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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 94% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.1%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway Central (NO3) came 9 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 68 MW, against average demand of 3,135 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 36% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error2.1%
Bias-1.1%
Hours within 5%94%
Worst miss297 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-36 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 297 MW (9.0%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 23:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 2,986 MW, reported 3,283 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Norway Central (NO3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:003,247 MW3,252 MW
29 Oct, 15:003,253 MW3,272 MW
29 Oct, 16:003,309 MW3,289 MW
29 Oct, 17:003,303 MW3,260 MW
29 Oct, 18:003,257 MW3,261 MW
29 Oct, 19:003,236 MW3,213 MW
29 Oct, 20:003,219 MW3,236 MW
29 Oct, 21:003,181 MW3,189 MW
29 Oct, 22:003,124 MW3,112 MW
29 Oct, 23:003,032 MW3,037 MW
30 Oct, 00:002,944 MW2,913 MW
30 Oct, 01:002,868 MW2,885 MW
30 Oct, 02:002,821 MW2,857 MW
30 Oct, 03:002,798 MW2,857 MW
30 Oct, 04:002,791 MW2,843 MW
30 Oct, 05:002,838 MW2,865 MW
30 Oct, 06:002,974 MW3,003 MW
30 Oct, 07:003,167 MW3,130 MW
30 Oct, 08:003,212 MW3,192 MW
30 Oct, 09:003,223 MW3,225 MW
30 Oct, 10:003,256 MW3,210 MW
30 Oct, 11:003,235 MW3,197 MW
30 Oct, 12:003,242 MW3,193 MW
30 Oct, 13:003,218 MW3,195 MW
30 Oct, 14:003,212 MW3,211 MW
30 Oct, 15:003,246 MW3,200 MW
30 Oct, 16:003,313 MW3,239 MW
30 Oct, 17:003,316 MW3,212 MW
30 Oct, 18:003,287 MW3,224 MW
30 Oct, 19:003,249 MW3,190 MW
30 Oct, 20:003,188 MW3,146 MW
30 Oct, 21:003,157 MW3,106 MW
30 Oct, 22:003,096 MW3,048 MW
30 Oct, 23:003,001 MW2,946 MW
31 Oct, 00:003,009 MW2,903 MW
31 Oct, 01:002,967 MW2,877 MW
31 Oct, 02:002,925 MW2,847 MW
31 Oct, 03:002,901 MW2,848 MW
31 Oct, 04:002,896 MW2,798 MW
31 Oct, 05:002,901 MW2,795 MW
31 Oct, 06:002,938 MW2,843 MW
31 Oct, 07:003,002 MW2,921 MW
31 Oct, 08:003,070 MW2,976 MW
31 Oct, 09:003,134 MW3,028 MW
31 Oct, 10:003,169 MW3,049 MW
31 Oct, 11:003,182 MW3,056 MW
31 Oct, 12:003,185 MW3,054 MW
31 Oct, 13:003,173 MW3,038 MW
31 Oct, 14:003,187 MW3,042 MW
31 Oct, 15:003,199 MW3,065 MW
31 Oct, 16:003,244 MW3,092 MW
31 Oct, 17:003,251 MW3,102 MW
31 Oct, 18:003,226 MW3,112 MW
31 Oct, 19:003,174 MW3,079 MW
31 Oct, 20:003,124 MW3,069 MW
31 Oct, 21:003,021 MW2,999 MW
31 Oct, 22:002,968 MW2,941 MW
31 Oct, 23:002,923 MW2,887 MW
1 Nov, 00:002,820 MW2,908 MW
1 Nov, 01:002,774 MW2,869 MW
1 Nov, 02:002,741 MW2,839 MW
1 Nov, 03:002,719 MW2,834 MW
1 Nov, 04:002,690 MW2,807 MW
1 Nov, 05:002,664 MW2,815 MW
1 Nov, 06:002,689 MW2,868 MW
1 Nov, 07:002,756 MW2,916 MW
1 Nov, 08:002,804 MW2,969 MW
1 Nov, 09:002,876 MW3,014 MW
1 Nov, 10:002,902 MW3,066 MW
1 Nov, 11:002,915 MW3,085 MW
1 Nov, 12:002,918 MW3,083 MW
