Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Warsaw).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Poland was off by 1.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 97% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Poland came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 318 MW, against average demand of 18,943 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 69% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.7%
Bias+1.0%
Hours within 5%97%
Worst miss2,479 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+188 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,479 MW (12.5%) too high at 16 Oct 2026, 11:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 22,238 MW, reported 19,759 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Poland day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Poland over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 6,250 12,500 18,750 25,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Poland over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:0022,667 MW22,675 MW
29 Oct, 15:0022,650 MW22,700 MW
29 Oct, 16:0022,855 MW23,050 MW
29 Oct, 17:0023,046 MW23,150 MW
29 Oct, 18:0022,812 MW22,888 MW
29 Oct, 19:0022,685 MW22,888 MW
29 Oct, 20:0022,003 MW22,350 MW
29 Oct, 21:0020,490 MW20,775 MW
29 Oct, 22:0018,957 MW19,200 MW
29 Oct, 23:0017,608 MW17,838 MW
30 Oct, 00:0016,772 MW17,025 MW
30 Oct, 01:0016,207 MW16,550 MW
30 Oct, 02:0016,024 MW16,450 MW
30 Oct, 03:0016,015 MW16,450 MW
30 Oct, 04:0016,382 MW16,813 MW
30 Oct, 05:0017,585 MW17,950 MW
30 Oct, 06:0019,898 MW20,475 MW
30 Oct, 07:0021,551 MW21,950 MW
30 Oct, 08:0022,053 MW22,575 MW
30 Oct, 09:0022,089 MW22,700 MW
30 Oct, 10:0022,113 MW22,713 MW
30 Oct, 11:0022,336 MW22,850 MW
30 Oct, 12:0022,575 MW22,988 MW
30 Oct, 13:0022,490 MW22,750 MW
30 Oct, 14:0022,254 MW22,625 MW
30 Oct, 15:0022,216 MW22,638 MW
30 Oct, 16:0022,556 MW22,813 MW
30 Oct, 17:0022,721 MW22,875 MW
30 Oct, 18:0022,472 MW22,588 MW
30 Oct, 19:0022,220 MW22,475 MW
30 Oct, 20:0021,483 MW21,763 MW
30 Oct, 21:0019,952 MW20,400 MW
30 Oct, 22:0018,555 MW18,788 MW
30 Oct, 23:0017,266 MW17,325 MW
31 Oct, 00:0016,330 MW16,425 MW
31 Oct, 01:0015,609 MW15,838 MW
31 Oct, 02:0015,339 MW15,563 MW
31 Oct, 03:0015,169 MW15,550 MW
31 Oct, 04:0015,212 MW15,638 MW
31 Oct, 05:0015,356 MW15,963 MW
31 Oct, 06:0016,043 MW16,950 MW
31 Oct, 07:0017,084 MW17,913 MW
31 Oct, 08:0018,283 MW18,925 MW
31 Oct, 09:0019,216 MW19,150 MW
31 Oct, 10:0019,125 MW19,150 MW
31 Oct, 11:0019,353 MW19,150 MW
31 Oct, 12:0019,495 MW19,150 MW
31 Oct, 13:0019,441 MW19,125 MW
31 Oct, 14:0019,355 MW19,100 MW
31 Oct, 15:0019,229 MW19,113 MW
31 Oct, 16:0019,538 MW19,763 MW
31 Oct, 17:0019,710 MW20,200 MW
31 Oct, 18:0019,370 MW19,800 MW
31 Oct, 19:0019,224 MW19,500 MW
31 Oct, 20:0018,648 MW18,900 MW
31 Oct, 21:0017,542 MW17,800 MW
31 Oct, 22:0016,473 MW16,713 MW
31 Oct, 23:0015,148 MW15,663 MW
1 Nov, 00:0014,195 MW14,700 MW
1 Nov, 01:0013,637 MW14,150 MW
1 Nov, 02:0013,262 MW13,900 MW
1 Nov, 03:0013,166 MW13,800 MW
1 Nov, 04:0013,205 MW13,800 MW
1 Nov, 05:0013,433 MW13,875 MW
1 Nov, 06:0013,721 MW13,963 MW
1 Nov, 07:0014,691 MW14,650 MW
1 Nov, 08:0015,589 MW15,625 MW
1 Nov, 09:0016,195 MW16,238 MW
1 Nov, 10:0016,208 MW16,250 MW
