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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 11.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy South was off by 11.3% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy South came 42 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 246 MW, against average demand of 2,231 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 46% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error11.3%
Bias-0.6%
Hours within 5%27%
Worst miss943 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-47 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 943 MW (36.6%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,632 MW, reported 2,575 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy South day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy South over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy South over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:002,738 MW2,335 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,022 MW2,397 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,011 MW2,568 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,108 MW2,722 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,164 MW2,757 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,125 MW2,725 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,071 MW2,596 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,954 MW2,452 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,856 MW2,218 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,665 MW2,065 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,454 MW1,931 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,195 MW1,719 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,126 MW1,752 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,136 MW1,740 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,140 MW1,723 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,289 MW1,827 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,561 MW2,040 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,830 MW2,306 MW
30 Oct, 08:002,920 MW2,395 MW
30 Oct, 09:002,994 MW2,561 MW
30 Oct, 10:002,973 MW2,584 MW
30 Oct, 11:002,911 MW2,595 MW
30 Oct, 12:002,914 MW2,586 MW
30 Oct, 13:002,835 MW2,418 MW
30 Oct, 14:002,850 MW2,331 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,956 MW2,463 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,992 MW2,809 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,157 MW3,017 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,844 MW2,988 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,723 MW2,937 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,661 MW2,884 MW
30 Oct, 21:002,530 MW2,807 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,404 MW2,603 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,372 MW2,428 MW
31 Oct, 00:002,233 MW2,190 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,076 MW2,082 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,966 MW2,068 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,930 MW2,032 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,961 MW2,017 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,015 MW2,062 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,133 MW2,194 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,197 MW2,288 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,319 MW2,392 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,239 MW2,346 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,192 MW2,353 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,238 MW2,308 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,505 MW2,165 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,550 MW2,065 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,355 MW2,243 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,259 MW2,422 MW
31 Oct, 16:002,377 MW2,538 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,732 MW2,655 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,719 MW2,787 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,729 MW2,713 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,754 MW2,526 MW
31 Oct, 21:002,581 MW2,437 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,413 MW2,351 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,280 MW2,282 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,116 MW1,877 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,535 MW1,745 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,342 MW1,709 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,309 MW1,700 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,315 MW1,645 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,281 MW1,687 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,358 MW1,747 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,424 MW1,730 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,511 MW1,894 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,555 MW1,892 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,044 MW1,933 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,980 MW2,027 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,070 MW2,032 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,041 MW1,877 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,888 MW1,900 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,896 MW2,125 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,995 MW2,162 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,212 MW2,127 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,289 MW2,160 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,306 MW2,147 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,336 MW2,208 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,223 MW2,227 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,101 MW2,102 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,869 MW1,992 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,695 MW1,932 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,573 MW1,961 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,493 MW1,905 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,473 MW1,896 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,457 MW1,888 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,508 MW1,960 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,655 MW1,988 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,918 MW2,290 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,095 MW2,452 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,307 MW2,645 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,463 MW2,925 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,508 MW2,795 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,675 MW2,830 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,810 MW2,808 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,699 MW2,747 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,628 MW2,815 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,586 MW2,825 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,590 MW2,998 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,597 MW2,771 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,742 MW2,650 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,755 MW2,623 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,602 MW2,512 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,370 MW2,330 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,153 MW2,232 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,898 MW2,108 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,784 MW1,925 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,830 MW1,776 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,708 MW1,721 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,698 MW1,725 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,651 MW1,860 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,811 MW2,068 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,102 MW2,360 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,315 MW2,523 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,269 MW2,457 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,187 MW2,391 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,286 MW2,368 MW
3 Nov, 12:002,387 MW2,488 MW
3 Nov, 13:002,359 MW2,476 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,136 MW2,380 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,066 MW2,442 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,097 MW2,582 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,431 MW2,805 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,480 MW2,825 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,505 MW2,810 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,515 MW2,768 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,229 MW2,623 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,039 MW2,388 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,877 MW2,173 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,815 MW1,943 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,781 MW1,663 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,682 MW1,578 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,651 MW1,597 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,631 MW1,602 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,575 MW1,722 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,732 MW1,908 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,005 MW2,168 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,049 MW2,247 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,078 MW2,340 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,064 MW2,475 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,999 MW2,418 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,190 MW2,440 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,141 MW2,410 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,088 MW2,265 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,140 MW2,383 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,225 MW2,586 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,469 MW2,787 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,577 MW2,890 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,609 MW2,893 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,524 MW2,813 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,272 MW2,659 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,135 MW2,472 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,933 MW2,190 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,674 MW2,021 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,533 MW1,896 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,559 MW1,951 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,568 MW1,910 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,584 MW1,925 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,610 MW1,911 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,943 MW2,119 MW
5 Nov, 07:002,108 MW2,420 MW
5 Nov, 08:002,083 MW2,659 MW
5 Nov, 09:002,017 MW2,535 MW
5 Nov, 10:002,051 MW2,375 MW
5 Nov, 11:002,112 MW2,432 MW
5 Nov, 12:002,076 MW2,445 MW
5 Nov, 13:002,017 MW2,413 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sud_2026,
  title = {{Italy South Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sud/}
}

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