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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 632 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Copenhagen).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 1.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 632 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Denmark West (DK1) came 1 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 31 MW, against average demand of 2,857 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 46% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

632 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.1%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss375 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-7 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 375 MW (14.7%) too low at 18 Oct 2026, 03:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,174 MW, reported 2,549 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Denmark West (DK1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:003,135 MW3,160 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,002 MW3,025 MW
29 Oct, 16:002,902 MW2,913 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,997 MW2,989 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,898 MW2,906 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,750 MW2,749 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,667 MW2,657 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,555 MW2,550 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,507 MW2,446 MW
29 Oct, 23:002,497 MW2,375 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,631 MW2,611 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,681 MW2,686 MW
30 Oct, 02:00n/a2,690 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,698 MW2,700 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,505 MW2,534 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,405 MW2,428 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,643 MW2,642 MW
30 Oct, 07:002,954 MW2,947 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,108 MW3,099 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,190 MW3,174 MW
30 Oct, 10:00n/a3,356 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,462 MW3,498 MW
30 Oct, 12:00n/a3,460 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,201 MW3,217 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,081 MW3,102 MW
30 Oct, 15:002,830 MW2,874 MW
30 Oct, 16:002,801 MW2,789 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,916 MW2,917 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,769 MW2,786 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,550 MW2,537 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,465 MW2,463 MW
30 Oct, 21:00n/a2,369 MW
30 Oct, 22:002,266 MW2,301 MW
30 Oct, 23:002,217 MW2,242 MW
31 Oct, 00:00n/a2,299 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,367 MW2,362 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,378 MW2,378 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,427 MW2,413 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,309 MW2,324 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,164 MW2,189 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,127 MW2,136 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,267 MW2,267 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,430 MW2,415 MW
31 Oct, 09:00n/a2,619 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,817 MW2,793 MW
31 Oct, 11:00n/a2,852 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,852 MW2,867 MW
31 Oct, 13:002,805 MW2,807 MW
31 Oct, 14:002,692 MW2,713 MW
31 Oct, 15:002,596 MW2,604 MW
31 Oct, 16:00n/a2,589 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,660 MW2,674 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,522 MW2,538 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,358 MW2,364 MW
31 Oct, 20:00n/a2,247 MW
31 Oct, 21:00n/a2,192 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,119 MW2,093 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,075 MW2,029 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,236 MW2,201 MW
1 Nov, 01:00n/a2,249 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,264 MW2,252 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,279 MW2,273 MW
1 Nov, 04:00n/a2,215 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,045 MW2,069 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,017 MW2,024 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,150 MW2,143 MW
1 Nov, 08:00n/a2,325 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,508 MW2,507 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,626 MW2,634 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,711 MW2,701 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,723 MW2,736 MW
1 Nov, 13:00n/a2,697 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,669 MW2,676 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,612 MW2,618 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,659 MW2,646 MW
1 Nov, 17:00n/a2,776 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,605 MW2,610 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,510 MW2,497 MW
1 Nov, 20:00n/a2,370 MW
1 Nov, 21:002,317 MW2,312 MW
1 Nov, 22:002,325 MW2,258 MW
1 Nov, 23:002,293 MW2,193 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,392 MW2,382 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,450 MW2,447 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,589 MW2,551 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,703 MW2,687 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,572 MW2,594 MW
2 Nov, 05:00n/a2,451 MW
2 Nov, 06:002,661 MW2,661 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,925 MW2,925 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,116 MW3,093 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,100 MW3,120 MW
2 Nov, 10:003,261 MW3,247 MW
2 Nov, 11:003,238 MW3,265 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,378 MW3,248 MW
2 Nov, 13:003,373 MW3,253 MW
2 Nov, 14:00n/a3,220 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,189 MW3,236 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,098 MW3,228 MW
2 Nov, 17:00n/a3,296 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,960 MW3,214 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,895 MW3,081 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,757 MW2,980 MW
2 Nov, 21:00n/a2,896 MW
2 Nov, 22:00n/a2,813 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,527 MW2,729 MW
3 Nov, 00:002,968 MW2,734 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,920 MW2,715 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,888 MW2,694 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,663 MW2,649 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,425 MW2,606 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,450 MW2,652 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,770 MW2,900 MW
3 Nov, 07:00n/a3,152 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,154 MW3,258 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,270 MW3,264 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,407 MW3,327 MW
3 Nov, 11:003,456 MW3,350 MW
3 Nov, 12:003,446 MW3,448 MW
3 Nov, 13:003,467 MW3,454 MW
3 Nov, 14:00n/a3,387 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,125 MW3,154 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,061 MW3,060 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,235 MW3,235 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,103 MW3,118 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,919 MW2,920 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,839 MW2,811 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,814 MW2,811 MW
3 Nov, 22:00n/a2,734 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,649 MW2,686 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,977 MW2,951 MW
4 Nov, 01:00n/a2,876 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,917 MW2,911 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,992 MW2,977 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,722 MW2,760 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,656 MW2,669 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,819 MW2,837 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,132 MW3,129 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,306 MW3,288 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,389 MW3,385 MW
4 Nov, 10:003,490 MW3,495 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,529 MW3,529 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,531 MW3,542 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,441 MW3,450 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,275 MW3,284 MW
4 Nov, 15:00n/a3,171 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,157 MW3,149 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,277 MW3,280 MW
4 Nov, 18:00n/a3,145 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,892 MW2,905 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,783 MW2,775 MW
4 Nov, 21:00n/a2,894 MW
4 Nov, 22:00n/a2,845 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,701 MW2,806 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,284 MW3,193 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,336 MW3,338 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,135 MW3,166 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,953 MW2,976 MW
5 Nov, 04:00n/a2,616 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,588 MW2,576 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,911 MW2,888 MW
5 Nov, 07:00n/a3,205 MW
5 Nov, 08:00n/a3,342 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,361 MW3,362 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,504 MW3,492 MW
5 Nov, 11:00n/a3,534 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,593 MW3,520 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,427 MW3,460 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (632 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_dk1_2026,
  title = {{Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/dk1/}
}

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