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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 2.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 88% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.2%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy North came 15 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 442 MW, against average demand of 17,632 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.5%
Bias-0.2%
Hours within 5%88%
Worst miss2,522 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,522 MW (13.5%) too high at 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 21,215 MW, reported 18,693 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:0020,398 MW20,178 MW
29 Oct, 15:0021,277 MW21,266 MW
29 Oct, 16:0022,197 MW21,782 MW
29 Oct, 17:0022,617 MW22,091 MW
29 Oct, 18:0022,821 MW22,233 MW
29 Oct, 19:0022,423 MW22,019 MW
29 Oct, 20:0021,116 MW20,831 MW
29 Oct, 21:0019,549 MW19,267 MW
29 Oct, 22:0017,607 MW17,555 MW
29 Oct, 23:0016,444 MW16,084 MW
30 Oct, 00:0015,368 MW15,113 MW
30 Oct, 01:0014,800 MW14,551 MW
30 Oct, 02:0014,401 MW14,207 MW
30 Oct, 03:0014,231 MW14,189 MW
30 Oct, 04:0014,425 MW14,351 MW
30 Oct, 05:0015,555 MW15,433 MW
30 Oct, 06:0018,399 MW18,999 MW
30 Oct, 07:0020,928 MW21,190 MW
30 Oct, 08:0022,551 MW22,368 MW
30 Oct, 09:0022,058 MW21,972 MW
30 Oct, 10:0021,145 MW21,287 MW
30 Oct, 11:0020,307 MW20,852 MW
30 Oct, 12:0018,914 MW19,820 MW
30 Oct, 13:0019,091 MW20,058 MW
30 Oct, 14:0019,996 MW20,519 MW
30 Oct, 15:0020,481 MW20,917 MW
30 Oct, 16:0020,974 MW21,403 MW
30 Oct, 17:0021,757 MW21,966 MW
30 Oct, 18:0021,972 MW22,458 MW
30 Oct, 19:0021,577 MW21,580 MW
30 Oct, 20:0020,264 MW20,652 MW
30 Oct, 21:0018,821 MW18,686 MW
30 Oct, 22:0016,997 MW16,934 MW
30 Oct, 23:0015,732 MW15,869 MW
31 Oct, 00:0014,886 MW14,932 MW
31 Oct, 01:0014,224 MW14,184 MW
31 Oct, 02:0013,746 MW13,642 MW
31 Oct, 03:0013,655 MW13,470 MW
31 Oct, 04:0013,635 MW13,646 MW
31 Oct, 05:0013,858 MW14,167 MW
31 Oct, 06:0014,938 MW15,304 MW
31 Oct, 07:0015,782 MW16,460 MW
31 Oct, 08:0016,169 MW17,081 MW
31 Oct, 09:0015,790 MW16,583 MW
31 Oct, 10:0014,964 MW15,755 MW
31 Oct, 11:0014,173 MW14,906 MW
31 Oct, 12:0013,492 MW13,971 MW
31 Oct, 13:0013,242 MW13,414 MW
31 Oct, 14:0013,577 MW13,598 MW
31 Oct, 15:0014,309 MW14,509 MW
31 Oct, 16:0015,469 MW15,670 MW
31 Oct, 17:0017,260 MW17,060 MW
31 Oct, 18:0018,306 MW18,161 MW
31 Oct, 19:0018,308 MW18,162 MW
31 Oct, 20:0017,180 MW17,191 MW
31 Oct, 21:0015,880 MW15,926 MW
31 Oct, 22:0014,852 MW14,613 MW
31 Oct, 23:0013,993 MW13,556 MW
1 Nov, 00:0012,862 MW12,346 MW
1 Nov, 01:0012,362 MW11,569 MW
1 Nov, 02:0011,849 MW11,177 MW
1 Nov, 03:0011,639 MW11,059 MW
1 Nov, 04:0011,518 MW11,175 MW
1 Nov, 05:0011,752 MW11,459 MW
1 Nov, 06:0012,321 MW11,992 MW
1 Nov, 07:0012,565 MW12,115 MW
1 Nov, 08:0012,995 MW12,426 MW
1 Nov, 09:0013,119 MW12,950 MW
1 Nov, 10:0012,884 MW13,065 MW
1 Nov, 11:0012,812 MW13,112 MW
1 Nov, 12:0012,624 MW13,150 MW
1 Nov, 13:0012,319 MW12,472 MW
1 Nov, 14:0012,667 MW12,506 MW
1 Nov, 15:0013,257 MW12,928 MW
1 Nov, 16:0014,204 MW13,734 MW
