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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 254 MW (9.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway North (NO4) was off by 2.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 89% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -2.4%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 254 MW (9.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway North (NO4) came 20 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 65 MW, against average demand of 2,326 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 15% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.8%
Bias-2.4%
Hours within 5%89%
Worst miss254 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-57 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 254 MW (9.6%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,387 MW, reported 2,641 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway North (NO4) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 750 1,500 2,250 3,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway North (NO4) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:002,437 MW2,314 MW
29 Oct, 15:002,469 MW2,328 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,440 MW2,332 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,452 MW2,331 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,453 MW2,329 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,464 MW2,322 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,451 MW2,317 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,409 MW2,294 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,373 MW2,268 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,327 MW2,221 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,299 MW2,194 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,245 MW2,177 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,184 MW2,142 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,187 MW2,133 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,186 MW2,132 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,193 MW2,157 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,279 MW2,209 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,384 MW2,294 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,426 MW2,349 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,411 MW2,340 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,395 MW2,326 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,413 MW2,336 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,381 MW2,329 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,382 MW2,314 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,407 MW2,339 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,475 MW2,352 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,532 MW2,347 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,473 MW2,325 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,475 MW2,315 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,437 MW2,322 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,386 MW2,312 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,352 MW2,285 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,340 MW2,247 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,319 MW2,206 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,284 MW2,228 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,237 MW2,219 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,212 MW2,170 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,197 MW2,160 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,220 MW2,134 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,209 MW2,143 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,188 MW2,181 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,268 MW2,225 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,330 MW2,241 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,376 MW2,280 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,397 MW2,289 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,386 MW2,297 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,381 MW2,274 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,350 MW2,289 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,381 MW2,289 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,366 MW2,290 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,309 MW2,302 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,343 MW2,298 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,331 MW2,304 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,333 MW2,313 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,327 MW2,293 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,304 MW2,303 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,266 MW2,267 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,241 MW2,224 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,199 MW2,226 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,172 MW2,222 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,156 MW2,195 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,144 MW2,200 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,147 MW2,185 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,151 MW2,186 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,172 MW2,219 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,207 MW2,255 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,244 MW2,267 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,294 MW2,290 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,321 MW2,300 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,347 MW2,320 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,357 MW2,319 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,362 MW2,328 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,402 MW2,343 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,453 MW2,350 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,461 MW2,371 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,489 MW2,372 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,491 MW2,367 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,492 MW2,394 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,460 MW2,364 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,413 MW2,350 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,390 MW2,321 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,323 MW2,281 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,288 MW2,209 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,250 MW2,191 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,242 MW2,171 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,254 MW2,169 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,226 MW2,180 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,276 MW2,201 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,311 MW2,277 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,453 MW2,379 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,531 MW2,419 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,491 MW2,426 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,508 MW2,406 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,539 MW2,402 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,506 MW2,382 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,517 MW2,392 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,548 MW2,401 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,582 MW2,400 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,596 MW2,388 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,593 MW2,368 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,576 MW2,348 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,561 MW2,360 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,533 MW2,345 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,501 MW2,335 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,462 MW2,293 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,403 MW2,245 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,351 MW2,286 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,312 MW2,242 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,291 MW2,236 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,273 MW2,229 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,265 MW2,221 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,289 MW2,257 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,363 MW2,327 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,481 MW2,426 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,466 MW2,460 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,546 MW2,463 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,509 MW2,433 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,484 MW2,443 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,475 MW2,422 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,485 MW2,428 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,526 MW2,451 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,513 MW2,444 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,506 MW2,441 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,474 MW2,427 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,444 MW2,399 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,452 MW2,407 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,481 MW2,381 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,463 MW2,357 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,425 MW2,323 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,327 MW2,261 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,281 MW2,249 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,278 MW2,239 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,216 MW2,195 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,221 MW2,183 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,228 MW2,175 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,239 MW2,205 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,316 MW2,262 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,430 MW2,345 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,431 MW2,393 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,430 MW2,378 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,230 MW2,383 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,437 MW2,387 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,453 MW2,387 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,479 MW2,390 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,490 MW2,404 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,515 MW2,414 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,564 MW2,427 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,577 MW2,417 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,554 MW2,404 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,558 MW2,419 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,550 MW2,385 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,511 MW2,376 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,498 MW2,331 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,421 MW2,274 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,397 MW2,238 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,350 MW2,216 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,314 MW2,209 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,322 MW2,174 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,328 MW2,192 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,314 MW2,210 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,404 MW2,271 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,522 MW2,349 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,561 MW2,378 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,602 MW2,403 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,594 MW2,403 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,624 MW2,400 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,574 MW2,383 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,641 MW2,387 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no4_2026,
  title = {{Norway North (NO4) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no4/}
}

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