Statistics
Page built 2026-09-21
Data as of 2026-09-20
Search
Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Norway Central (NO3) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 209 MW (8.7%) too high at 6 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Oslo).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Norway Central (NO3) was off by 2.0% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 96% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.6%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 209 MW (8.7%) too high at 6 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Norway Central (NO3) came 6 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 56 MW, against average demand of 2,800 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 38% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

684 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error2.0%
Bias-0.6%
Hours within 5%96%
Worst miss209 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-20 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 209 MW (8.7%) too high at 6 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 2,602 MW, reported 2,393 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Norway Central (NO3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Norway Central (NO3) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Norway Central (NO3) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:002,853 MW2,782 MW
13 Sept, 15:002,795 MW2,791 MW
13 Sept, 16:002,804 MW2,791 MW
13 Sept, 17:002,809 MW2,812 MW
13 Sept, 18:002,831 MW2,848 MW
13 Sept, 19:002,845 MW2,868 MW
13 Sept, 20:002,916 MW2,877 MW
13 Sept, 21:002,896 MW2,889 MW
13 Sept, 22:002,880 MW2,852 MW
13 Sept, 23:002,855 MW2,782 MW
14 Sept, 00:002,808 MW2,784 MW
14 Sept, 01:002,759 MW2,751 MW
14 Sept, 02:002,723 MW2,727 MW
14 Sept, 03:002,698 MW2,697 MW
14 Sept, 04:002,719 MW2,708 MW
14 Sept, 05:002,783 MW2,741 MW
14 Sept, 06:002,939 MW2,875 MW
14 Sept, 07:003,124 MW3,025 MW
14 Sept, 08:003,192 MW3,095 MW
14 Sept, 09:003,169 MW3,097 MW
14 Sept, 10:003,141 MW3,084 MW
14 Sept, 11:003,109 MW3,052 MW
14 Sept, 12:003,066 MW3,029 MW
14 Sept, 13:003,073 MW3,009 MW
14 Sept, 14:003,090 MW3,005 MW
14 Sept, 15:003,104 MW3,011 MW
14 Sept, 16:003,117 MW3,002 MW
14 Sept, 17:003,067 MW2,989 MW
14 Sept, 18:003,018 MW2,993 MW
14 Sept, 19:003,090 MW2,997 MW
14 Sept, 20:003,124 MW2,998 MW
14 Sept, 21:003,083 MW2,988 MW
14 Sept, 22:003,022 MW2,938 MW
14 Sept, 23:002,938 MW2,847 MW
15 Sept, 00:002,835 MW2,808 MW
15 Sept, 01:002,796 MW2,777 MW
15 Sept, 02:002,777 MW2,726 MW
15 Sept, 03:002,782 MW2,692 MW
15 Sept, 04:002,772 MW2,686 MW
15 Sept, 05:002,809 MW2,699 MW
15 Sept, 06:002,911 MW2,813 MW
15 Sept, 07:003,047 MW2,974 MW
15 Sept, 08:003,072 MW3,038 MW
15 Sept, 09:003,058 MW3,053 MW
15 Sept, 10:003,062 MW3,024 MW
15 Sept, 11:003,035 MW3,020 MW
15 Sept, 12:003,024 MW3,015 MW
15 Sept, 13:003,020 MW3,002 MW
15 Sept, 14:003,048 MW2,994 MW
15 Sept, 15:003,077 MW3,014 MW
15 Sept, 16:003,083 MW2,999 MW
15 Sept, 17:003,041 MW2,986 MW
15 Sept, 18:003,003 MW2,971 MW
15 Sept, 19:002,995 MW2,990 MW
15 Sept, 20:003,014 MW2,995 MW
15 Sept, 21:002,979 MW2,959 MW
15 Sept, 22:002,921 MW2,922 MW
15 Sept, 23:002,816 MW2,838 MW
16 Sept, 00:002,710 MW2,764 MW
16 Sept, 01:002,638 MW2,718 MW
16 Sept, 02:002,626 MW2,698 MW
16 Sept, 03:002,624 MW2,670 MW
