Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 143 MW (14.3%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 15:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 3.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 78% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +1.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 143 MW (14.3%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 15:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Kosovo came 25 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 25 MW, against average demand of 746 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 59% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026Average error3.4%
Bias+1.1%
Hours within 5%78%
Worst miss143 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 143 MW (14.3%) too low at 27 Oct 2026, 15:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 853 MW, reported 996 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct, 13:00 | 872 MW | 929 MW |
| 29 Oct, 14:00 | 902 MW | 944 MW |
| 29 Oct, 15:00 | 951 MW | 988 MW |
| 29 Oct, 16:00 | 1,023 MW | 1,041 MW |
| 29 Oct, 17:00 | 1,035 MW | 1,081 MW |
| 29 Oct, 18:00 | 1,004 MW | 1,046 MW |
| 29 Oct, 19:00 | 968 MW | 1,009 MW |
| 29 Oct, 20:00 | 938 MW | 980 MW |
| 29 Oct, 21:00 | 930 MW | 955 MW |
| 29 Oct, 22:00 | 930 MW | 950 MW |
| 29 Oct, 23:00 | 866 MW | 885 MW |
| 30 Oct, 00:00 | 739 MW | 741 MW |
| 30 Oct, 01:00 | 621 MW | 623 MW |
| 30 Oct, 02:00 | 553 MW | 557 MW |
| 30 Oct, 03:00 | 525 MW | 524 MW |
| 30 Oct, 04:00 | 520 MW | 520 MW |
| 30 Oct, 05:00 | 560 MW | 556 MW |
| 30 Oct, 06:00 | 606 MW | 619 MW |
| 30 Oct, 07:00 | 720 MW | 734 MW |
| 30 Oct, 08:00 | 863 MW | 859 MW |
| 30 Oct, 09:00 | 941 MW | 927 MW |
| 30 Oct, 10:00 | 962 MW | 945 MW |
| 30 Oct, 11:00 | 970 MW | 931 MW |
| 30 Oct, 12:00 | 942 MW | 914 MW |
| 30 Oct, 13:00 | 929 MW | 905 MW |
| 30 Oct, 14:00 | 943 MW | 935 MW |
| 30 Oct, 15:00 | 974 MW | 976 MW |
| 30 Oct, 16:00 | 1,035 MW | 1,027 MW |
| 30 Oct, 17:00 | 1,043 MW | 1,056 MW |
| 30 Oct, 18:00 | 1,006 MW | 1,019 MW |
| 30 Oct, 19:00 | 959 MW | 973 MW |
| 30 Oct, 20:00 | 930 MW | 946 MW |
| 30 Oct, 21:00 | 905 MW | 924 MW |
| 30 Oct, 22:00 | 898 MW | 924 MW |
| 30 Oct, 23:00 | 861 MW | 876 MW |
| 31 Oct, 00:00 | 769 MW | 745 MW |
| 31 Oct, 01:00 | 658 MW | 632 MW |
| 31 Oct, 02:00 | 578 MW | 566 MW |
| 31 Oct, 03:00 | 539 MW | 534 MW |
| 31 Oct, 04:00 | 528 MW | 525 MW |
| 31 Oct, 05:00 | 554 MW | 551 MW |
| 31 Oct, 06:00 | 568 MW | 586 MW |
| 31 Oct, 07:00 | 646 MW | 664 MW |
| 31 Oct, 08:00 | 776 MW | 792 MW |
