Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 669 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 189 MW (139.4%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Podgorica).

Key Facts

The day-ahead demand forecast for Montenegro was off by 6.2% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 669 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 65% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +2.7%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 189 MW (139.4%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Montenegro came 37 (1 is the smallest error).
On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 20 MW, against average demand of 334 MW.
The forecast was above reported demand in 64% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

669 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026

Average error6.2%

Bias+2.7%

Hours within 5%65%

Worst miss189 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+6 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 189 MW (139.4%) too high at 5 Nov 2026, 00:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 325 MW, reported 136 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)

Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Montenegro over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.

Data to 2026-11-05

Show the data table (168 rows)

Local hour	Reported demand	Day-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:00	305 MW	373 MW
29 Oct, 15:00	342 MW	386 MW
29 Oct, 16:00	344 MW	412 MW
29 Oct, 17:00	411 MW	449 MW
29 Oct, 18:00	411 MW	459 MW
29 Oct, 19:00	422 MW	461 MW
29 Oct, 20:00	399 MW	451 MW
29 Oct, 21:00	398 MW	429 MW
29 Oct, 22:00	390 MW	398 MW
29 Oct, 23:00	349 MW	359 MW
30 Oct, 00:00	304 MW	305 MW
30 Oct, 01:00	267 MW	269 MW
30 Oct, 02:00	247 MW	250 MW
30 Oct, 03:00	235 MW	243 MW
30 Oct, 04:00	237 MW	244 MW
30 Oct, 05:00	253 MW	262 MW
30 Oct, 06:00	298 MW	312 MW
30 Oct, 07:00	353 MW	365 MW
30 Oct, 08:00	344 MW	394 MW
30 Oct, 09:00	299 MW	397 MW
30 Oct, 10:00	328 MW	390 MW
30 Oct, 11:00	349 MW	384 MW
30 Oct, 12:00	363 MW	380 MW
30 Oct, 13:00	368 MW	379 MW
30 Oct, 14:00	370 MW	380 MW
30 Oct, 15:00	383 MW	393 MW
30 Oct, 16:00	410 MW	421 MW
30 Oct, 17:00	379 MW	461 MW
30 Oct, 18:00	383 MW	468 MW
30 Oct, 19:00	435 MW	466 MW
30 Oct, 20:00	427 MW	454 MW
30 Oct, 21:00	410 MW	436 MW
30 Oct, 22:00	381 MW	403 MW
30 Oct, 23:00	347 MW	366 MW
31 Oct, 00:00	315 MW	309 MW
31 Oct, 01:00	277 MW	271 MW
31 Oct, 02:00	252 MW	253 MW
31 Oct, 03:00	243 MW	243 MW
31 Oct, 04:00	242 MW	239 MW
31 Oct, 05:00	251 MW	254 MW
31 Oct, 06:00	271 MW	290 MW
31 Oct, 07:00	305 MW	337 MW
31 Oct, 08:00	310 MW	371 MW
31 Oct, 09:00	327 MW	381 MW
31 Oct, 10:00	355 MW	378 MW
31 Oct, 11:00	333 MW	376 MW
31 Oct, 12:00	356 MW	370 MW
31 Oct, 13:00	363 MW	367 MW
31 Oct, 14:00	369 MW	364 MW
31 Oct, 15:00	380 MW	379 MW
31 Oct, 16:00	398 MW	403 MW
31 Oct, 17:00	419 MW	438 MW
31 Oct, 18:00	418 MW	441 MW
31 Oct, 19:00	414 MW	443 MW
31 Oct, 20:00	410 MW	435 MW
31 Oct, 21:00	393 MW	416 MW
31 Oct, 22:00	379 MW	384 MW
31 Oct, 23:00	349 MW	354 MW
1 Nov, 00:00	307 MW	307 MW
1 Nov, 01:00	275 MW	270 MW
1 Nov, 02:00	255 MW	249 MW
1 Nov, 03:00	245 MW	237 MW
1 Nov, 04:00	244 MW	239 MW
1 Nov, 05:00	253 MW	240 MW
1 Nov, 06:00	266 MW	265 MW
1 Nov, 07:00	304 MW	311 MW
