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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 90% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 291 MW (13.2%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 90% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 291 MW (13.2%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway North (NO4) came 16 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 58 MW, against average demand of 2,086 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 32% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.7%
Bias-1.6%
Hours within 5%90%
Worst miss291 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-36 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 291 MW (13.2%) too low at 4 Sept 2026, 06:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,911 MW, reported 2,202 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Norway North (NO4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Norway North (NO4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:002,102 MW2,071 MW
13 Sept, 15:002,108 MW2,060 MW
13 Sept, 16:002,146 MW2,068 MW
13 Sept, 17:002,177 MW2,082 MW
13 Sept, 18:002,140 MW2,075 MW
13 Sept, 19:002,194 MW2,107 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,195 MW2,106 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,195 MW2,101 MW
13 Sept, 22:002,151 MW2,072 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,072 MW2,059 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,078 MW1,991 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,066 MW1,964 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,017 MW1,956 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,027 MW1,950 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,043 MW1,959 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,074 MW1,969 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,146 MW2,048 MW
14 Sept, 07:002,212 MW2,132 MW
14 Sept, 08:002,181 MW2,172 MW
14 Sept, 09:002,161 MW2,177 MW
14 Sept, 10:002,136 MW2,168 MW
14 Sept, 11:002,096 MW2,148 MW
14 Sept, 12:002,100 MW2,126 MW
14 Sept, 13:002,103 MW2,125 MW
14 Sept, 14:002,055 MW2,132 MW
14 Sept, 15:002,045 MW2,126 MW
14 Sept, 16:002,093 MW2,131 MW
14 Sept, 17:002,074 MW2,113 MW
14 Sept, 18:002,086 MW2,116 MW
14 Sept, 19:002,120 MW2,142 MW
14 Sept, 20:002,124 MW2,130 MW
14 Sept, 21:002,124 MW2,124 MW
14 Sept, 22:002,128 MW2,091 MW
14 Sept, 23:002,111 MW2,055 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,091 MW2,080 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,068 MW2,042 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,065 MW2,040 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,056 MW2,023 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,082 MW2,037 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,096 MW2,046 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,152 MW2,094 MW
15 Sept, 07:002,221 MW2,178 MW
15 Sept, 08:002,263 MW2,203 MW
15 Sept, 09:002,238 MW2,189 MW
15 Sept, 10:002,237 MW2,177 MW
15 Sept, 11:002,205 MW2,161 MW
15 Sept, 12:002,131 MW2,146 MW
15 Sept, 13:002,144 MW2,143 MW
15 Sept, 14:002,096 MW2,155 MW
15 Sept, 15:002,123 MW2,161 MW
15 Sept, 16:002,159 MW2,170 MW
15 Sept, 17:002,162 MW2,129 MW
15 Sept, 18:002,158 MW2,133 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,195 MW2,132 MW
15 Sept, 20:002,199 MW2,141 MW
15 Sept, 21:002,185 MW2,131 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,162 MW2,099 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,075 MW2,064 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,051 MW2,041 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,048 MW2,028 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,033 MW1,997 MW
16 Sept, 03:001,970 MW2,003 MW
16 Sept, 04:001,966 MW1,998 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,976 MW2,013 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,015 MW2,054 MW
16 Sept, 07:002,093 MW2,147 MW
16 Sept, 08:002,170 MW2,181 MW
16 Sept, 09:002,164 MW2,183 MW
16 Sept, 10:002,132 MW2,167 MW
16 Sept, 11:002,159 MW2,164 MW
16 Sept, 12:002,130 MW2,149 MW
16 Sept, 13:002,132 MW2,126 MW
16 Sept, 14:002,145 MW2,147 MW
