Kosovo Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 247 MW (68.5%) too high at 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Kosovo was off by 4.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 67% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +4.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 247 MW (68.5%) too high at 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Kosovo came 31 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 28 MW, against average demand of 590 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 85% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026Average error4.7%
Bias+4.1%
Hours within 5%67%
Worst miss247 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+24 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 247 MW (68.5%) too high at 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 606 MW, reported 360 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)Data to 2026-09-20
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 14:00 | 530 MW | 583 MW |
| 13 Sept, 15:00 | 540 MW | 600 MW |
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 572 MW | 621 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 595 MW | 633 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 609 MW | 639 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 668 MW | 670 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 662 MW | 670 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 645 MW | 657 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 621 MW | 637 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 576 MW | 595 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 479 MW | 494 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 401 MW | 419 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 359 MW | 377 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 347 MW | 359 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 347 MW | 355 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 374 MW | 384 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 417 MW | 426 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 516 MW | 515 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 583 MW | 612 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 608 MW | 679 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 615 MW | 698 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 587 MW | 686 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 563 MW | 660 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 568 MW | 662 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 576 MW | 669 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 604 MW | 682 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 653 MW | 696 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 658 MW | 687 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 667 MW | 677 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 702 MW | 680 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 671 MW | 662 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 647 MW | 650 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 619 MW | 635 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 573 MW | 592 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 479 MW | 497 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 401 MW | 417 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 363 MW | 379 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 356 MW | 360 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 355 MW | 357 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 378 MW | 379 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 424 MW | 431 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 523 MW | 538 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 613 MW | 614 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 669 MW | 662 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 663 MW | 669 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 637 MW | 672 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 602 MW | 661 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 604 MW | 661 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 618 MW | 668 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 633 MW | 695 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 655 MW | 703 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 657 MW | 703 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 671 MW | 695 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 704 MW | 699 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 666 MW | 672 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 645 MW | 649 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 624 MW | 632 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 554 MW | 593 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 488 MW | 499 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 411 MW | 422 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 367 MW | 380 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 354 MW | 365 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 353 MW | 363 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 380 MW | 380 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 423 MW | 427 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 519 MW | 533 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 596 MW | 623 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 638 MW | 661 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 630 MW | 680 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 589 MW | 662 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 575 MW | 635 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 589 MW | 641 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 596 MW | 647 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 620 MW | 665 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 654 MW | 685 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 660 MW | 685 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 662 MW | 685 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 699 MW | 704 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 675 MW | 679 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 649 MW | 666 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 602 MW | 635 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 555 MW | 591 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 477 MW | 495 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 398 MW | 418 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 362 MW | 376 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 351 MW | 362 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 350 MW | 359 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 375 MW | 384 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 423 MW | 434 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 522 MW | 547 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 596 MW | 633 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 632 MW | 691 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 622 MW | 690 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 608 MW | 667 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 581 MW | 644 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 592 MW | 652 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 598 MW | 666 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 629 MW | 687 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 670 MW | 702 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 674 MW | 702 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 681 MW | 704 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 713 MW | 735 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 680 MW | 702 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 657 MW | 674 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 627 MW | 654 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 578 MW | 608 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 486 MW | 493 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 411 MW | 423 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 371 MW | 383 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 358 MW | 369 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 357 MW | 369 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 385 MW | 392 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 433 MW | 437 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 533 MW | 556 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 598 MW | 648 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 636 MW | 691 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 639 MW | 701 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 623 MW | 677 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 601 MW | 652 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 595 MW | 657 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | 616 MW | 666 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 643 MW | 687 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 676 MW | 713 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 677 MW | 695 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 683 MW | 700 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 700 MW | 713 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 666 MW | 686 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 623 MW | 653 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 597 MW | 633 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 551 MW | 593 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 493 MW | 499 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 419 MW | 423 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 388 MW | 382 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 371 MW | 369 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 361 MW | 368 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 383 MW | 387 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 400 MW | 403 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 459 MW | 477 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 557 MW | 595 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 630 MW | 674 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 639 MW | 697 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 617 MW | 675 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 599 MW | 647 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 601 MW | 650 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 608 MW | 647 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 631 MW | 666 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 657 MW | 678 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 663 MW | 666 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 672 MW | 670 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 690 MW | 688 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 646 MW | 655 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 615 MW | 627 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 587 MW | 609 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 557 MW | 574 MW |
| 20 Sept, 00:00 | 484 MW | 498 MW |
| 20 Sept, 01:00 | 414 MW | 427 MW |
| 20 Sept, 02:00 | 375 MW | 385 MW |
| 20 Sept, 03:00 | 356 MW | 369 MW |
| 20 Sept, 04:00 | 353 MW | 365 MW |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 | 366 MW | 377 MW |
| 20 Sept, 06:00 | 370 MW | 389 MW |
| 20 Sept, 07:00 | 410 MW | 441 MW |
| 20 Sept, 08:00 | 488 MW | 524 MW |
| 20 Sept, 09:00 | 549 MW | 605 MW |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 | 423 MW | 638 MW |
| 20 Sept, 11:00 | 420 MW | 638 MW |
| 20 Sept, 12:00 | 401 MW | 625 MW |
| 20 Sept, 13:00 | 360 MW | 606 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.