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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Denmark West (DK1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 517 MW (16.2%) too low at 20 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Copenhagen).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Denmark West (DK1) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 91% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 517 MW (16.2%) too low at 20 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Denmark West (DK1) came 7 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 52 MW, against average demand of 2,599 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 50% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.1%
Bias+0.2%
Hours within 5%91%
Worst miss517 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+1 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 517 MW (16.2%) too low at 20 Sept 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,685 MW, reported 3,202 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Denmark West (DK1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 13 Sept, 15:0014 Sept, 15:0015 Sept, 15:0016 Sept, 15:0017 Sept, 15:0018 Sept, 15:0019 Sept, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Denmark West (DK1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Denmark West (DK1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 15:002,875 MW2,788 MW
13 Sept, 16:002,760 MW2,750 MW
13 Sept, 17:002,708 MW2,703 MW
13 Sept, 18:002,646 MW2,635 MW
13 Sept, 19:002,448 MW2,471 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,320 MW2,361 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,257 MW2,216 MW
13 Sept, 22:002,119 MW2,167 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,100 MW2,174 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,132 MW2,138 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,157 MW2,147 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,155 MW2,173 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,086 MW2,139 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,006 MW2,068 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,088 MW2,091 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,387 MW2,332 MW
14 Sept, 07:002,660 MW2,632 MW
14 Sept, 08:002,774 MW2,769 MW
14 Sept, 09:002,754 MW2,719 MW
14 Sept, 10:002,985 MW2,935 MW
14 Sept, 11:002,951 MW2,988 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,057 MW3,022 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,217 MW3,154 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,181 MW3,182 MW
14 Sept, 15:002,965 MW2,974 MW
14 Sept, 16:002,881 MW2,847 MW
14 Sept, 17:002,832 MW2,867 MW
14 Sept, 18:002,660 MW2,669 MW
14 Sept, 19:002,400 MW2,513 MW
14 Sept, 20:002,352 MW2,401 MW
14 Sept, 21:002,350 MW2,397 MW
14 Sept, 22:002,289 MW2,474 MW
14 Sept, 23:002,211 MW2,517 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,169 MW2,182 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,129 MW2,138 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,194 MW2,164 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,167 MW2,172 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,176 MW2,161 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,157 MW2,180 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,450 MW2,487 MW
15 Sept, 07:002,696 MW2,688 MW
15 Sept, 08:002,866 MW2,855 MW
15 Sept, 09:002,850 MW2,856 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,008 MW2,996 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,260 MW3,187 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,485 MW3,386 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,646 MW3,574 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,512 MW3,518 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,129 MW3,197 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,040 MW3,017 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,116 MW3,106 MW
15 Sept, 18:002,856 MW2,930 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,721 MW2,724 MW
15 Sept, 20:002,640 MW2,631 MW
15 Sept, 21:002,565 MW2,524 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,453 MW2,357 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,386 MW2,271 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,348 MW2,328 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,392 MW2,356 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,384 MW2,368 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,289 MW2,312 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,134 MW2,170 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,128 MW2,154 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,449 MW2,467 MW
16 Sept, 07:002,696 MW2,703 MW
16 Sept, 08:002,846 MW2,831 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,015 MW2,962 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,071 MW3,148 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,344 MW3,241 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,249 MW3,211 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,421 MW3,358 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,322 MW3,350 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,105 MW3,115 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,001 MW2,988 MW
16 Sept, 17:002,990 MW3,016 MW
16 Sept, 18:002,796 MW2,863 MW
16 Sept, 19:002,584 MW2,632 MW
16 Sept, 20:002,570 MW2,584 MW
16 Sept, 21:002,523 MW2,506 MW
16 Sept, 22:00n/a2,379 MW
16 Sept, 23:00n/a2,324 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,323 MW2,277 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,367 MW2,337 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,347 MW2,333 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,361 MW2,322 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,299 MW2,296 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,246 MW2,304 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,507 MW2,512 MW
17 Sept, 07:002,745 MW2,754 MW
17 Sept, 08:002,800 MW2,842 MW
17 Sept, 09:002,870 MW2,840 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,106 MW3,060 MW
17 Sept, 11:003,449 MW3,315 MW
17 Sept, 12:003,756 MW3,624 MW
17 Sept, 13:003,928 MW3,807 MW
17 Sept, 14:003,769 MW3,755 MW
17 Sept, 15:003,410 MW3,468 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,259 MW3,290 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,090 MW3,116 MW
17 Sept, 18:002,890 MW2,926 MW
17 Sept, 19:002,718 MW2,733 MW
17 Sept, 20:002,578 MW2,652 MW
17 Sept, 21:002,510 MW2,509 MW
17 Sept, 22:002,441 MW2,384 MW
17 Sept, 23:002,297 MW2,368 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,305 MW2,300 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,319 MW2,297 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,314 MW2,278 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,328 MW2,288 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,265 MW2,275 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,282 MW2,271 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,473 MW2,411 MW
18 Sept, 07:002,729 MW2,685 MW
18 Sept, 08:002,913 MW2,882 MW
18 Sept, 09:002,956 MW2,914 MW
18 Sept, 10:003,210 MW3,067 MW
18 Sept, 11:003,361 MW3,254 MW
18 Sept, 12:003,494 MW3,434 MW
18 Sept, 13:003,559 MW3,541 MW
18 Sept, 14:003,418 MW3,399 MW
18 Sept, 15:003,353 MW3,258 MW
18 Sept, 16:003,180 MW3,154 MW
18 Sept, 17:003,004 MW3,054 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,652 MW2,735 MW
18 Sept, 19:002,575 MW2,574 MW
18 Sept, 20:002,392 MW2,473 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,360 MW2,382 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,260 MW2,277 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,230 MW2,217 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,167 MW2,180 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,194 MW2,160 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,306 MW2,275 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,502 MW2,379 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,455 MW2,443 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,427 MW2,405 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,390 MW2,412 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,512 MW2,504 MW
19 Sept, 08:002,738 MW2,713 MW
19 Sept, 09:002,935 MW2,916 MW
19 Sept, 10:003,223 MW3,211 MW
19 Sept, 11:003,535 MW3,508 MW
19 Sept, 12:003,659 MW3,658 MW
19 Sept, 13:003,644 MW3,653 MW
19 Sept, 14:003,579 MW3,573 MW
19 Sept, 15:003,367 MW3,359 MW
19 Sept, 16:003,138 MW3,126 MW
19 Sept, 17:002,965 MW3,005 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,742 MW2,865 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,497 MW2,527 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,293 MW2,335 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,262 MW2,163 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,170 MW2,118 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,146 MW2,095 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,280 MW2,186 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,282 MW2,214 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,328 MW2,246 MW
20 Sept, 03:002,293 MW2,236 MW
20 Sept, 04:002,228 MW2,203 MW
20 Sept, 05:002,121 MW2,122 MW
20 Sept, 06:002,092 MW2,098 MW
20 Sept, 07:002,202 MW2,187 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,443 MW2,344 MW
20 Sept, 09:002,669 MW2,434 MW
20 Sept, 10:002,867 MW2,577 MW
20 Sept, 11:003,202 MW2,685 MW
20 Sept, 12:003,302 MW2,827 MW
20 Sept, 13:003,255 MW2,903 MW
20 Sept, 14:003,339 MW3,014 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.