1 Nov, 17:0015,903 MW14,594 MW
1 Nov, 18:0016,924 MW15,359 MW
1 Nov, 19:0017,281 MW15,837 MW
1 Nov, 20:0016,457 MW15,509 MW
1 Nov, 21:0015,354 MW14,692 MW
1 Nov, 22:0014,256 MW13,618 MW
1 Nov, 23:0013,079 MW12,504 MW
2 Nov, 00:0012,170 MW12,069 MW
2 Nov, 01:0011,602 MW11,993 MW
2 Nov, 02:0011,333 MW11,762 MW
2 Nov, 03:0011,441 MW11,773 MW
2 Nov, 04:0011,775 MW12,077 MW
2 Nov, 05:0013,258 MW13,707 MW
2 Nov, 06:0016,909 MW17,554 MW
2 Nov, 07:0020,146 MW20,557 MW
2 Nov, 08:0022,231 MW22,823 MW
2 Nov, 09:0022,371 MW22,454 MW
2 Nov, 10:0021,957 MW21,509 MW
2 Nov, 11:0021,381 MW20,856 MW
2 Nov, 12:0019,921 MW19,720 MW
2 Nov, 13:0020,400 MW20,133 MW
2 Nov, 14:0021,002 MW21,157 MW
2 Nov, 15:0021,561 MW21,778 MW
2 Nov, 16:0022,078 MW22,237 MW
2 Nov, 17:0022,675 MW22,912 MW
2 Nov, 18:0022,676 MW22,833 MW
2 Nov, 19:0022,496 MW22,387 MW
2 Nov, 20:0021,360 MW21,085 MW
2 Nov, 21:0019,774 MW19,476 MW
2 Nov, 22:0017,701 MW17,352 MW
2 Nov, 23:0016,269 MW15,923 MW
3 Nov, 00:0015,084 MW15,427 MW
3 Nov, 01:0014,464 MW14,612 MW
3 Nov, 02:0014,114 MW14,445 MW
3 Nov, 03:0013,998 MW14,508 MW
3 Nov, 04:0014,300 MW14,694 MW
3 Nov, 05:0015,517 MW15,815 MW
3 Nov, 06:0018,767 MW19,189 MW
3 Nov, 07:0021,481 MW21,903 MW
3 Nov, 08:0023,215 MW23,552 MW
3 Nov, 09:0023,479 MW23,438 MW
3 Nov, 10:0022,996 MW22,749 MW
3 Nov, 11:0022,658 MW22,280 MW
3 Nov, 12:0021,522 MW21,005 MW
3 Nov, 13:0022,199 MW21,373 MW
3 Nov, 14:0023,096 MW22,305 MW
3 Nov, 15:0023,305 MW23,111 MW
3 Nov, 16:0023,420 MW23,585 MW
3 Nov, 17:0023,896 MW23,818 MW
3 Nov, 18:0023,539 MW23,632 MW
3 Nov, 19:0023,177 MW23,070 MW
3 Nov, 20:0022,071 MW21,707 MW
3 Nov, 21:0020,389 MW19,911 MW
3 Nov, 22:0018,358 MW17,981 MW
3 Nov, 23:0017,011 MW16,470 MW
4 Nov, 00:0015,605 MW15,464 MW
4 Nov, 01:0014,860 MW14,789 MW
4 Nov, 02:0014,643 MW14,190 MW
4 Nov, 03:0014,663 MW14,109 MW
4 Nov, 04:0014,868 MW14,317 MW
4 Nov, 05:0015,954 MW15,593 MW
4 Nov, 06:0019,106 MW19,280 MW
4 Nov, 07:0022,010 MW22,222 MW
4 Nov, 08:0023,755 MW24,159 MW
4 Nov, 09:0024,061 MW24,222 MW
4 Nov, 10:0024,116 MW23,868 MW
4 Nov, 11:0024,272 MW23,732 MW
4 Nov, 12:0022,946 MW22,373 MW
4 Nov, 13:0023,108 MW22,598 MW
4 Nov, 14:0023,490 MW23,319 MW
4 Nov, 15:0023,650 MW23,789 MW
4 Nov, 16:0023,690 MW24,509 MW
4 Nov, 17:0023,897 MW25,045 MW
4 Nov, 18:0023,572 MW24,522 MW
4 Nov, 19:0023,330 MW24,037 MW
4 Nov, 20:0021,910 MW22,400 MW
4 Nov, 21:0020,224 MW20,523 MW
4 Nov, 22:0018,276 MW18,240 MW
4 Nov, 23:0016,916 MW16,612 MW
5 Nov, 00:0015,903 MW15,559 MW
5 Nov, 01:0015,163 MW14,878 MW
5 Nov, 02:0014,884 MW14,455 MW
5 Nov, 03:0014,839 MW14,405 MW
5 Nov, 04:0015,087 MW14,677 MW
5 Nov, 05:0016,118 MW15,842 MW
5 Nov, 06:0019,414 MW19,136 MW
5 Nov, 07:0022,121 MW21,729 MW
5 Nov, 08:0023,593 MW23,523 MW
5 Nov, 09:0023,619 MW23,875 MW
5 Nov, 10:0023,237 MW23,494 MW
5 Nov, 11:0022,705 MW23,075 MW
5 Nov, 12:0021,336 MW21,509 MW
5 Nov, 13:0021,796 MW21,905 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_nord_2026,
  title = {{Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-nord/}
}

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