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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for SRP was off by 30.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 20% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +29.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Dates and times are local (America/Phoenix).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for SRP was off by 30.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 20% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +29.5%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, SRP came 50 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 762 MW, against average demand of 3,238 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 91% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error30.0%
Bias+29.5%
Hours within 5%20%
Worst miss2,095 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+742 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 2,095 MW (104.0%) too high at 27 Oct 2026, 13:00 MST (UTC-07:00): forecast 4,109 MW, reported 2,014 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00)
SRP day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SRP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 29 Oct, 07:0030 Oct, 07:0031 Oct, 07:001 Nov, 07:002 Nov, 07:003 Nov, 07:004 Nov, 07:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for SRP over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 06:00 MST (UTC-07:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 07:003,104 MW3,428 MW
29 Oct, 08:003,234 MW3,396 MW
29 Oct, 09:003,305 MW3,429 MW
29 Oct, 10:003,323 MW3,523 MW
29 Oct, 11:003,532 MW3,693 MW
29 Oct, 12:003,627 MW3,930 MW
29 Oct, 13:003,630 MW4,199 MW
29 Oct, 14:003,676 MW4,406 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,667 MW4,550 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,398 MW4,630 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,314 MW4,572 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,595 MW4,489 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,576 MW4,329 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,413 MW4,224 MW
29 Oct, 21:002,804 MW4,034 MW
29 Oct, 22:002,617 MW3,791 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,962 MW3,578 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,306 MW3,470 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,765 MW3,340 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,018 MW3,245 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,012 MW3,211 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,058 MW3,189 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,332 MW3,306 MW
30 Oct, 06:003,581 MW3,459 MW
30 Oct, 07:003,672 MW3,508 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,713 MW3,561 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,736 MW3,661 MW
30 Oct, 10:003,640 MW3,739 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,711 MW3,802 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,827 MW3,905 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,676 MW4,049 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,519 MW4,090 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,465 MW4,059 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,628 MW4,118 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,728 MW4,058 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,666 MW3,972 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,615 MW3,828 MW
30 Oct, 20:003,699 MW3,784 MW
30 Oct, 21:003,624 MW3,701 MW
30 Oct, 22:003,598 MW3,571 MW
30 Oct, 23:003,196 MW3,432 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,093 MW3,361 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,567 MW3,342 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,132 MW3,171 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,980 MW3,167 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,910 MW3,158 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,961 MW3,195 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,016 MW3,289 MW
31 Oct, 07:002,133 MW3,363 MW
31 Oct, 08:002,356 MW3,465 MW
31 Oct, 09:002,439 MW3,543 MW
31 Oct, 10:002,583 MW3,591 MW
31 Oct, 11:002,590 MW3,668 MW
31 Oct, 12:002,890 MW3,834 MW
31 Oct, 13:003,095 MW3,945 MW
31 Oct, 14:003,380 MW4,047 MW
31 Oct, 15:003,541 MW4,081 MW
31 Oct, 16:003,676 MW4,124 MW
31 Oct, 17:003,673 MW4,016 MW
31 Oct, 18:003,749 MW3,974 MW
31 Oct, 19:003,717 MW3,866 MW
31 Oct, 20:003,753 MW3,803 MW
31 Oct, 21:003,572 MW3,727 MW
