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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Madrid).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Spain was off by 1.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Spain came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 319 MW, against average demand of 25,578 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.2%
Bias+0.1%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss2,088 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+2 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,088 MW (8.3%) too high at 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 27,384 MW, reported 25,296 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Spain day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Spain over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:0028,331 MW28,455 MW
29 Oct, 15:0028,650 MW28,453 MW
29 Oct, 16:0029,043 MW28,908 MW
29 Oct, 17:0029,684 MW29,559 MW
29 Oct, 18:0031,193 MW30,742 MW
29 Oct, 19:0032,193 MW31,790 MW
29 Oct, 20:0032,439 MW32,368 MW
29 Oct, 21:0031,308 MW31,132 MW
29 Oct, 22:0028,449 MW28,152 MW
29 Oct, 23:0025,948 MW25,474 MW
30 Oct, 00:0024,396 MW24,144 MW
30 Oct, 01:0023,134 MW22,949 MW
30 Oct, 02:0022,377 MW22,155 MW
30 Oct, 03:0022,102 MW21,832 MW
30 Oct, 04:0022,106 MW21,745 MW
30 Oct, 05:0022,592 MW22,341 MW
30 Oct, 06:0025,114 MW25,057 MW
30 Oct, 07:0028,420 MW28,498 MW
30 Oct, 08:0029,847 MW29,805 MW
30 Oct, 09:0029,837 MW29,726 MW
30 Oct, 10:0029,158 MW28,983 MW
30 Oct, 11:0028,408 MW28,472 MW
30 Oct, 12:0028,621 MW28,486 MW
30 Oct, 13:0028,912 MW28,733 MW
30 Oct, 14:0028,947 MW28,503 MW
30 Oct, 15:0028,711 MW28,224 MW
30 Oct, 16:0028,842 MW28,508 MW
30 Oct, 17:0029,421 MW29,100 MW
30 Oct, 18:0030,582 MW30,310 MW
30 Oct, 19:0031,012 MW31,123 MW
30 Oct, 20:0031,121 MW31,231 MW
30 Oct, 21:0030,066 MW30,176 MW
30 Oct, 22:0027,411 MW27,534 MW
30 Oct, 23:0025,235 MW25,144 MW
31 Oct, 00:0023,642 MW23,788 MW
31 Oct, 01:0022,298 MW22,565 MW
31 Oct, 02:0021,428 MW21,526 MW
31 Oct, 03:0021,030 MW21,017 MW
31 Oct, 04:0020,728 MW20,735 MW
31 Oct, 05:0020,757 MW20,655 MW
31 Oct, 06:0021,508 MW21,418 MW
31 Oct, 07:0022,449 MW22,540 MW
31 Oct, 08:0023,506 MW23,707 MW
31 Oct, 09:0024,677 MW24,939 MW
31 Oct, 10:0024,942 MW25,317 MW
31 Oct, 11:0024,537 MW24,804 MW
31 Oct, 12:0024,420 MW24,624 MW
31 Oct, 13:0024,865 MW24,941 MW
31 Oct, 14:0024,941 MW24,807 MW
31 Oct, 15:0024,586 MW24,155 MW
31 Oct, 16:0024,610 MW24,012 MW
31 Oct, 17:0025,095 MW24,519 MW
31 Oct, 18:0026,100 MW25,809 MW
31 Oct, 19:0026,554 MW26,778 MW
31 Oct, 20:0026,870 MW27,366 MW
31 Oct, 21:0026,377 MW26,887 MW
31 Oct, 22:0024,529 MW24,969 MW
31 Oct, 23:0022,882 MW23,164 MW
1 Nov, 00:0021,401 MW21,432 MW
1 Nov, 01:0020,334 MW20,199 MW
1 Nov, 02:0019,593 MW19,327 MW
1 Nov, 03:0019,019 MW18,889 MW
1 Nov, 04:0018,819 MW18,657 MW
1 Nov, 05:0018,862 MW18,668 MW
1 Nov, 06:0019,353 MW19,140 MW
1 Nov, 07:0019,872 MW19,640 MW
1 Nov, 08:0020,261 MW20,284 MW
1 Nov, 09:0021,115 MW21,393 MW
1 Nov, 10:0021,328 MW21,972 MW
1 Nov, 11:0020,844 MW21,789 MW
1 Nov, 12:0020,666 MW21,719 MW
1 Nov, 13:0021,144 MW22,416 MW
