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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Rome).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Italy Sicily was off by 3.5% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 76% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +0.5%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Italy Sicily came 27 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 60 MW, against average demand of 1,703 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 54% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.5%
Bias+0.5%
Hours within 5%76%
Worst miss279 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+5 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 279 MW (19.3%) too high at 28 Oct 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 1,725 MW, reported 1,447 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Italy Sicily day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 625 1,250 1,875 2,500 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Italy Sicily over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:001,604 MW1,753 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,730 MW1,833 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,833 MW1,883 MW
29 Oct, 17:002,021 MW2,025 MW
29 Oct, 18:002,096 MW2,130 MW
29 Oct, 19:002,142 MW2,093 MW
29 Oct, 20:002,071 MW2,008 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,911 MW1,868 MW
29 Oct, 22:001,756 MW1,760 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,608 MW1,573 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,468 MW1,438 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,379 MW1,353 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,328 MW1,305 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,318 MW1,280 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,336 MW1,288 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,421 MW1,383 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,580 MW1,510 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,774 MW1,738 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,830 MW1,760 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,878 MW1,715 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,839 MW1,690 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,825 MW1,640 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,796 MW1,625 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,752 MW1,620 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,797 MW1,700 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,859 MW1,855 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,900 MW1,910 MW
30 Oct, 17:002,104 MW2,065 MW
30 Oct, 18:002,161 MW2,150 MW
30 Oct, 19:002,202 MW2,185 MW
30 Oct, 20:002,122 MW2,108 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,951 MW2,003 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,785 MW1,890 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,643 MW1,693 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,509 MW1,468 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,414 MW1,358 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,359 MW1,310 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,333 MW1,290 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,338 MW1,303 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,401 MW1,378 MW
31 Oct, 06:001,483 MW1,490 MW
31 Oct, 07:001,600 MW1,615 MW
31 Oct, 08:001,734 MW1,780 MW
31 Oct, 09:001,787 MW1,738 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,750 MW1,625 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,707 MW1,678 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,725 MW1,730 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,863 MW1,725 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,792 MW1,738 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,757 MW1,775 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,850 MW1,848 MW
31 Oct, 17:002,034 MW1,975 MW
31 Oct, 18:002,084 MW2,053 MW
31 Oct, 19:002,119 MW2,043 MW
31 Oct, 20:002,031 MW1,960 MW
31 Oct, 21:001,858 MW1,808 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,720 MW1,695 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,605 MW1,580 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,480 MW1,418 MW
1 Nov, 01:001,384 MW1,318 MW
1 Nov, 02:001,310 MW1,285 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,240 MW1,295 MW
1 Nov, 04:001,243 MW1,238 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,279 MW1,260 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,292 MW1,300 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,357 MW1,393 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,479 MW1,600 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,556 MW1,705 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,633 MW1,628 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,811 MW1,748 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,840 MW1,753 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,710 MW1,620 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,613 MW1,563 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,646 MW1,603 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,705 MW1,603 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,895 MW1,755 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,957 MW1,865 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,999 MW1,890 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,958 MW1,848 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,837 MW1,723 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,730 MW1,623 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,581 MW1,505 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,354 MW1,350 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,261 MW1,243 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,208 MW1,213 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,188 MW1,218 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,255 MW1,225 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,324 MW1,288 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,444 MW1,468 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,613 MW1,738 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,758 MW1,878 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,891 MW1,868 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,841 MW1,780 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,882 MW1,743 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,932 MW1,740 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,922 MW1,763 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,910 MW1,840 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,909 MW1,930 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,989 MW1,950 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,145 MW2,130 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,204 MW2,185 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,263 MW2,248 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,204 MW2,173 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,034 MW2,015 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,832 MW1,823 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,654 MW1,625 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,487 MW1,468 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,393 MW1,378 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,342 MW1,328 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,310 MW1,313 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,326 MW1,325 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,374 MW1,398 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,532 MW1,553 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,798 MW1,790 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,893 MW1,925 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,902 MW1,878 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,996 MW1,803 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,918 MW1,753 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,945 MW1,768 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,964 MW1,853 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,985 MW1,865 MW
3 Nov, 15:002,083 MW1,875 MW
3 Nov, 16:002,100 MW1,943 MW
3 Nov, 17:002,275 MW2,103 MW
3 Nov, 18:002,321 MW2,165 MW
3 Nov, 19:002,393 MW2,205 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,314 MW2,125 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,139 MW1,968 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,978 MW1,805 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,763 MW1,613 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,491 MW1,483 MW
4 Nov, 01:001,387 MW1,363 MW
4 Nov, 02:001,337 MW1,310 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,315 MW1,290 MW
4 Nov, 04:001,327 MW1,298 MW
4 Nov, 05:001,412 MW1,383 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,569 MW1,533 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,845 MW1,795 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,966 MW1,855 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,004 MW1,785 MW
4 Nov, 10:001,939 MW1,728 MW
4 Nov, 11:001,924 MW1,803 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,886 MW1,825 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,829 MW1,800 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,861 MW1,818 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,883 MW1,895 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,971 MW1,968 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,145 MW2,138 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,192 MW2,198 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,230 MW2,238 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,181 MW2,168 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,020 MW2,020 MW
4 Nov, 22:001,849 MW1,878 MW
4 Nov, 23:001,624 MW1,673 MW
5 Nov, 00:001,450 MW1,498 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,360 MW1,385 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,299 MW1,340 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,294 MW1,325 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,278 MW1,320 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,377 MW1,358 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,541 MW1,528 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,789 MW1,815 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,945 MW1,948 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,981 MW1,983 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,971 MW2,043 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,985 MW1,965 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,969 MW1,983 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,991 MW1,985 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_it_sici_2026,
  title = {{Italy Sicily Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/it-sici/}
}

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