Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 10.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 32% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 10.6% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 32% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North (SE1) came 41 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 127 MW, against average demand of 1,217 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error10.6%
Bias-0.0%
Hours within 5%32%
Worst miss625 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-22 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 625 MW (32.9%) too low at 11 Oct 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,278 MW, reported 1,903 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Sweden North (SE1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 29 Oct, 14:0030 Oct, 14:0031 Oct, 14:001 Nov, 14:002 Nov, 14:003 Nov, 14:004 Nov, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 13:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 14:001,516 MW1,209 MW
29 Oct, 15:001,454 MW1,222 MW
29 Oct, 16:001,417 MW1,231 MW
29 Oct, 17:001,363 MW1,236 MW
29 Oct, 18:001,273 MW1,226 MW
29 Oct, 19:001,218 MW1,208 MW
29 Oct, 20:001,240 MW1,195 MW
29 Oct, 21:001,146 MW1,170 MW
29 Oct, 22:00944 MW1,144 MW
29 Oct, 23:001,006 MW1,120 MW
30 Oct, 00:001,047 MW1,110 MW
30 Oct, 01:001,096 MW1,118 MW
30 Oct, 02:001,167 MW1,122 MW
30 Oct, 03:001,008 MW1,127 MW
30 Oct, 04:001,044 MW1,149 MW
30 Oct, 05:001,120 MW1,185 MW
30 Oct, 06:001,135 MW1,222 MW
30 Oct, 07:001,161 MW1,235 MW
30 Oct, 08:001,133 MW1,252 MW
30 Oct, 09:001,242 MW1,246 MW
30 Oct, 10:001,090 MW1,251 MW
30 Oct, 11:001,073 MW1,236 MW
30 Oct, 12:001,095 MW1,232 MW
30 Oct, 13:001,119 MW1,234 MW
30 Oct, 14:001,190 MW1,231 MW
30 Oct, 15:001,196 MW1,244 MW
30 Oct, 16:001,303 MW1,264 MW
30 Oct, 17:001,407 MW1,271 MW
30 Oct, 18:001,366 MW1,255 MW
30 Oct, 19:001,457 MW1,244 MW
30 Oct, 20:001,403 MW1,239 MW
30 Oct, 21:001,334 MW1,216 MW
30 Oct, 22:001,304 MW1,198 MW
30 Oct, 23:001,231 MW1,177 MW
31 Oct, 00:001,191 MW1,157 MW
31 Oct, 01:001,200 MW1,150 MW
31 Oct, 02:001,187 MW1,154 MW
31 Oct, 03:001,170 MW1,154 MW
31 Oct, 04:001,063 MW1,167 MW
31 Oct, 05:001,037 MW1,165 MW
31 Oct, 06:00980 MW1,179 MW
31 Oct, 07:00902 MW1,171 MW
31 Oct, 08:00884 MW1,184 MW
31 Oct, 09:00950 MW1,198 MW
31 Oct, 10:001,078 MW1,193 MW
31 Oct, 11:001,155 MW1,190 MW
31 Oct, 12:001,209 MW1,188 MW
31 Oct, 13:001,152 MW1,189 MW
31 Oct, 14:001,320 MW1,190 MW
31 Oct, 15:001,346 MW1,212 MW
31 Oct, 16:001,219 MW1,232 MW
31 Oct, 17:001,212 MW1,232 MW
31 Oct, 18:001,039 MW1,207 MW
31 Oct, 19:00997 MW1,186 MW
31 Oct, 20:001,030 MW1,156 MW
31 Oct, 21:00991 MW1,146 MW
31 Oct, 22:001,076 MW1,130 MW
31 Oct, 23:001,169 MW1,116 MW
1 Nov, 00:001,102 MW1,127 MW
1 Nov, 01:00856 MW1,118 MW
1 Nov, 02:00910 MW1,114 MW
1 Nov, 03:001,003 MW1,112 MW
1 Nov, 04:00934 MW1,124 MW
1 Nov, 05:001,151 MW1,126 MW
1 Nov, 06:001,106 MW1,146 MW
1 Nov, 07:001,046 MW1,146 MW
1 Nov, 08:001,055 MW1,163 MW
1 Nov, 09:001,003 MW1,174 MW