16 Sept, 04:002,621 MW2,670 MW
16 Sept, 05:002,650 MW2,681 MW
16 Sept, 06:002,789 MW2,799 MW
16 Sept, 07:002,936 MW2,960 MW
16 Sept, 08:003,004 MW3,014 MW
16 Sept, 09:003,036 MW3,037 MW
16 Sept, 10:003,056 MW3,007 MW
16 Sept, 11:003,054 MW3,017 MW
16 Sept, 12:003,067 MW3,010 MW
16 Sept, 13:003,069 MW2,998 MW
16 Sept, 14:003,077 MW3,022 MW
16 Sept, 15:003,070 MW3,015 MW
16 Sept, 16:003,077 MW3,029 MW
16 Sept, 17:003,071 MW3,009 MW
16 Sept, 18:003,053 MW3,014 MW
16 Sept, 19:003,057 MW3,001 MW
16 Sept, 20:003,070 MW3,013 MW
16 Sept, 21:003,042 MW2,987 MW
16 Sept, 22:002,998 MW2,948 MW
16 Sept, 23:002,903 MW2,849 MW
17 Sept, 00:002,807 MW2,781 MW
17 Sept, 01:002,746 MW2,737 MW
17 Sept, 02:002,701 MW2,712 MW
17 Sept, 03:002,678 MW2,709 MW
17 Sept, 04:002,674 MW2,717 MW
17 Sept, 05:002,675 MW2,754 MW
17 Sept, 06:002,811 MW2,868 MW
17 Sept, 07:002,944 MW3,015 MW
17 Sept, 08:003,020 MW3,072 MW
17 Sept, 09:003,042 MW3,100 MW
17 Sept, 10:003,035 MW3,090 MW
17 Sept, 11:002,995 MW3,061 MW
17 Sept, 12:002,982 MW3,046 MW
17 Sept, 13:002,945 MW3,036 MW
17 Sept, 14:002,963 MW3,057 MW
17 Sept, 15:002,987 MW3,039 MW
17 Sept, 16:003,028 MW3,048 MW
17 Sept, 17:003,011 MW3,018 MW
17 Sept, 18:003,019 MW3,012 MW
17 Sept, 19:003,059 MW3,002 MW
17 Sept, 20:003,111 MW3,023 MW
17 Sept, 21:003,082 MW2,998 MW
17 Sept, 22:003,023 MW2,958 MW
17 Sept, 23:002,939 MW2,886 MW
18 Sept, 00:002,857 MW2,779 MW
18 Sept, 01:002,802 MW2,730 MW
18 Sept, 02:002,760 MW2,707 MW
18 Sept, 03:002,744 MW2,706 MW
18 Sept, 04:002,754 MW2,681 MW
18 Sept, 05:002,762 MW2,709 MW
18 Sept, 06:002,873 MW2,828 MW
18 Sept, 07:003,024 MW2,953 MW
18 Sept, 08:00n/a3,024 MW
18 Sept, 09:003,056 MW3,039 MW
18 Sept, 10:002,993 MW3,023 MW
18 Sept, 11:002,976 MW3,013 MW
18 Sept, 12:002,982 MW3,004 MW
18 Sept, 13:002,957 MW2,985 MW
18 Sept, 14:002,957 MW2,979 MW
18 Sept, 15:002,984 MW2,983 MW
18 Sept, 16:002,987 MW2,966 MW
18 Sept, 17:002,934 MW2,958 MW
18 Sept, 18:002,939 MW2,953 MW
18 Sept, 19:002,962 MW2,944 MW
18 Sept, 20:002,902 MW2,947 MW
18 Sept, 21:002,864 MW2,912 MW
18 Sept, 22:002,825 MW2,873 MW
18 Sept, 23:002,808 MW2,805 MW
19 Sept, 00:002,734 MW2,815 MW
19 Sept, 01:002,751 MW2,778 MW
19 Sept, 02:002,680 MW2,746 MW
19 Sept, 03:002,669 MW2,733 MW
19 Sept, 04:002,689 MW2,703 MW
19 Sept, 05:002,692 MW2,699 MW
19 Sept, 06:002,729 MW2,733 MW
19 Sept, 07:002,783 MW2,781 MW
19 Sept, 08:00n/a2,851 MW
19 Sept, 09:002,902 MW2,913 MW
19 Sept, 10:002,927 MW2,933 MW
19 Sept, 11:002,911 MW2,930 MW
19 Sept, 12:002,911 MW2,920 MW
19 Sept, 13:002,891 MW2,902 MW
19 Sept, 14:002,858 MW2,906 MW
19 Sept, 15:002,857 MW2,913 MW
19 Sept, 16:002,907 MW2,928 MW
19 Sept, 17:002,906 MW2,931 MW
19 Sept, 18:002,916 MW2,953 MW
19 Sept, 19:002,931 MW2,967 MW
19 Sept, 20:002,909 MW2,948 MW
19 Sept, 21:002,872 MW2,908 MW
19 Sept, 22:002,841 MW2,865 MW
19 Sept, 23:002,796 MW2,801 MW
20 Sept, 00:002,723 MW2,747 MW
20 Sept, 01:002,683 MW2,716 MW
20 Sept, 02:002,654 MW2,691 MW
20 Sept, 03:002,635 MW2,667 MW
20 Sept, 04:002,637 MW2,645 MW
20 Sept, 05:002,626 MW2,639 MW
20 Sept, 06:002,647 MW2,681 MW
20 Sept, 07:002,673 MW2,725 MW
20 Sept, 08:002,751 MW2,764 MW
20 Sept, 09:002,819 MW2,823 MW
20 Sept, 10:002,862 MW2,857 MW
20 Sept, 11:002,870 MW2,875 MW
20 Sept, 12:002,862 MW2,858 MW
20 Sept, 13:002,877 MW2,863 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (684 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.