1 Nov, 14:0021,595 MW22,686 MW
1 Nov, 15:0021,303 MW22,078 MW
1 Nov, 16:0021,894 MW22,232 MW
1 Nov, 17:0022,693 MW22,945 MW
1 Nov, 18:0024,301 MW24,658 MW
1 Nov, 19:0025,137 MW25,726 MW
1 Nov, 20:0025,583 MW26,457 MW
1 Nov, 21:0025,167 MW26,220 MW
1 Nov, 22:0023,842 MW24,747 MW
1 Nov, 23:0022,296 MW22,855 MW
2 Nov, 00:0020,936 MW20,911 MW
2 Nov, 01:0019,799 MW19,913 MW
2 Nov, 02:0018,988 MW19,248 MW
2 Nov, 03:0018,608 MW19,001 MW
2 Nov, 04:0018,637 MW18,971 MW
2 Nov, 05:0019,317 MW19,513 MW
2 Nov, 06:0021,577 MW21,803 MW
2 Nov, 07:0023,992 MW24,372 MW
2 Nov, 08:0024,842 MW25,574 MW
2 Nov, 09:0025,487 MW25,992 MW
2 Nov, 10:0025,381 MW25,797 MW
2 Nov, 11:0024,991 MW25,364 MW
2 Nov, 12:0025,009 MW25,314 MW
2 Nov, 13:0025,464 MW25,720 MW
2 Nov, 14:0025,905 MW25,857 MW
2 Nov, 15:0025,933 MW25,651 MW
2 Nov, 16:0026,356 MW25,958 MW
2 Nov, 17:0026,891 MW26,630 MW
2 Nov, 18:0028,108 MW27,876 MW
2 Nov, 19:0029,031 MW28,830 MW
2 Nov, 20:0029,668 MW29,353 MW
2 Nov, 21:0028,709 MW28,604 MW
2 Nov, 22:0026,139 MW26,199 MW
2 Nov, 23:0023,725 MW24,031 MW
3 Nov, 00:0022,265 MW22,533 MW
3 Nov, 01:0021,235 MW21,457 MW
3 Nov, 02:0020,517 MW20,771 MW
3 Nov, 03:0020,248 MW20,535 MW
3 Nov, 04:0020,278 MW20,607 MW
3 Nov, 05:0020,933 MW21,353 MW
3 Nov, 06:0024,075 MW24,187 MW
3 Nov, 07:0027,827 MW27,896 MW
3 Nov, 08:0029,364 MW29,466 MW
3 Nov, 09:0029,276 MW29,556 MW
3 Nov, 10:0028,677 MW29,075 MW
3 Nov, 11:0028,500 MW28,569 MW
3 Nov, 12:0028,726 MW28,594 MW
3 Nov, 13:0029,137 MW28,889 MW
3 Nov, 14:0029,200 MW28,878 MW
3 Nov, 15:0029,091 MW28,928 MW
3 Nov, 16:0029,391 MW29,330 MW
3 Nov, 17:0029,968 MW30,131 MW
3 Nov, 18:0031,091 MW31,350 MW
3 Nov, 19:0032,044 MW32,068 MW
3 Nov, 20:0032,540 MW32,422 MW
3 Nov, 21:0031,293 MW31,221 MW
3 Nov, 22:0028,269 MW28,151 MW
3 Nov, 23:0025,833 MW25,618 MW
4 Nov, 00:0024,112 MW23,648 MW
4 Nov, 01:0022,852 MW22,357 MW
4 Nov, 02:0022,034 MW21,576 MW
4 Nov, 03:0021,703 MW21,218 MW
4 Nov, 04:0021,731 MW21,264 MW
4 Nov, 05:0022,510 MW21,988 MW
4 Nov, 06:0025,367 MW24,940 MW
4 Nov, 07:0029,014 MW28,749 MW
4 Nov, 08:0030,892 MW30,404 MW
4 Nov, 09:0031,243 MW30,401 MW
4 Nov, 10:0030,890 MW29,718 MW
4 Nov, 11:0030,248 MW29,001 MW
4 Nov, 12:0029,966 MW28,936 MW
4 Nov, 13:0030,295 MW29,155 MW
4 Nov, 14:0030,296 MW29,185 MW
4 Nov, 15:0030,250 MW29,200 MW
4 Nov, 16:0030,460 MW29,678 MW
4 Nov, 17:0031,002 MW30,436 MW
4 Nov, 18:0032,475 MW31,858 MW
4 Nov, 19:0033,296 MW32,705 MW
4 Nov, 20:0033,815 MW33,146 MW
4 Nov, 21:0032,746 MW31,935 MW
4 Nov, 22:0029,461 MW28,809 MW
4 Nov, 23:0026,776 MW26,027 MW
5 Nov, 00:0024,910 MW24,681 MW
5 Nov, 01:0023,671 MW23,351 MW
5 Nov, 02:0022,878 MW22,499 MW
5 Nov, 03:0022,592 MW22,143 MW
5 Nov, 04:0022,598 MW22,162 MW
5 Nov, 05:0023,333 MW22,879 MW
5 Nov, 06:0026,213 MW25,824 MW
5 Nov, 07:0030,075 MW29,630 MW
5 Nov, 08:0031,606 MW31,386 MW
5 Nov, 09:0031,692 MW31,536 MW
5 Nov, 10:0030,845 MW30,821 MW
5 Nov, 11:0029,693 MW30,215 MW
5 Nov, 12:0029,419 MW29,818 MW
5 Nov, 13:0029,503 MW30,016 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_es_2026,
  title = {{Spain Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/es/}
}

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