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Data as of 2026-11-05
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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 6 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 24% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 658 MW (15.5%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Dates and times are local (America/New_York).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for LGEE was off by 7.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026, and 24% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -7.2%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 658 MW (15.5%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00).
  • Across 53 US grids ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, LGEE came 38 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 273 MW, against average demand of 3,712 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 4% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

719 hours from 6 October to 5 November 2026
Average error7.4%
Bias-7.2%
Hours within 5%24%
Worst miss658 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-267 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 658 MW (15.5%) too low at 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00): forecast 3,591 MW, reported 4,249 MW.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (US Government work, public domain) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00)
LGEE day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,250 2,500 3,750 5,000 29 Oct, 10:0030 Oct, 10:0031 Oct, 10:001 Nov, 09:002 Nov, 09:003 Nov, 09:004 Nov, 09:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for LGEE over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 08:00 EST (UTC-05:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 10:003,984 MW3,613 MW
29 Oct, 11:003,962 MW3,665 MW
29 Oct, 12:003,852 MW3,727 MW
29 Oct, 13:003,936 MW3,798 MW
29 Oct, 14:003,925 MW3,854 MW
29 Oct, 15:004,115 MW3,905 MW
29 Oct, 16:004,233 MW3,926 MW
29 Oct, 17:004,281 MW3,942 MW
29 Oct, 18:004,241 MW3,862 MW
29 Oct, 19:004,155 MW3,827 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,990 MW3,723 MW
29 Oct, 21:003,868 MW3,544 MW
29 Oct, 22:003,678 MW3,354 MW
29 Oct, 23:003,450 MW3,166 MW
30 Oct, 00:003,237 MW3,009 MW
30 Oct, 01:003,214 MW2,903 MW
30 Oct, 02:003,201 MW2,827 MW
30 Oct, 03:003,195 MW2,786 MW
30 Oct, 04:003,240 MW2,789 MW
30 Oct, 05:003,220 MW2,891 MW
30 Oct, 06:003,435 MW3,136 MW
30 Oct, 07:003,637 MW3,331 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,691 MW3,422 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,733 MW3,481 MW
30 Oct, 10:003,700 MW3,537 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,773 MW3,593 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,884 MW3,646 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,887 MW3,706 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,881 MW3,753 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,915 MW3,792 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,947 MW3,807 MW
30 Oct, 17:004,093 MW3,809 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,927 MW3,742 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,845 MW3,696 MW
30 Oct, 20:003,748 MW3,605 MW
30 Oct, 21:003,641 MW3,449 MW
30 Oct, 22:003,535 MW3,292 MW
30 Oct, 23:003,456 MW3,110 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,314 MW2,969 MW
31 Oct, 01:003,178 MW2,801 MW
31 Oct, 02:003,089 MW2,722 MW
31 Oct, 03:003,044 MW2,665 MW
31 Oct, 04:003,044 MW2,635 MW
31 Oct, 05:003,042 MW2,650 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,962 MW2,725 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,108 MW2,827 MW
31 Oct, 08:003,171 MW2,932 MW
31 Oct, 09:003,246 MW3,048 MW
31 Oct, 10:003,283 MW3,146 MW
31 Oct, 11:003,482 MW3,195 MW
31 Oct, 12:003,494 MW3,249 MW
31 Oct, 13:003,439 MW3,292 MW
31 Oct, 14:003,452 MW3,338 MW
31 Oct, 15:003,619 MW3,389 MW
31 Oct, 16:003,561 MW3,437 MW
31 Oct, 17:003,370 MW3,457 MW
31 Oct, 18:003,284 MW3,415 MW
31 Oct, 19:003,302 MW3,410 MW
31 Oct, 20:003,244 MW3,346 MW
31 Oct, 21:003,241 MW3,212 MW
31 Oct, 22:003,064 MW3,079 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,910 MW2,913 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,820 MW2,771 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,741 MW2,674 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,813 MW2,598 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,707 MW2,546 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,891 MW2,521 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,840 MW2,524 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,847 MW2,584 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,881 MW2,682 MW