31 Oct, 22:003,262 MW3,589 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,914 MW3,399 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,877 MW3,390 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,732 MW3,306 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,769 MW3,336 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,660 MW3,345 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,578 MW3,334 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,463 MW3,350 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,302 MW3,356 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,198 MW3,277 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,361 MW3,332 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,278 MW3,528 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,133 MW3,683 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,013 MW3,808 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,965 MW3,884 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,892 MW3,918 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,927 MW3,912 MW
1 Nov, 15:002,053 MW3,943 MW
1 Nov, 16:002,171 MW3,979 MW
1 Nov, 17:002,312 MW4,039 MW
1 Nov, 18:002,335 MW4,140 MW
1 Nov, 19:002,304 MW4,063 MW
1 Nov, 20:002,182 MW3,954 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,998 MW3,812 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,742 MW3,628 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,608 MW3,427 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,528 MW3,242 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,409 MW3,232 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,301 MW3,174 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,292 MW3,086 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,288 MW3,222 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,389 MW3,372 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,601 MW3,559 MW
2 Nov, 07:002,237 MW3,598 MW
2 Nov, 08:002,121 MW3,495 MW
2 Nov, 09:002,075 MW3,473 MW
2 Nov, 10:002,040 MW3,467 MW
2 Nov, 11:002,042 MW3,497 MW
2 Nov, 12:002,098 MW3,533 MW
2 Nov, 13:002,181 MW3,591 MW
2 Nov, 14:002,276 MW3,654 MW
2 Nov, 15:002,389 MW3,808 MW
2 Nov, 16:002,575 MW3,896 MW
2 Nov, 17:002,771 MW4,064 MW
2 Nov, 18:002,813 MW4,159 MW
2 Nov, 19:002,725 MW4,083 MW
2 Nov, 20:002,633 MW3,986 MW
2 Nov, 21:002,502 MW3,854 MW
2 Nov, 22:002,301 MW3,637 MW
2 Nov, 23:002,118 MW3,424 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,937 MW3,238 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,816 MW3,127 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,765 MW3,058 MW
3 Nov, 03:001,754 MW3,054 MW
3 Nov, 04:001,867 MW3,113 MW
3 Nov, 05:002,009 MW3,276 MW
3 Nov, 06:002,061 MW3,503 MW
3 Nov, 07:002,308 MW3,555 MW
3 Nov, 08:002,665 MW3,446 MW
3 Nov, 09:002,988 MW3,399 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,208 MW3,377 MW
3 Nov, 11:003,292 MW3,384 MW
3 Nov, 12:003,351 MW3,418 MW
3 Nov, 13:003,421 MW3,498 MW
3 Nov, 14:003,498 MW3,577 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,604 MW3,688 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,729 MW3,842 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,856 MW3,993 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,985 MW4,065 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,902 MW4,009 MW
3 Nov, 20:003,671 MW3,924 MW
3 Nov, 21:003,568 MW3,795 MW
3 Nov, 22:003,238 MW3,578 MW
3 Nov, 23:002,990 MW3,386 MW
4 Nov, 00:002,767 MW3,272 MW
4 Nov, 01:002,837 MW3,191 MW
4 Nov, 02:002,639 MW3,075 MW
4 Nov, 03:002,453 MW3,087 MW
4 Nov, 04:002,556 MW3,111 MW
4 Nov, 05:002,915 MW3,256 MW
4 Nov, 06:002,884 MW3,468 MW
4 Nov, 07:002,945 MW3,523 MW
4 Nov, 08:002,909 MW3,409 MW
4 Nov, 09:002,577 MW3,376 MW
4 Nov, 10:002,559 MW3,361 MW
4 Nov, 11:002,646 MW3,385 MW
4 Nov, 12:002,736 MW3,435 MW
4 Nov, 13:002,808 MW3,507 MW
4 Nov, 14:002,883 MW3,584 MW
4 Nov, 15:002,996 MW3,682 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,058 MW3,828 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,118 MW3,972 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,133 MW4,043 MW
4 Nov, 19:003,073 MW3,981 MW
4 Nov, 20:002,949 MW3,883 MW
4 Nov, 21:002,845 MW3,761 MW
4 Nov, 22:002,811 MW3,546 MW
4 Nov, 23:002,650 MW3,357 MW
5 Nov, 00:002,476 MW3,293 MW
5 Nov, 01:002,365 MW3,218 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,280 MW3,116 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,272 MW3,021 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,326 MW3,113 MW
5 Nov, 05:002,360 MW3,269 MW
5 Nov, 06:002,505 MW3,487 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_srp_2026,
  title = {{SRP Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/srp/}
}

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