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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Italy North Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,106 MW (13.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy North was off by 3.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 72% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.7%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 3,106 MW (13.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy North came 24 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 676 MW, against average demand of 18,559 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 40% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error3.6%
Bias-0.7%
Hours within 5%72%
Worst miss3,106 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-177 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 3,106 MW (13.0%) too low at 28 Aug 2026, 16:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 20,706 MW, reported 23,812 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Italy North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy North over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Italy North day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:0010,449 MW10,914 MW
13 Sept, 15:0010,789 MW11,161 MW
13 Sept, 16:0011,759 MW11,820 MW
13 Sept, 17:0013,663 MW13,836 MW
13 Sept, 18:0015,470 MW15,630 MW
13 Sept, 19:0016,858 MW16,984 MW
13 Sept, 20:0016,908 MW17,090 MW
13 Sept, 21:0015,803 MW16,598 MW
13 Sept, 22:0014,625 MW15,482 MW
13 Sept, 23:0013,540 MW14,242 MW
14 Sept, 00:0012,705 MW13,239 MW
14 Sept, 01:0012,300 MW12,665 MW
14 Sept, 02:0012,044 MW12,400 MW
14 Sept, 03:0012,018 MW12,285 MW
14 Sept, 04:0012,279 MW12,508 MW
14 Sept, 05:0013,671 MW13,748 MW
14 Sept, 06:0017,270 MW17,333 MW
14 Sept, 07:0019,900 MW20,197 MW
14 Sept, 08:0021,852 MW22,359 MW
14 Sept, 09:0021,493 MW22,076 MW
14 Sept, 10:0020,356 MW21,406 MW
14 Sept, 11:0019,714 MW20,617 MW
14 Sept, 12:0018,041 MW19,313 MW
14 Sept, 13:0018,201 MW19,577 MW
14 Sept, 14:0019,057 MW20,144 MW
14 Sept, 15:0019,911 MW20,783 MW
14 Sept, 16:0020,540 MW21,244 MW
14 Sept, 17:0021,038 MW21,842 MW
14 Sept, 18:0021,627 MW22,641 MW
14 Sept, 19:0022,325 MW23,051 MW
14 Sept, 20:0021,735 MW22,686 MW
14 Sept, 21:0020,055 MW20,876 MW
14 Sept, 22:0018,170 MW18,613 MW
14 Sept, 23:0016,757 MW17,279 MW
15 Sept, 00:0015,696 MW16,256 MW
15 Sept, 01:0015,073 MW15,447 MW
15 Sept, 02:0014,696 MW15,026 MW
15 Sept, 03:0014,539 MW14,866 MW
15 Sept, 04:0014,753 MW14,832 MW
15 Sept, 05:0015,614 MW15,669 MW
15 Sept, 06:0018,712 MW18,665 MW
15 Sept, 07:0021,113 MW21,468 MW
15 Sept, 08:0022,864 MW23,090 MW
15 Sept, 09:0022,757 MW22,517 MW
15 Sept, 10:0022,115 MW21,492 MW
15 Sept, 11:0021,190 MW21,007 MW
15 Sept, 12:0019,260 MW19,668 MW
15 Sept, 13:0019,523 MW20,014 MW
15 Sept, 14:0020,151 MW20,328 MW
15 Sept, 15:0020,780 MW20,735 MW
15 Sept, 16:0021,521 MW21,280 MW
15 Sept, 17:0022,010 MW21,644 MW
15 Sept, 18:0022,581 MW22,240 MW
15 Sept, 19:0023,033 MW23,150 MW
15 Sept, 20:0022,582 MW22,778 MW
15 Sept, 21:0020,832 MW21,123 MW
15 Sept, 22:0018,817 MW18,858 MW
15 Sept, 23:0017,301 MW17,394 MW
16 Sept, 00:0016,008 MW16,322 MW
16 Sept, 01:0015,316 MW15,661 MW
16 Sept, 02:0015,004 MW15,316 MW
16 Sept, 03:0014,778 MW15,171 MW
16 Sept, 04:0014,995 MW15,146 MW
16 Sept, 05:0015,964 MW16,008 MW
16 Sept, 06:0019,123 MW18,954 MW
16 Sept, 07:0021,692 MW21,562 MW