1 Nov, 08:00	357 MW	352 MW
1 Nov, 09:00	417 MW	378 MW
1 Nov, 10:00	444 MW	386 MW
1 Nov, 11:00	452 MW	386 MW
1 Nov, 12:00	451 MW	380 MW
1 Nov, 13:00	435 MW	374 MW
1 Nov, 14:00	420 MW	376 MW
1 Nov, 15:00	415 MW	388 MW
1 Nov, 16:00	434 MW	413 MW
1 Nov, 17:00	461 MW	440 MW
1 Nov, 18:00	463 MW	451 MW
1 Nov, 19:00	463 MW	451 MW
1 Nov, 20:00	462 MW	440 MW
1 Nov, 21:00	443 MW	421 MW
1 Nov, 22:00	409 MW	393 MW
1 Nov, 23:00	361 MW	359 MW
2 Nov, 00:00	306 MW	294 MW
2 Nov, 01:00	270 MW	262 MW
2 Nov, 02:00	249 MW	244 MW
2 Nov, 03:00	238 MW	240 MW
2 Nov, 04:00	238 MW	237 MW
2 Nov, 05:00	257 MW	255 MW
2 Nov, 06:00	307 MW	311 MW
2 Nov, 07:00	363 MW	365 MW
2 Nov, 08:00	377 MW	385 MW
2 Nov, 09:00	370 MW	384 MW
2 Nov, 10:00	357 MW	374 MW
2 Nov, 11:00	346 MW	366 MW
2 Nov, 12:00	353 MW	361 MW
2 Nov, 13:00	364 MW	362 MW
2 Nov, 14:00	358 MW	368 MW
2 Nov, 15:00	346 MW	390 MW
2 Nov, 16:00	397 MW	416 MW
2 Nov, 17:00	407 MW	445 MW
2 Nov, 18:00	452 MW	448 MW
2 Nov, 19:00	445 MW	444 MW
2 Nov, 20:00	349 MW	434 MW
2 Nov, 21:00	336 MW	417 MW
2 Nov, 22:00	397 MW	391 MW
2 Nov, 23:00	352 MW	358 MW
3 Nov, 00:00	313 MW	318 MW
3 Nov, 01:00	274 MW	279 MW
3 Nov, 02:00	255 MW	258 MW
3 Nov, 03:00	246 MW	249 MW
3 Nov, 04:00	247 MW	249 MW
3 Nov, 05:00	263 MW	265 MW
3 Nov, 06:00	306 MW	322 MW
3 Nov, 07:00	359 MW	378 MW
3 Nov, 08:00	380 MW	397 MW
3 Nov, 09:00	386 MW	395 MW
3 Nov, 10:00	386 MW	388 MW
3 Nov, 11:00	393 MW	381 MW
3 Nov, 12:00	401 MW	374 MW
3 Nov, 13:00	407 MW	373 MW
3 Nov, 14:00	405 MW	378 MW
3 Nov, 15:00	412 MW	393 MW
3 Nov, 16:00	435 MW	420 MW
3 Nov, 17:00	464 MW	455 MW
3 Nov, 18:00	467 MW	458 MW
3 Nov, 19:00	461 MW	460 MW
3 Nov, 20:00	458 MW	449 MW
3 Nov, 21:00	444 MW	429 MW
3 Nov, 22:00	412 MW	394 MW
3 Nov, 23:00	372 MW	361 MW
4 Nov, 00:00	321 MW	320 MW
4 Nov, 01:00	282 MW	283 MW
4 Nov, 02:00	258 MW	261 MW
4 Nov, 03:00	248 MW	252 MW
4 Nov, 04:00	247 MW	250 MW
4 Nov, 05:00	266 MW	269 MW
4 Nov, 06:00	315 MW	319 MW
4 Nov, 07:00	360 MW	380 MW
4 Nov, 08:00	363 MW	400 MW
4 Nov, 09:00	352 MW	392 MW
4 Nov, 10:00	331 MW	379 MW
4 Nov, 11:00	319 MW	369 MW
4 Nov, 12:00	325 MW	362 MW
4 Nov, 13:00	305 MW	369 MW
4 Nov, 14:00	326 MW	382 MW
4 Nov, 15:00	380 MW	403 MW
4 Nov, 16:00	425 MW	434 MW
4 Nov, 17:00	462 MW	460 MW
4 Nov, 18:00	466 MW	464 MW
4 Nov, 19:00	464 MW	461 MW
4 Nov, 20:00	462 MW	450 MW
4 Nov, 21:00	445 MW	436 MW
4 Nov, 22:00	413 MW	408 MW
4 Nov, 23:00	371 MW	368 MW
5 Nov, 00:00	136 MW	325 MW
5 Nov, 01:00	n/a	283 MW
5 Nov, 02:00	n/a	263 MW
5 Nov, 03:00	n/a	255 MW
5 Nov, 04:00	114 MW	253 MW
5 Nov, 05:00	220 MW	272 MW
5 Nov, 06:00	218 MW	321 MW
5 Nov, 07:00	346 MW	375 MW
5 Nov, 08:00	575 MW	390 MW
5 Nov, 09:00	498 MW	383 MW
5 Nov, 10:00	351 MW	370 MW
5 Nov, 11:00	330 MW	359 MW
5 Nov, 12:00	311 MW	354 MW
5 Nov, 13:00	297 MW	355 MW

Assumptions

Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (669 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.

Cite this page

APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

BibTeX

@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_me_2026,
  title = {{Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/me/

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Montenegro Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

Key Facts

Forecast Error at a Glance

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Assumptions

Related