| 31 Oct, 09:00 | 891 MW | 880 MW |
| 31 Oct, 10:00 | 947 MW | 915 MW |
| 31 Oct, 11:00 | 952 MW | 905 MW |
| 31 Oct, 12:00 | 938 MW | 889 MW |
| 31 Oct, 13:00 | 918 MW | 883 MW |
| 31 Oct, 14:00 | 930 MW | 890 MW |
| 31 Oct, 15:00 | 943 MW | 918 MW |
| 31 Oct, 16:00 | 1,009 MW | 982 MW |
| 31 Oct, 17:00 | 1,033 MW | 1,030 MW |
| 31 Oct, 18:00 | 991 MW | 982 MW |
| 31 Oct, 19:00 | 958 MW | 946 MW |
| 31 Oct, 20:00 | 930 MW | 918 MW |
| 31 Oct, 21:00 | 916 MW | 906 MW |
| 31 Oct, 22:00 | 920 MW | 914 MW |
| 31 Oct, 23:00 | 881 MW | 879 MW |
| 1 Nov, 00:00 | 779 MW | 790 MW |
| 1 Nov, 01:00 | 671 MW | 682 MW |
| 1 Nov, 02:00 | 604 MW | 601 MW |
| 1 Nov, 03:00 | 566 MW | 563 MW |
| 1 Nov, 04:00 | 550 MW | 550 MW |
| 1 Nov, 05:00 | 566 MW | 567 MW |
| 1 Nov, 06:00 | 574 MW | 586 MW |
| 1 Nov, 07:00 | 625 MW | 649 MW |
| 1 Nov, 08:00 | 721 MW | 764 MW |
| 1 Nov, 09:00 | 833 MW | 861 MW |
| 1 Nov, 10:00 | 906 MW | 908 MW |
| 1 Nov, 11:00 | 935 MW | 929 MW |
| 1 Nov, 12:00 | 940 MW | 918 MW |
| 1 Nov, 13:00 | 918 MW | 896 MW |
| 1 Nov, 14:00 | 910 MW | 889 MW |
| 1 Nov, 15:00 | 931 MW | 929 MW |
| 1 Nov, 16:00 | 998 MW | 988 MW |
| 1 Nov, 17:00 | 1,039 MW | 1,058 MW |
| 1 Nov, 18:00 | 1,017 MW | 1,040 MW |
| 1 Nov, 19:00 | 996 MW | 1,024 MW |
| 1 Nov, 20:00 | 993 MW | 1,010 MW |
| 1 Nov, 21:00 | 993 MW | 999 MW |
| 1 Nov, 22:00 | 999 MW | 988 MW |
| 1 Nov, 23:00 | 930 MW | 918 MW |
| 2 Nov, 00:00 | 792 MW | 801 MW |
| 2 Nov, 01:00 | 664 MW | 680 MW |
| 2 Nov, 02:00 | 589 MW | 598 MW |
| 2 Nov, 03:00 | 552 MW | 563 MW |
| 2 Nov, 04:00 | 543 MW | 555 MW |
| 2 Nov, 05:00 | 585 MW | 587 MW |
| 2 Nov, 06:00 | 655 MW | 653 MW |
| 2 Nov, 07:00 | 783 MW | 759 MW |
| 2 Nov, 08:00 | 899 MW | 878 MW |
| 2 Nov, 09:00 | 982 MW | 963 MW |
| 2 Nov, 10:00 | 999 MW | 982 MW |
| 2 Nov, 11:00 | 998 MW | 982 MW |
| 2 Nov, 12:00 | 977 MW | 968 MW |
| 2 Nov, 13:00 | 984 MW | 963 MW |
| 2 Nov, 14:00 | 984 MW | 963 MW |
| 2 Nov, 15:00 | 1,013 MW | 998 MW |
| 2 Nov, 16:00 | 1,086 MW | 1,062 MW |
| 2 Nov, 17:00 | 1,095 MW | 1,090 MW |
| 2 Nov, 18:00 | 1,059 MW | 1,044 MW |
| 2 Nov, 19:00 | 1,024 MW | 1,007 MW |
| 2 Nov, 20:00 | 995 MW | 978 MW |
| 2 Nov, 21:00 | 983 MW | 968 MW |
| 2 Nov, 22:00 | 983 MW | 967 MW |
| 2 Nov, 23:00 | 928 MW | 921 MW |
| 3 Nov, 00:00 | 799 MW | 817 MW |
| 3 Nov, 01:00 | 674 MW | 688 MW |
| 3 Nov, 02:00 | 589 MW | 612 MW |
| 3 Nov, 03:00 | 551 MW | 575 MW |
| 3 Nov, 04:00 | 528 MW | 563 MW |
| 3 Nov, 05:00 | 566 MW | 601 MW |
| 3 Nov, 06:00 | 640 MW | 667 MW |
| 3 Nov, 07:00 | 771 MW | 772 MW |
| 3 Nov, 08:00 | 897 MW | 889 MW |
