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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 7.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +7.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden South (SE4) was off by 7.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 35% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +7.2%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden South (SE4) came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 171 MW, against average demand of 2,327 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 91% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error7.7%
Bias+7.2%
Hours within 5%35%
Worst miss583 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+160 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 583 MW (32.0%) too high at 20 Oct 2026, 05:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,405 MW, reported 1,822 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden South (SE4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden South (SE4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:002,305 MW2,710 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,347 MW2,713 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,447 MW2,749 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,486 MW2,852 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,401 MW2,854 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,383 MW2,760 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,412 MW2,648 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,424 MW2,507 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,312 MW2,380 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,205 MW2,258 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,028 MW2,201 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,012 MW2,161 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,938 MW2,124 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,921 MW2,118 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,763 MW2,152 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,901 MW2,302 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,136 MW2,583 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,313 MW2,770 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,439 MW2,783 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,472 MW2,751 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,541 MW2,724 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,530 MW2,663 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,474 MW2,629 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,380 MW2,582 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,290 MW2,571 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,356 MW2,588 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,488 MW2,655 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,406 MW2,722 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,349 MW2,678 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,256 MW2,571 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,172 MW2,477 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,089 MW2,359 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,118 MW2,241 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,149 MW2,181 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,127 MW2,158 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,053 MW2,142 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,031 MW2,120 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,971 MW2,118 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,004 MW2,156 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,979 MW2,193 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,024 MW2,239 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,934 MW2,289 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,050 MW2,347 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,019 MW2,397 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,047 MW2,396 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,092 MW2,355 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,101 MW2,302 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,092 MW2,280 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,109 MW2,267 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,193 MW2,312 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,275 MW2,477 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,364 MW2,611 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,285 MW2,571 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,253 MW2,475 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,165 MW2,409 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,135 MW2,330 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,113 MW2,274 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,027 MW2,274 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,958 MW2,167 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,969 MW2,140 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,967 MW2,115 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,967 MW2,096 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,993 MW2,121 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,960 MW2,163 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,993 MW2,200 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,929 MW2,234 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,936 MW2,333 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,035 MW2,381 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,114 MW2,413 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,154 MW2,428 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,230 MW2,429 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,314 MW2,424 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,350 MW2,443 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,420 MW2,465 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,487 MW2,612 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,591 MW2,686 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,596 MW2,673 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,461 MW2,590 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,334 MW2,506 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,202 MW2,374 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,121 MW2,273 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,190 MW2,216 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,092 MW2,174 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,029 MW2,138 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,015 MW2,114 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,024 MW2,132 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,051 MW2,150 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,160 MW2,279 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,352 MW2,561 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,628 MW2,790 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,707 MW2,836 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,729 MW2,864 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,761 MW2,873 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,848 MW2,868 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,829 MW2,877 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,856 MW2,877 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,912 MW2,874 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,936 MW2,912 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,998 MW2,977 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,983 MW3,010 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,910 MW2,957 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,726 MW2,857 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,628 MW2,746 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,473 MW2,621 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,452 MW2,480 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,369 MW2,379 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,133 MW2,269 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,202 MW2,255 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,174 MW2,247 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,079 MW2,278 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,135 MW2,338 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,363 MW2,491 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,898 MW2,811 MW
3 Nov, 07:003,249 MW3,065 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,032 MW3,086 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,885 MW3,070 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,868 MW3,008 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,674 MW2,945 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,535 MW2,871 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,570 MW2,839 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,654 MW2,839 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,769 MW2,879 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,840 MW2,983 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,835 MW3,113 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,776 MW3,068 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,685 MW3,023 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,550 MW2,898 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,526 MW2,776 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,512 MW2,672 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,495 MW2,586 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,459 MW2,509 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,463 MW2,446 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,494 MW2,427 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,457 MW2,434 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,410 MW2,500 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,481 MW2,624 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,781 MW2,927 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,055 MW3,136 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,063 MW3,157 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,870 MW3,080 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,718 MW3,006 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,647 MW2,927 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,570 MW2,847 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,538 MW2,793 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,542 MW2,781 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,660 MW2,808 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,820 MW2,920 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,876 MW3,066 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,691 MW3,051 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,675 MW2,977 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,635 MW2,889 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,560 MW2,789 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,277 MW2,637 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,231 MW2,548 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,308 MW2,467 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,322 MW2,428 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,204 MW2,409 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,274 MW2,385 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,221 MW2,436 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,378 MW2,551 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,631 MW2,840 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,914 MW3,048 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,039 MW3,070 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,988 MW3,040 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,918 MW3,000 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,790 MW2,984 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,691 MW2,958 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,756 MW2,899 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se4_2026,
  title = {{Sweden South (SE4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se4/}
}

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