1 Nov, 10:001,039 MW1,186 MW
1 Nov, 11:001,098 MW1,190 MW
1 Nov, 12:001,319 MW1,196 MW
1 Nov, 13:001,235 MW1,195 MW
1 Nov, 14:001,158 MW1,198 MW
1 Nov, 15:001,202 MW1,219 MW
1 Nov, 16:001,288 MW1,240 MW
1 Nov, 17:001,279 MW1,254 MW
1 Nov, 18:001,237 MW1,251 MW
1 Nov, 19:001,131 MW1,246 MW
1 Nov, 20:001,101 MW1,226 MW
1 Nov, 21:001,074 MW1,204 MW
1 Nov, 22:001,109 MW1,190 MW
1 Nov, 23:001,287 MW1,164 MW
2 Nov, 00:001,349 MW1,160 MW
2 Nov, 01:001,309 MW1,151 MW
2 Nov, 02:001,277 MW1,150 MW
2 Nov, 03:001,138 MW1,158 MW
2 Nov, 04:001,069 MW1,180 MW
2 Nov, 05:001,317 MW1,230 MW
2 Nov, 06:001,331 MW1,270 MW
2 Nov, 07:001,220 MW1,294 MW
2 Nov, 08:001,366 MW1,301 MW
2 Nov, 09:001,444 MW1,288 MW
2 Nov, 10:001,460 MW1,284 MW
2 Nov, 11:001,332 MW1,272 MW
2 Nov, 12:001,271 MW1,261 MW
2 Nov, 13:001,145 MW1,265 MW
2 Nov, 14:001,200 MW1,273 MW
2 Nov, 15:001,094 MW1,298 MW
2 Nov, 16:001,310 MW1,315 MW
2 Nov, 17:001,293 MW1,318 MW
2 Nov, 18:001,254 MW1,314 MW
2 Nov, 19:001,241 MW1,293 MW
2 Nov, 20:001,265 MW1,272 MW
2 Nov, 21:001,231 MW1,248 MW
2 Nov, 22:001,123 MW1,217 MW
2 Nov, 23:001,206 MW1,196 MW
3 Nov, 00:001,242 MW1,168 MW
3 Nov, 01:001,206 MW1,157 MW
3 Nov, 02:001,025 MW1,154 MW
3 Nov, 03:00987 MW1,154 MW
3 Nov, 04:00971 MW1,174 MW
3 Nov, 05:001,282 MW1,228 MW
3 Nov, 06:001,341 MW1,259 MW
3 Nov, 07:001,337 MW1,284 MW
3 Nov, 08:001,398 MW1,309 MW
3 Nov, 09:001,401 MW1,297 MW
3 Nov, 10:001,506 MW1,290 MW
3 Nov, 11:001,560 MW1,280 MW
3 Nov, 12:001,526 MW1,275 MW
3 Nov, 13:001,444 MW1,290 MW
3 Nov, 14:001,468 MW1,288 MW
3 Nov, 15:001,314 MW1,313 MW
3 Nov, 16:001,344 MW1,325 MW
3 Nov, 17:001,399 MW1,331 MW
3 Nov, 18:001,280 MW1,322 MW
3 Nov, 19:001,195 MW1,300 MW
3 Nov, 20:00958 MW1,276 MW
3 Nov, 21:00894 MW1,244 MW
3 Nov, 22:001,058 MW1,218 MW
3 Nov, 23:001,118 MW1,182 MW
4 Nov, 00:001,041 MW1,158 MW
4 Nov, 01:00777 MW1,150 MW
4 Nov, 02:00897 MW1,137 MW
4 Nov, 03:001,026 MW1,135 MW
4 Nov, 04:00923 MW1,150 MW
4 Nov, 05:00965 MW1,179 MW
4 Nov, 06:001,120 MW1,221 MW
4 Nov, 07:001,344 MW1,231 MW
4 Nov, 08:001,103 MW1,238 MW
4 Nov, 09:00981 MW1,235 MW
4 Nov, 10:00979 MW1,228 MW
4 Nov, 11:00994 MW1,219 MW
4 Nov, 12:001,075 MW1,219 MW
4 Nov, 13:001,201 MW1,217 MW
4 Nov, 14:001,296 MW1,222 MW
4 Nov, 15:001,606 MW1,243 MW
4 Nov, 16:001,306 MW1,258 MW
4 Nov, 17:001,250 MW1,270 MW
4 Nov, 18:001,310 MW1,255 MW
4 Nov, 19:001,151 MW1,243 MW
4 Nov, 20:001,035 MW1,220 MW
4 Nov, 21:001,061 MW1,189 MW
4 Nov, 22:00992 MW1,162 MW
4 Nov, 23:00950 MW1,139 MW
5 Nov, 00:00972 MW1,121 MW
5 Nov, 01:001,091 MW1,130 MW
5 Nov, 02:001,287 MW1,129 MW
5 Nov, 03:001,345 MW1,137 MW
5 Nov, 04:001,213 MW1,146 MW
5 Nov, 05:001,106 MW1,183 MW
5 Nov, 06:001,160 MW1,228 MW
5 Nov, 07:001,226 MW1,243 MW
5 Nov, 08:001,283 MW1,261 MW
5 Nov, 09:001,062 MW1,252 MW
5 Nov, 10:001,090 MW1,249 MW
5 Nov, 11:001,031 MW1,248 MW
5 Nov, 12:001,026 MW1,252 MW
5 Nov, 13:001,066 MW1,253 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_se1_2026,
  title = {{Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/se1/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.