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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 9.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 524 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,134 MW (128.9%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Dates and times are local (America/Los_Angeles).

This grid has 524 compared hours out of the 720 in its 30 day window, because the forecast or the demand reading is missing for the rest. Treat the figures as a shorter sample.

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LDWP was off by 9.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 524 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 27% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -8.3%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 1,134 MW (128.9%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LDWP came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 274 MW, against average demand of 3,097 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 6% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

524 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error9.2%
Bias-8.3%
Hours within 5%27%
Worst miss1,134 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-259 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 1,134 MW (128.9%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00): forecast 2,014 MW, reported 880 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00)
LDWP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 06:0030 Oct, 06:0031 Oct, 06:001 Nov, 05:002 Nov, 05:003 Nov, 05:004 Nov, 05:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LDWP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 04:00 PST (UTC-08:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 06:002,533 MWn/a
29 Oct, 07:002,652 MWn/a
29 Oct, 08:002,704 MWn/a
29 Oct, 09:003,006 MWn/a
29 Oct, 10:003,092 MWn/a
29 Oct, 11:003,177 MWn/a
29 Oct, 12:003,225 MWn/a
29 Oct, 13:003,285 MWn/a
29 Oct, 14:003,312 MWn/a
29 Oct, 15:003,336 MWn/a
29 Oct, 16:003,401 MWn/a
29 Oct, 17:003,153 MWn/a
29 Oct, 18:003,176 MWn/a
29 Oct, 19:003,152 MWn/a
29 Oct, 20:003,190 MWn/a
29 Oct, 21:003,103 MWn/a
29 Oct, 22:002,953 MWn/a
29 Oct, 23:002,745 MWn/a
30 Oct, 00:002,555 MWn/a
30 Oct, 01:002,377 MWn/a
30 Oct, 02:002,276 MWn/a
30 Oct, 03:002,240 MWn/a
30 Oct, 04:002,230 MWn/a
30 Oct, 05:002,316 MWn/a
30 Oct, 06:002,548 MWn/a
30 Oct, 07:002,671 MWn/a
30 Oct, 08:002,740 MWn/a
30 Oct, 09:002,899 MWn/a
30 Oct, 10:003,239 MWn/a
30 Oct, 11:003,268 MWn/a
30 Oct, 12:003,215 MWn/a
30 Oct, 13:003,132 MWn/a
30 Oct, 14:003,088 MWn/a
30 Oct, 15:003,135 MWn/a
30 Oct, 16:003,169 MWn/a
30 Oct, 17:002,976 MWn/a
30 Oct, 18:003,005 MWn/a
30 Oct, 19:002,967 MWn/a
30 Oct, 20:002,895 MWn/a
30 Oct, 21:002,826 MWn/a
30 Oct, 22:002,680 MWn/a
30 Oct, 23:002,545 MWn/a
31 Oct, 00:002,405 MWn/a
31 Oct, 01:002,304 MWn/a
31 Oct, 02:002,252 MWn/a
31 Oct, 03:002,202 MWn/a
31 Oct, 04:002,169 MWn/a
31 Oct, 05:002,209 MWn/a
31 Oct, 06:002,323 MWn/a
31 Oct, 07:002,378 MWn/a
31 Oct, 08:002,460 MWn/a
31 Oct, 09:002,796 MWn/a
31 Oct, 10:002,842 MWn/a
31 Oct, 11:002,923 MWn/a
31 Oct, 12:002,903 MWn/a
31 Oct, 13:002,906 MWn/a
31 Oct, 14:002,916 MWn/a
31 Oct, 15:002,926 MWn/a
31 Oct, 16:002,713 MWn/a
31 Oct, 17:002,733 MWn/a
31 Oct, 18:002,769 MWn/a
31 Oct, 19:002,745 MWn/a
31 Oct, 20:002,716 MWn/a
31 Oct, 21:002,657 MWn/a
31 Oct, 22:002,501 MWn/a
31 Oct, 23:002,379 MWn/a
1 Nov, 00:002,363 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:002,286 MWn/a
1 Nov, 01:002,227 MWn/a
1 Nov, 02:002,175 MWn/a
1 Nov, 03:002,144 MWn/a
1 Nov, 04:002,141 MWn/a
1 Nov, 05:002,184 MWn/a
1 Nov, 06:002,187 MWn/a
1 Nov, 07:002,242 MWn/a
1 Nov, 08:002,554 MWn/a
1 Nov, 09:002,673 MWn/a
1 Nov, 10:002,676 MWn/a
1 Nov, 11:002,655 MWn/a
1 Nov, 12:002,590 MWn/a
1 Nov, 13:002,654 MWn/a
