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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Centre-North was off by 3.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 81% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Centre-North came 21 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 79 MW, against average demand of 2,612 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 38% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.0%
Bias-1.1%
Hours within 5%81%
Worst miss388 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-30 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 388 MW (17.2%) too high at 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,648 MW, reported 2,260 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Centre-North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Centre-North over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:003,055 MW3,124 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,302 MW3,255 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,305 MW3,340 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,391 MW3,412 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,367 MW3,377 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,369 MW3,310 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,167 MW3,108 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,936 MW2,840 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,683 MW2,485 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,353 MW2,255 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,128 MW2,110 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,013 MW2,031 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,989 MW2,007 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,993 MW2,002 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,020 MW2,006 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,128 MW2,117 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,506 MW2,475 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,876 MW2,864 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,248 MW3,216 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,310 MW3,240 MW
30 Oct, 10:003,253 MW3,225 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,203 MW3,203 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,046 MW2,945 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,936 MW2,945 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,040 MW3,001 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,185 MW2,994 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,216 MW2,994 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,289 MW3,089 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,331 MW3,140 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,301 MW3,074 MW
30 Oct, 20:003,101 MW2,857 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,843 MW2,588 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,566 MW2,264 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,291 MW2,225 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,074 MW2,060 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,977 MW1,962 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,930 MW1,920 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,916 MW1,890 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,887 MW1,879 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,889 MW1,917 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,032 MW2,087 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,193 MW2,250 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,404 MW2,440 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,408 MW2,413 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,330 MW2,315 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,286 MW2,233 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,280 MW2,147 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,210 MW2,090 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,202 MW2,140 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,255 MW2,300 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,375 MW2,363 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,630 MW2,595 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,731 MW2,810 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,757 MW2,823 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,600 MW2,658 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,412 MW2,432 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,214 MW2,226 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,018 MW2,042 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,884 MW1,857 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,782 MW1,757 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,725 MW1,694 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,689 MW1,675 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,681 MW1,667 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,709 MW1,670 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,769 MW1,725 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,852 MW1,775 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,027 MW1,882 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,247 MW1,970 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,330 MW2,055 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,331 MW2,075 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,321 MW2,115 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,241 MW1,972 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,203 MW1,970 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,197 MW2,073 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,264 MW2,142 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,494 MW2,325 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,624 MW2,517 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,707 MW2,582 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,620 MW2,493 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,449 MW2,365 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,246 MW2,162 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,046 MW1,960 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,902 MW1,820 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,792 MW1,731 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,749 MW1,705 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,766 MW1,713 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,816 MW1,750 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,013 MW1,907 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,482 MW2,375 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,954 MW2,830 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,447 MW3,345 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,534 MW3,488 MW
2 Nov, 10:003,549 MW3,432 MW
2 Nov, 11:003,556 MW3,425 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,436 MW3,298 MW
2 Nov, 13:003,410 MW3,220 MW
2 Nov, 14:003,511 MW3,327 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,503 MW3,455 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,531 MW3,443 MW
2 Nov, 17:003,588 MW3,445 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,564 MW3,423 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,554 MW3,367 MW
2 Nov, 20:003,316 MW3,196 MW
2 Nov, 21:003,037 MW2,927 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,694 MW2,623 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,426 MW2,349 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,215 MW2,158 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,152 MW2,042 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,125 MW1,994 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,109 MW1,986 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,168 MW2,007 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,261 MW2,110 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,685 MW2,493 MW
3 Nov, 07:003,146 MW2,967 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,522 MW3,388 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,605 MW3,445 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,601 MW3,396 MW
3 Nov, 11:003,597 MW3,363 MW
3 Nov, 12:003,448 MW3,201 MW
3 Nov, 13:003,406 MW3,169 MW
3 Nov, 14:003,464 MW3,333 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,473 MW3,395 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,508 MW3,450 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,618 MW3,505 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,622 MW3,435 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,571 MW3,352 MW
3 Nov, 20:003,289 MW3,171 MW
3 Nov, 21:003,062 MW2,926 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,721 MW2,591 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,412 MW2,315 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,191 MW2,198 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,096 MW2,075 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,066 MW2,043 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,073 MW2,045 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,088 MW2,072 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,220 MW2,172 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,681 MW2,558 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,146 MW3,038 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,640 MW3,497 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,688 MW3,605 MW
4 Nov, 10:003,548 MW3,577 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,575 MW3,550 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,350 MW3,335 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,342 MW3,337 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,507 MW3,428 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,562 MW3,423 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,541 MW3,458 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,594 MW3,517 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,539 MW3,507 MW
4 Nov, 19:003,515 MW3,428 MW
4 Nov, 20:003,286 MW3,210 MW
4 Nov, 21:003,044 MW2,976 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,727 MW2,632 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,441 MW2,348 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,192 MW2,209 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,082 MW2,121 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,063 MW2,124 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,067 MW2,118 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,103 MW2,168 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,229 MW2,270 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,716 MW2,681 MW
5 Nov, 07:003,171 MW3,157 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,621 MW3,540 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,743 MW3,600 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,672 MW3,575 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,671 MW3,562 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,553 MW3,366 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,502 MW3,354 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_cnor_2026,
  title = {{Italy Centre-North Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-cnor/}
}

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