 Sept, 20:003,382 MW3,375 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,119 MW3,120 MW
14 Sept, 22:002,791 MW2,805 MW
14 Sept, 23:002,577 MW2,593 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,298 MW2,449 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,126 MW2,331 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,092 MW2,271 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,037 MW2,287 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,124 MW2,254 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,218 MW2,345 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,635 MW2,717 MW
15 Sept, 07:003,009 MW3,060 MW
15 Sept, 08:003,362 MW3,392 MW
15 Sept, 09:003,410 MW3,337 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,315 MW3,258 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,134 MW3,227 MW
15 Sept, 12:002,978 MW3,078 MW
15 Sept, 13:002,887 MW3,037 MW
15 Sept, 14:002,987 MW3,174 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,095 MW3,296 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,239 MW3,333 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,301 MW3,302 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,381 MW3,336 MW
15 Sept, 19:003,482 MW3,494 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,397 MW3,356 MW
15 Sept, 21:003,144 MW3,096 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,802 MW2,799 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,524 MW2,563 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,313 MW2,365 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,203 MW2,244 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,166 MW2,201 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,137 MW2,230 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,152 MW2,185 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,264 MW2,293 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,665 MW2,665 MW
16 Sept, 07:003,002 MW3,019 MW
16 Sept, 08:003,350 MW3,291 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,395 MW3,251 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,274 MW3,222 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,219 MW3,214 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,003 MW3,003 MW
16 Sept, 13:002,966 MW2,965 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,111 MW3,109 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,216 MW3,259 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,300 MW3,306 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,330 MW3,265 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,399 MW3,258 MW
16 Sept, 19:003,571 MW3,447 MW
16 Sept, 20:003,424 MW3,326 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,178 MW3,081 MW
16 Sept, 22:002,861 MW2,789 MW
16 Sept, 23:002,602 MW2,523 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,398 MW2,333 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,285 MW2,229 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,248 MW2,160 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,268 MW2,149 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,247 MW2,151 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,357 MW2,274 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,666 MW2,611 MW
17 Sept, 07:003,038 MW2,937 MW
17 Sept, 08:003,449 MW3,401 MW
17 Sept, 09:003,534 MW3,456 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,498 MW3,386 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,611 MW3,377 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,493 MW3,254 MW
17 Sept, 13:003,384 MW3,247 MW
17 Sept, 14:003,509 MW3,384 MW
17 Sept, 15:003,487 MW3,467 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,507 MW3,454 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,425 MW3,364 MW
17 Sept, 18:003,353 MW3,322 MW
17 Sept, 19:003,424 MW3,418 MW
17 Sept, 20:003,286 MW3,308 MW
17 Sept, 21:003,049 MW3,062 MW
17 Sept, 22:002,732 MW2,742 MW
17 Sept, 23:002,502 MW2,532 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,331 MW2,320 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,242 MW2,213 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,174 MW2,163 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,180 MW2,145 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,159 MW2,150 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,283 MW2,258 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,650 MW2,647 MW
18 Sept, 07:002,984 MW2,997 MW
18 Sept, 08:003,333 MW3,400 MW
18 Sept, 09:003,403 MW3,485 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,374 MW3,391 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,269 MW3,328 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,076 MW3,110 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,060 MW3,050 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,145 MW3,175 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,334 MW3,271 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,377 MW3,300 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,168 MW3,297 MW
18 Sept, 18:003,227 MW3,285 MW
18 Sept, 19:003,349 MW3,385 MW
18 Sept, 20:003,232 MW3,273 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,981 MW3,028 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,701 MW2,727 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,476 MW2,472 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,279 MW2,340 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,172 MW2,226 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,095 MW2,165 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,051 MW2,133 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,028 MW2,102 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,051 MW2,117 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,206 MW2,220 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,358 MW2,371 MW
19 Sept, 08:002,534 MW2,528 MW
19 Sept, 09:002,530 MW2,555 MW
19 Sept, 10:002,439 MW2,455 MW
19 Sept, 11:002,284 MW2,395 MW
19 Sept, 12:002,138 MW2,288 MW
19 Sept, 13:002,039 MW2,170 MW
19 Sept, 14:002,016 MW2,190 MW
19 Sept, 15:002,010 MW2,197 MW
19 Sept, 16:002,203 MW2,318 MW
19 Sept, 17:002,483 MW2,466 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,673 MW2,658 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,915 MW2,930 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,854 MW2,827 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,677 MW2,624 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,464 MW2,433 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,267 MW2,248 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,094 MW2,075 MW
20 Sept, 01:001,993 MW1,966 MW
20 Sept, 02:001,934 MW1,898 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,890 MW1,888 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,866 MW1,842 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,895 MW1,848 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,949 MW1,868 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,982 MW1,897 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,009 MW1,983 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,935 MW2,028 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,893 MW1,965 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,948 MW1,947 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,867 MW1,925 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,782 MW1,877 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.