1 Nov, 14:002,747 MWn/a
1 Nov, 15:002,890 MWn/a
1 Nov, 16:002,833 MWn/a
1 Nov, 17:003,022 MWn/a
1 Nov, 18:003,054 MWn/a
1 Nov, 19:003,027 MWn/a
1 Nov, 20:002,930 MWn/a
1 Nov, 21:002,829 MWn/a
1 Nov, 22:002,682 MWn/a
1 Nov, 23:002,554 MWn/a
2 Nov, 00:002,497 MWn/a
2 Nov, 01:002,370 MWn/a
2 Nov, 02:002,338 MWn/a
2 Nov, 03:002,336 MWn/a
2 Nov, 04:002,383 MWn/a
2 Nov, 05:002,514 MWn/a
2 Nov, 06:002,691 MWn/a
2 Nov, 07:002,791 MWn/a
2 Nov, 08:002,843 MWn/a
2 Nov, 09:003,100 MWn/a
2 Nov, 10:003,131 MWn/a
2 Nov, 11:003,178 MWn/a
2 Nov, 12:003,228 MWn/a
2 Nov, 13:003,342 MWn/a
2 Nov, 14:003,457 MWn/a
2 Nov, 15:003,282 MWn/a
2 Nov, 16:003,310 MWn/a
2 Nov, 17:003,384 MWn/a
2 Nov, 18:003,337 MWn/a
2 Nov, 19:003,268 MWn/a
2 Nov, 20:003,173 MWn/a
2 Nov, 21:003,052 MWn/a
2 Nov, 22:002,881 MWn/a
2 Nov, 23:002,714 MWn/a
3 Nov, 00:002,566 MW2,175 MW
3 Nov, 01:002,464 MW2,089 MW
3 Nov, 02:002,388 MW2,017 MW
3 Nov, 03:002,341 MW1,991 MW
3 Nov, 04:002,369 MW2,014 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,479 MW2,121 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,617 MW2,280 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,650 MW2,378 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,693 MW2,436 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,931 MW2,475 MW
3 Nov, 10:002,940 MW2,486 MW
3 Nov, 11:002,990 MW2,520 MW
3 Nov, 12:003,030 MW2,580 MW
3 Nov, 13:003,131 MW2,653 MW
3 Nov, 14:002,997 MW2,737 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,085 MW2,803 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,125 MW2,839 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,210 MW2,923 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,150 MW2,886 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,084 MW2,833 MW
3 Nov, 20:002,975 MW2,761 MW
3 Nov, 21:002,854 MW2,648 MW
3 Nov, 22:002,697 MW2,495 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,546 MW2,351 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,089 MW2,200 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,015 MW2,090 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,087 MW2,016 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,150 MW1,989 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,160 MW2,003 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,284 MW2,110 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,460 MW2,260 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,564 MW2,349 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,624 MW2,386 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,641 MW2,427 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,684 MW2,450 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,706 MW2,459 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,732 MW2,507 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,857 MW2,568 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,958 MW2,675 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,800 MW2,777 MW
4 Nov, 16:002,843 MW2,818 MW
4 Nov, 17:002,875 MW2,900 MW
4 Nov, 18:002,823 MW2,854 MW
4 Nov, 19:002,758 MW2,797 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,673 MW2,745 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,576 MW2,651 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,358 MW2,497 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,196 MW2,348 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,075 MW2,215 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,958 MW2,104 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,882 MW2,029 MW
5 Nov, 03:00n/a2,003 MW
5 Nov, 04:00880 MW2,014 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (524 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_ldwp_2026,
  title = {{LDWP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/ldwp/}
}

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