Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sardinia was off by 3.9% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.0%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sardinia came 28 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 29 MW, against average demand of 783 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 56% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error3.9%

Bias+1.0%

Hours within 5%76%

Worst miss213 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 213 MW (39.7%) too high at 25 Oct 2026, 02:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 750 MW, reported 537 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sardinia over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:00	708 MW	723 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	781 MW	768 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	839 MW	830 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	928 MW	913 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	988 MW	980 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	1,002 MW	975 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	979 MW	930 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	917 MW	885 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	856 MW	803 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	773 MW	738 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	724 MW	705 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	690 MW	680 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	677 MW	668 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	670 MW	660 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	679 MW	670 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	705 MW	708 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	788 MW	790 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	857 MW	865 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	861 MW	840 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	790 MW	785 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	745 MW	775 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	729 MW	758 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	694 MW	745 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	680 MW	730 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	679 MW	755 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	712 MW	788 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	819 MW	823 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	920 MW	913 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	979 MW	993 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	1,001 MW	1,008 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	982 MW	958 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	929 MW	888 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	860 MW	828 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	786 MW	758 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	739 MW	743 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	702 MW	718 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	691 MW	700 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	686 MW	695 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	689 MW	700 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	710 MW	728 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	757 MW	793 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	797 MW	830 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	790 MW	825 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	750 MW	795 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	713 MW	740 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	681 MW	715 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	717 MW	720 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	694 MW	715 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	717 MW	723 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	758 MW	768 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	819 MW	815 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	902 MW	903 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	959 MW	963 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	970 MW	975 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	950 MW	938 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	880 MW	875 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	826 MW	833 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	769 MW	778 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	718 MW	725 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	687 MW	708 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	667 MW	680 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	659 MW	673 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	655 MW	673 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	672 MW	688 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	696 MW	728 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	719 MW	735 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	728 MW	733 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	738 MW	750 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	750 MW	760 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	771 MW	753 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	808 MW	758 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	786 MW	768 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	762 MW	760 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	781 MW	773 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	814 MW	795 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	892 MW	858 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	945 MW	925 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	977 MW	923 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	954 MW	925 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	891 MW	883 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	833 MW	825 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	770 MW	753 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	724 MW	698 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	707 MW	658 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	691 MW	643 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	691 MW	640 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	699 MW	653 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	728 MW	685 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	811 MW	783 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	891 MW	868 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	910 MW	888 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	874 MW	840 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	806 MW	800 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	813 MW	770 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	834 MW	758 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	834 MW	758 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	847 MW	770 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	887 MW	813 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	937 MW	878 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	1,001 MW	938 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	1,054 MW	990 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	1,076 MW	1,015 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	1,063 MW	990 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	974 MW	950 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	877 MW	870 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	805 MW	788 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	754 MW	733 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	718 MW	695 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	703 MW	675 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	697 MW	670 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	699 MW	683 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	733 MW	720 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	835 MW	815 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	934 MW	908 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	924 MW	908 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	884 MW	835 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	835 MW	800 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	821 MW	758 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	801 MW	778 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	805 MW	763 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	815 MW	795 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	845 MW	843 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	884 MW	900 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	975 MW	958 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	1,051 MW	1,003 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	1,088 MW	1,018 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	1,063 MW	1,005 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	986 MW	940 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	899 MW	863 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	803 MW	783 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	735 MW	733 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	700 MW	688 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	686 MW	673 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	677 MW	665 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	679 MW	660 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	716 MW	705 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	814 MW	795 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	918 MW	888 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	925 MW	885 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	885 MW	853 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	830 MW	823 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	809 MW	805 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	823 MW	815 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	821 MW	810 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	868 MW	838 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	870 MW	868 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	882 MW	893 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	950 MW	965 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	989 MW	1,010 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	1,017 MW	1,035 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	997 MW	1,005 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	924 MW	943 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	844 MW	870 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	765 MW	788 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	700 MW	768 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	663 MW	735 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	648 MW	720 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	651 MW	710 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	659 MW	708 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	692 MW	740 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	787 MW	845 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	882 MW	948 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	911 MW	948 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	937 MW	948 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	951 MW	913 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	946 MW	908 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	959 MW	885 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	968 MW	885 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sard_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sard/

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Italy Sardinia Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related