16 Sept, 15:002,155 MW2,167 MW
16 Sept, 16:002,212 MW2,172 MW
16 Sept, 17:002,136 MW2,161 MW
16 Sept, 18:002,154 MW2,157 MW
16 Sept, 19:002,179 MW2,172 MW
16 Sept, 20:002,143 MW2,164 MW
16 Sept, 21:002,144 MW2,157 MW
16 Sept, 22:002,107 MW2,130 MW
16 Sept, 23:002,074 MW2,065 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,010 MW2,044 MW
17 Sept, 01:001,996 MW2,013 MW
17 Sept, 02:001,992 MW1,990 MW
17 Sept, 03:001,948 MW1,979 MW
17 Sept, 04:001,976 MW1,970 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,000 MW1,998 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,101 MW2,033 MW
17 Sept, 07:002,195 MW2,128 MW
17 Sept, 08:002,238 MW2,175 MW
17 Sept, 09:002,194 MW2,197 MW
17 Sept, 10:002,235 MW2,177 MW
17 Sept, 11:002,229 MW2,184 MW
17 Sept, 12:002,184 MW2,148 MW
17 Sept, 13:002,214 MW2,157 MW
17 Sept, 14:002,207 MW2,154 MW
17 Sept, 15:002,249 MW2,173 MW
17 Sept, 16:002,248 MW2,170 MW
17 Sept, 17:002,252 MW2,165 MW
17 Sept, 18:002,264 MW2,180 MW
17 Sept, 19:002,247 MW2,216 MW
17 Sept, 20:002,274 MW2,200 MW
17 Sept, 21:002,282 MW2,190 MW
17 Sept, 22:002,238 MW2,161 MW
17 Sept, 23:002,183 MW2,121 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,137 MW2,071 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,097 MW2,084 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,061 MW2,059 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,077 MW2,040 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,095 MW2,042 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,116 MW2,073 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,218 MW2,116 MW
18 Sept, 07:002,339 MW2,192 MW
18 Sept, 08:00n/a2,223 MW
18 Sept, 09:002,352 MW2,217 MW
18 Sept, 10:002,313 MW2,200 MW
18 Sept, 11:002,291 MW2,199 MW
18 Sept, 12:002,248 MW2,171 MW
18 Sept, 13:002,208 MW2,164 MW
18 Sept, 14:002,206 MW2,151 MW
18 Sept, 15:002,236 MW2,144 MW
18 Sept, 16:002,216 MW2,152 MW
18 Sept, 17:002,232 MW2,151 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,179 MW2,153 MW
18 Sept, 19:002,268 MW2,149 MW
18 Sept, 20:002,299 MW2,163 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,274 MW2,147 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,248 MW2,119 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,207 MW2,097 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,177 MW2,121 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,168 MW2,110 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,133 MW2,073 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,117 MW2,061 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,123 MW2,058 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,117 MW2,069 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,147 MW2,099 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,183 MW2,148 MW
19 Sept, 08:00n/a2,171 MW
19 Sept, 09:002,233 MW2,189 MW
19 Sept, 10:002,229 MW2,191 MW
19 Sept, 11:002,205 MW2,186 MW
19 Sept, 12:002,191 MW2,162 MW
19 Sept, 13:002,176 MW2,151 MW
19 Sept, 14:002,194 MW2,149 MW
19 Sept, 15:002,161 MW2,129 MW
19 Sept, 16:002,153 MW2,137 MW
19 Sept, 17:002,194 MW2,144 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,214 MW2,152 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,244 MW2,171 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,224 MW2,145 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,188 MW2,144 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,144 MW2,130 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,095 MW2,083 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,056 MW2,123 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,024 MW2,103 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,009 MW2,082 MW
20 Sept, 03:001,986 MW2,075 MW
20 Sept, 04:001,983 MW2,071 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,994 MW2,050 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,995 MW2,069 MW
20 Sept, 07:002,023 MW2,124 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,067 MW2,146 MW
20 Sept, 09:002,082 MW2,153 MW
20 Sept, 10:002,096 MW2,148 MW
20 Sept, 11:002,095 MW2,139 MW
20 Sept, 12:002,108 MW2,128 MW
20 Sept, 13:002,102 MW2,115 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.