1 Nov, 07:003,021 MW2,806 MW
1 Nov, 08:003,123 MW2,942 MW
1 Nov, 09:003,226 MW3,050 MW
1 Nov, 10:003,345 MW3,107 MW
1 Nov, 11:003,417 MW3,156 MW
1 Nov, 12:003,395 MW3,194 MW
1 Nov, 13:003,462 MW3,227 MW
1 Nov, 14:003,438 MW3,255 MW
1 Nov, 15:003,483 MW3,284 MW
1 Nov, 16:003,430 MW3,291 MW
1 Nov, 17:003,612 MW3,325 MW
1 Nov, 18:003,694 MW3,341 MW
1 Nov, 19:003,521 MW3,270 MW
1 Nov, 20:003,437 MW3,160 MW
1 Nov, 21:003,292 MW3,027 MW
1 Nov, 22:003,245 MW2,900 MW
1 Nov, 23:003,121 MW2,825 MW
2 Nov, 00:003,014 MW2,745 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,953 MW2,694 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,954 MW2,690 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,940 MW2,721 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,989 MW2,833 MW
2 Nov, 05:003,137 MW3,035 MW
2 Nov, 06:003,471 MW3,252 MW
2 Nov, 07:003,683 MW3,381 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,829 MW3,458 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,905 MW3,542 MW
2 Nov, 10:003,887 MW3,599 MW
2 Nov, 11:003,932 MW3,628 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,869 MW3,645 MW
2 Nov, 13:003,926 MW3,650 MW
2 Nov, 14:003,972 MW3,630 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,956 MW3,605 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,918 MW3,608 MW
2 Nov, 17:003,951 MW3,654 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,915 MW3,692 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,900 MW3,650 MW
2 Nov, 20:003,763 MW3,544 MW
2 Nov, 21:003,678 MW3,392 MW
2 Nov, 22:003,637 MW3,221 MW
2 Nov, 23:003,520 MW3,063 MW
3 Nov, 00:003,357 MW3,037 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,270 MW2,938 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,157 MW2,884 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,190 MW2,864 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,242 MW2,913 MW
3 Nov, 05:003,261 MW3,081 MW
3 Nov, 06:003,533 MW3,320 MW
3 Nov, 07:003,653 MW3,470 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,709 MW3,572 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,726 MW3,692 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,888 MW3,785 MW
3 Nov, 11:004,038 MW3,890 MW
3 Nov, 12:004,167 MW3,994 MW
3 Nov, 13:004,336 MW4,054 MW
3 Nov, 14:004,408 MW4,098 MW
3 Nov, 15:004,326 MW4,104 MW
3 Nov, 16:004,197 MW4,064 MW
3 Nov, 17:004,258 MW4,043 MW
3 Nov, 18:004,379 MW4,054 MW
3 Nov, 19:004,312 MW3,960 MW
3 Nov, 20:004,216 MW3,819 MW
3 Nov, 21:004,071 MW3,635 MW
3 Nov, 22:003,854 MW3,440 MW
3 Nov, 23:003,603 MW3,241 MW
4 Nov, 00:003,427 MW3,100 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,330 MW2,997 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,253 MW2,932 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,194 MW2,904 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,122 MW2,953 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,238 MW3,131 MW
4 Nov, 06:003,427 MW3,376 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,683 MW3,505 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,780 MW3,596 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,845 MW3,704 MW
4 Nov, 10:003,819 MW3,767 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,775 MW3,824 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,850 MW3,863 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,959 MW3,859 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,910 MW3,860 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,871 MW3,826 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,861 MW3,788 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,974 MW3,793 MW
4 Nov, 18:004,092 MW3,833 MW
4 Nov, 19:004,055 MW3,762 MW
4 Nov, 20:003,946 MW3,655 MW
4 Nov, 21:003,766 MW3,494 MW
4 Nov, 22:003,582 MW3,322 MW
4 Nov, 23:003,378 MW3,157 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,324 MW3,018 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,263 MW2,935 MW
5 Nov, 02:003,225 MW2,883 MW
5 Nov, 03:003,168 MW2,868 MW
5 Nov, 04:003,163 MW2,935 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,199 MW3,137 MW
5 Nov, 06:003,535 MW3,395 MW
5 Nov, 07:003,932 MW3,519 MW
5 Nov, 08:004,249 MW3,591 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (719 of 720 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • US figures are for the EIA balancing authority or region named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_lgee_2026,
  title = {{LGEE Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/lgee/}
}

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