16 Sept, 08:0023,471 MW23,384 MW
16 Sept, 09:0023,128 MW22,943 MW
16 Sept, 10:0022,205 MW22,019 MW
16 Sept, 11:0021,112 MW21,651 MW
16 Sept, 12:0019,404 MW20,332 MW
16 Sept, 13:0019,717 MW20,635 MW
16 Sept, 14:0020,734 MW20,980 MW
16 Sept, 15:0021,715 MW21,398 MW
16 Sept, 16:0022,407 MW21,814 MW
16 Sept, 17:0022,857 MW22,178 MW
16 Sept, 18:0022,960 MW22,418 MW
16 Sept, 19:0023,488 MW23,149 MW
16 Sept, 20:0022,665 MW22,413 MW
16 Sept, 21:0021,042 MW20,634 MW
16 Sept, 22:0018,785 MW18,562 MW
16 Sept, 23:0017,217 MW17,186 MW
17 Sept, 00:0016,047 MW15,719 MW
17 Sept, 01:0015,428 MW15,163 MW
17 Sept, 02:0015,045 MW14,787 MW
17 Sept, 03:0014,826 MW14,706 MW
17 Sept, 04:0015,049 MW14,686 MW
17 Sept, 05:0015,963 MW15,648 MW
17 Sept, 06:0019,109 MW18,594 MW
17 Sept, 07:0021,919 MW21,064 MW
17 Sept, 08:0024,095 MW22,982 MW
17 Sept, 09:0024,524 MW22,898 MW
17 Sept, 10:0024,149 MW22,220 MW
17 Sept, 11:0023,863 MW21,643 MW
17 Sept, 12:0021,982 MW20,276 MW
17 Sept, 13:0021,399 MW20,200 MW
17 Sept, 14:0021,069 MW20,523 MW
17 Sept, 15:0021,062 MW20,790 MW
17 Sept, 16:0021,210 MW21,210 MW
17 Sept, 17:0021,227 MW21,562 MW
17 Sept, 18:0021,821 MW21,833 MW
17 Sept, 19:0022,587 MW22,277 MW
17 Sept, 20:0021,793 MW21,601 MW
17 Sept, 21:0019,878 MW19,860 MW
17 Sept, 22:0018,056 MW17,981 MW
17 Sept, 23:0016,847 MW16,634 MW
18 Sept, 00:0015,993 MW15,695 MW
18 Sept, 01:0015,312 MW15,013 MW
18 Sept, 02:0014,872 MW14,750 MW
18 Sept, 03:0014,761 MW14,517 MW
18 Sept, 04:0014,937 MW14,692 MW
18 Sept, 05:0015,912 MW15,479 MW
18 Sept, 06:0018,807 MW18,496 MW
18 Sept, 07:0021,371 MW21,193 MW
18 Sept, 08:0023,333 MW23,243 MW
18 Sept, 09:0023,509 MW23,474 MW
18 Sept, 10:0022,673 MW22,998 MW
18 Sept, 11:0021,853 MW22,090 MW
18 Sept, 12:0019,763 MW20,378 MW
18 Sept, 13:0019,407 MW20,216 MW
18 Sept, 14:0019,816 MW20,669 MW
18 Sept, 15:0020,087 MW21,058 MW
18 Sept, 16:0020,382 MW21,317 MW
18 Sept, 17:0020,681 MW21,571 MW
18 Sept, 18:0021,100 MW21,394 MW
18 Sept, 19:0021,644 MW21,827 MW
18 Sept, 20:0020,943 MW21,218 MW
18 Sept, 21:0019,388 MW19,530 MW
18 Sept, 22:0017,710 MW17,791 MW
18 Sept, 23:0016,620 MW16,474 MW
19 Sept, 00:0015,647 MW15,514 MW
19 Sept, 01:0015,101 MW14,771 MW
19 Sept, 02:0014,465 MW14,346 MW
19 Sept, 03:0014,250 MW14,070 MW
19 Sept, 04:0014,085 MW14,001 MW
19 Sept, 05:0014,270 MW14,156 MW
19 Sept, 06:0015,242 MW15,399 MW
19 Sept, 07:0015,912 MW16,331 MW
19 Sept, 08:0016,369 MW16,773 MW
19 Sept, 09:0016,277 MW16,458 MW
19 Sept, 10:0015,321 MW15,710 MW
19 Sept, 11:0014,210 MW14,940 MW
19 Sept, 12:0013,336 MW13,711 MW
19 Sept, 13:0012,841 MW12,766 MW
19 Sept, 14:0012,456 MW12,223 MW
19 Sept, 15:0012,812 MW12,516 MW
19 Sept, 16:0013,666 MW13,418 MW
19 Sept, 17:0015,291 MW15,406 MW
19 Sept, 18:0016,966 MW17,290 MW
19 Sept, 19:0017,946 MW18,350 MW
19 Sept, 20:0017,400 MW17,816 MW
19 Sept, 21:0016,338 MW16,759 MW
19 Sept, 22:0015,170 MW15,361 MW
19 Sept, 23:0014,164 MW14,311 MW
20 Sept, 00:0013,456 MW13,296 MW
20 Sept, 01:0012,824 MW12,620 MW
20 Sept, 02:0012,408 MW12,252 MW
20 Sept, 03:0012,151 MW12,064 MW
20 Sept, 04:0012,115 MW12,057 MW
20 Sept, 05:0012,354 MW12,267 MW
20 Sept, 06:0012,773 MW12,803 MW
20 Sept, 07:0012,627 MW12,785 MW
20 Sept, 08:0012,778 MW12,852 MW
20 Sept, 09:0012,595 MW12,839 MW
20 Sept, 10:0012,111 MW12,497 MW
20 Sept, 11:0011,450 MW12,451 MW
20 Sept, 12:0010,992 MW12,371 MW
20 Sept, 13:0010,238 MW11,535 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.