| 3 Nov, 09:00 | 989 MW | 976 MW |
| 3 Nov, 10:00 | 1,028 MW | 1,010 MW |
| 3 Nov, 11:00 | 1,030 MW | 1,018 MW |
| 3 Nov, 12:00 | 1,014 MW | 1,009 MW |
| 3 Nov, 13:00 | 1,008 MW | 1,002 MW |
| 3 Nov, 14:00 | 1,012 MW | 1,004 MW |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 | 1,021 MW | 1,047 MW |
| 3 Nov, 16:00 | 1,099 MW | 1,102 MW |
| 3 Nov, 17:00 | 1,126 MW | 1,127 MW |
| 3 Nov, 18:00 | 1,088 MW | 1,076 MW |
| 3 Nov, 19:00 | 1,052 MW | 1,033 MW |
| 3 Nov, 20:00 | 1,024 MW | 1,006 MW |
| 3 Nov, 21:00 | 1,019 MW | 1,001 MW |
| 3 Nov, 22:00 | 1,026 MW | 1,017 MW |
| 3 Nov, 23:00 | 961 MW | 959 MW |
| 4 Nov, 00:00 | 820 MW | 838 MW |
| 4 Nov, 01:00 | 692 MW | 708 MW |
| 4 Nov, 02:00 | 616 MW | 627 MW |
| 4 Nov, 03:00 | 580 MW | 584 MW |
| 4 Nov, 04:00 | 569 MW | 568 MW |
| 4 Nov, 05:00 | 606 MW | 606 MW |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 | 669 MW | 679 MW |
| 4 Nov, 07:00 | 792 MW | 802 MW |
| 4 Nov, 08:00 | 899 MW | 919 MW |
| 4 Nov, 09:00 | 973 MW | 999 MW |
| 4 Nov, 10:00 | 999 MW | 1,023 MW |
| 4 Nov, 11:00 | 984 MW | 1,028 MW |
| 4 Nov, 12:00 | 962 MW | 1,012 MW |
| 4 Nov, 13:00 | 982 MW | 1,005 MW |
| 4 Nov, 14:00 | 999 MW | 1,002 MW |
| 4 Nov, 15:00 | 1,028 MW | 1,034 MW |
| 4 Nov, 16:00 | 1,105 MW | 1,084 MW |
| 4 Nov, 17:00 | 1,129 MW | 1,103 MW |
| 4 Nov, 18:00 | 1,096 MW | 1,072 MW |
| 4 Nov, 19:00 | 1,057 MW | 1,040 MW |
| 4 Nov, 20:00 | 1,028 MW | 986 MW |
| 4 Nov, 21:00 | 1,013 MW | 1,013 MW |
| 4 Nov, 22:00 | 1,028 MW | 1,002 MW |
| 4 Nov, 23:00 | 966 MW | 976 MW |
| 5 Nov, 00:00 | 828 MW | 841 MW |
| 5 Nov, 01:00 | 693 MW | 710 MW |
| 5 Nov, 02:00 | 611 MW | 631 MW |
| 5 Nov, 03:00 | 577 MW | 600 MW |
| 5 Nov, 04:00 | 566 MW | 589 MW |
| 5 Nov, 05:00 | 605 MW | 624 MW |
| 5 Nov, 06:00 | 667 MW | 683 MW |
| 5 Nov, 07:00 | 795 MW | 804 MW |
| 5 Nov, 08:00 | 905 MW | 924 MW |
| 5 Nov, 09:00 | 954 MW | 1,009 MW |
| 5 Nov, 10:00 | 963 MW | 1,042 MW |
| 5 Nov, 11:00 | 937 MW | 1,045 MW |
| 5 Nov, 12:00 | 918 MW | 1,027 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Related
Cite this page
APA 7
World Power Monitor. (2026). Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/
Plain text
World Power Monitor. Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/
BibTeX
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_xk_2026,
title = {{Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
author = {{World Power Monitor}},
year = {2026},
note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/}
} Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/xk/
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