1 Nov, 11:0016,381 MW16,150 MW
1 Nov, 12:0016,217 MW16,213 MW
1 Nov, 13:0016,559 MW16,225 MW
1 Nov, 14:0016,436 MW16,225 MW
1 Nov, 15:0016,531 MW16,463 MW
1 Nov, 16:0016,838 MW17,313 MW
1 Nov, 17:0017,248 MW17,950 MW
1 Nov, 18:0017,473 MW18,000 MW
1 Nov, 19:0017,626 MW18,038 MW
1 Nov, 20:0017,264 MW17,488 MW
1 Nov, 21:0016,523 MW16,675 MW
1 Nov, 22:0015,770 MW15,875 MW
1 Nov, 23:0014,769 MW14,963 MW
2 Nov, 00:0014,089 MW14,400 MW
2 Nov, 01:0013,594 MW14,050 MW
2 Nov, 02:0013,530 MW14,063 MW
2 Nov, 03:0013,530 MW14,300 MW
2 Nov, 04:0013,998 MW14,925 MW
2 Nov, 05:0015,523 MW16,413 MW
2 Nov, 06:0018,629 MW19,575 MW
2 Nov, 07:0020,662 MW21,513 MW
2 Nov, 08:0021,890 MW22,538 MW
2 Nov, 09:0022,383 MW22,738 MW
2 Nov, 10:0022,487 MW22,750 MW
2 Nov, 11:0022,711 MW23,088 MW
2 Nov, 12:0022,831 MW23,350 MW
2 Nov, 13:0022,860 MW23,238 MW
2 Nov, 14:0022,527 MW22,850 MW
2 Nov, 15:0022,366 MW22,838 MW
2 Nov, 16:0022,685 MW23,188 MW
2 Nov, 17:0022,738 MW23,388 MW
2 Nov, 18:0022,607 MW23,288 MW
2 Nov, 19:0022,462 MW23,100 MW
2 Nov, 20:0021,831 MW22,438 MW
2 Nov, 21:0020,255 MW20,938 MW
2 Nov, 22:0018,775 MW19,250 MW
2 Nov, 23:0017,498 MW18,050 MW
3 Nov, 00:0016,741 MW17,188 MW
3 Nov, 01:0016,241 MW16,638 MW
3 Nov, 02:0016,150 MW16,500 MW
3 Nov, 03:0016,194 MW16,588 MW
3 Nov, 04:0016,587 MW17,113 MW
3 Nov, 05:0017,673 MW18,275 MW
3 Nov, 06:0020,281 MW20,738 MW
3 Nov, 07:0021,861 MW22,350 MW
3 Nov, 08:0022,761 MW23,225 MW
3 Nov, 09:0022,991 MW23,275 MW
3 Nov, 10:0022,840 MW23,100 MW
3 Nov, 11:0023,254 MW23,275 MW
3 Nov, 12:0023,685 MW23,463 MW
3 Nov, 13:0023,434 MW23,300 MW
3 Nov, 14:0023,003 MW23,175 MW
3 Nov, 15:0022,974 MW23,275 MW
3 Nov, 16:0023,345 MW23,600 MW
3 Nov, 17:0023,476 MW23,538 MW
3 Nov, 18:0023,380 MW23,200 MW
3 Nov, 19:0023,172 MW23,100 MW
3 Nov, 20:0022,368 MW22,513 MW
3 Nov, 21:0020,787 MW20,975 MW
3 Nov, 22:0019,266 MW19,438 MW
3 Nov, 23:0017,946 MW18,088 MW
4 Nov, 00:0016,955 MW17,350 MW
4 Nov, 01:0016,528 MW16,763 MW
4 Nov, 02:0016,306 MW16,600 MW
4 Nov, 03:0016,334 MW16,625 MW
4 Nov, 04:0016,681 MW17,088 MW
4 Nov, 05:0017,896 MW18,350 MW
4 Nov, 06:0020,330 MW20,838 MW
4 Nov, 07:0022,043 MW22,538 MW
4 Nov, 08:0022,567 MW23,263 MW
4 Nov, 09:0021,877 MW23,200 MW
4 Nov, 10:0022,204 MW23,063 MW
4 Nov, 11:0022,649 MW23,113 MW
4 Nov, 12:0022,741 MW23,300 MW
4 Nov, 13:0022,864 MW23,163 MW
4 Nov, 14:0022,804 MW22,850 MW
4 Nov, 15:0022,844 MW22,850 MW
4 Nov, 16:0023,164 MW23,225 MW
4 Nov, 17:0023,528 MW23,225 MW
4 Nov, 18:0023,330 MW23,100 MW
4 Nov, 19:0023,202 MW22,963 MW
4 Nov, 20:0022,503 MW22,425 MW
4 Nov, 21:0020,981 MW20,788 MW
4 Nov, 22:0019,530 MW19,250 MW
4 Nov, 23:0018,344 MW17,838 MW
5 Nov, 00:0017,554 MW17,225 MW
5 Nov, 01:0017,019 MW16,750 MW
5 Nov, 02:0016,688 MW16,600 MW
5 Nov, 03:0016,773 MW16,625 MW
5 Nov, 04:0017,317 MW17,088 MW
5 Nov, 05:0018,383 MW18,350 MW
5 Nov, 06:0020,962 MW20,838 MW
5 Nov, 07:0022,239 MW22,538 MW
5 Nov, 08:0022,861 MW23,188 MW
5 Nov, 09:0022,491 MW22,950 MW
5 Nov, 10:0021,871 MW22,375 MW
5 Nov, 11:0021,771 MW22,363 MW
5 Nov, 12:0021,800 MW22,550 MW
5 Nov, 13:0022,155 MW22,525 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_pl_2026,
  title = {{Poland Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/pl/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.