1 Nov, 13:002,938 MW3,093 MW
1 Nov, 14:002,998 MW3,118 MW
1 Nov, 15:003,067 MW3,153 MW
1 Nov, 16:003,145 MW3,183 MW
1 Nov, 17:003,184 MW3,211 MW
1 Nov, 18:003,193 MW3,239 MW
1 Nov, 19:003,215 MW3,208 MW
1 Nov, 20:003,218 MW3,219 MW
1 Nov, 21:003,166 MW3,195 MW
1 Nov, 22:003,120 MW3,147 MW
1 Nov, 23:003,046 MW3,071 MW
2 Nov, 00:002,987 MW2,924 MW
2 Nov, 01:002,936 MW2,877 MW
2 Nov, 02:002,908 MW2,860 MW
2 Nov, 03:002,919 MW2,854 MW
2 Nov, 04:002,939 MW2,863 MW
2 Nov, 05:002,993 MW2,906 MW
2 Nov, 06:003,147 MW3,041 MW
2 Nov, 07:003,360 MW3,200 MW
2 Nov, 08:003,486 MW3,269 MW
2 Nov, 09:003,485 MW3,294 MW
2 Nov, 10:003,483 MW3,296 MW
2 Nov, 11:003,476 MW3,265 MW
2 Nov, 12:003,435 MW3,256 MW
2 Nov, 13:003,403 MW3,247 MW
2 Nov, 14:003,401 MW3,275 MW
2 Nov, 15:003,449 MW3,271 MW
2 Nov, 16:003,518 MW3,296 MW
2 Nov, 17:003,531 MW3,286 MW
2 Nov, 18:003,511 MW3,284 MW
2 Nov, 19:003,508 MW3,262 MW
2 Nov, 20:003,480 MW3,219 MW
2 Nov, 21:003,436 MW3,155 MW
2 Nov, 22:003,385 MW3,091 MW
2 Nov, 23:003,283 MW2,986 MW
3 Nov, 00:003,177 MW2,980 MW
3 Nov, 01:003,101 MW2,934 MW
3 Nov, 02:003,049 MW2,890 MW
3 Nov, 03:003,025 MW2,869 MW
3 Nov, 04:003,019 MW2,882 MW
3 Nov, 05:003,038 MW2,913 MW
3 Nov, 06:003,165 MW3,050 MW
3 Nov, 07:00n/a3,219 MW
3 Nov, 08:003,404 MW3,270 MW
3 Nov, 09:003,414 MW3,281 MW
3 Nov, 10:003,422 MW3,275 MW
3 Nov, 11:003,403 MW3,260 MW
3 Nov, 12:003,414 MW3,267 MW
3 Nov, 13:003,377 MW3,262 MW
3 Nov, 14:003,387 MW3,277 MW
3 Nov, 15:003,423 MW3,287 MW
3 Nov, 16:003,501 MW3,292 MW
3 Nov, 17:003,507 MW3,293 MW
3 Nov, 18:003,484 MW3,279 MW
3 Nov, 19:003,473 MW3,261 MW
3 Nov, 20:003,446 MW3,230 MW
3 Nov, 21:003,403 MW3,177 MW
3 Nov, 22:003,352 MW3,127 MW
3 Nov, 23:003,223 MW3,027 MW
4 Nov, 00:003,128 MW2,994 MW
4 Nov, 01:003,072 MW2,966 MW
4 Nov, 02:003,046 MW2,935 MW
4 Nov, 03:003,025 MW2,890 MW
4 Nov, 04:003,001 MW2,897 MW
4 Nov, 05:003,035 MW2,932 MW
4 Nov, 06:003,188 MW3,046 MW
4 Nov, 07:003,365 MW3,196 MW
4 Nov, 08:003,431 MW3,257 MW
4 Nov, 09:003,438 MW3,263 MW
4 Nov, 10:003,448 MW3,247 MW
4 Nov, 11:003,425 MW3,272 MW
4 Nov, 12:003,390 MW3,276 MW
4 Nov, 13:003,375 MW3,265 MW
4 Nov, 14:003,429 MW3,302 MW
4 Nov, 15:003,459 MW3,309 MW
4 Nov, 16:003,511 MW3,349 MW
4 Nov, 17:003,489 MW3,319 MW
4 Nov, 18:003,461 MW3,316 MW
4 Nov, 19:003,464 MW3,300 MW
4 Nov, 20:003,422 MW3,292 MW
4 Nov, 21:003,393 MW3,237 MW
4 Nov, 22:003,327 MW3,175 MW
4 Nov, 23:003,221 MW3,084 MW
5 Nov, 00:003,129 MW3,093 MW
5 Nov, 01:003,062 MW3,023 MW
5 Nov, 02:002,978 MW3,020 MW
5 Nov, 03:002,973 MW2,996 MW
5 Nov, 04:002,958 MW3,010 MW
5 Nov, 05:003,033 MW3,044 MW
5 Nov, 06:003,184 MW3,174 MW
5 Nov, 07:003,357 MW3,348 MW
5 Nov, 08:003,398 MW3,400 MW
5 Nov, 09:003,386 MW3,415 MW
5 Nov, 10:003,337 MW3,414 MW
5 Nov, 11:003,387 MW3,402 MW
5 Nov, 12:003,385 MW3,393 MW
5 Nov, 13:003,393 MW3,365 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_no3_2026,
  title = {{Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/no3/}
}

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