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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

Sweden North (SE1) Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 11.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +7.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 587 MW (33.7%) too low at 10 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Stockholm).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Sweden North (SE1) was off by 11.8% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 31% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was +7.1%: it ran high on average, an over forecast. The largest miss was 587 MW (33.7%) too low at 10 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Sweden North (SE1) came 43 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 114 MW, against average demand of 1,069 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 67% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

686 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error11.8%
Bias+7.1%
Hours within 5%31%
Worst miss587 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (+55 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran high on average, an over forecast. The worst miss was 587 MW (33.7%) too low at 10 Sept 2026, 07:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 1,153 MW, reported 1,740 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
Sweden North (SE1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 13 Sept, 14:0014 Sept, 14:0015 Sept, 14:0016 Sept, 14:0017 Sept, 14:0018 Sept, 14:0019 Sept, 14:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Sweden North (SE1) over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
Sweden North (SE1) day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 14:00711 MW1,114 MW
13 Sept, 15:00962 MW1,127 MW
13 Sept, 16:001,241 MW1,135 MW
13 Sept, 17:001,371 MW1,148 MW
13 Sept, 18:001,281 MW1,143 MW
13 Sept, 19:001,032 MW1,152 MW
13 Sept, 20:001,044 MW1,158 MW
13 Sept, 21:001,017 MW1,154 MW
13 Sept, 22:00920 MW1,135 MW
13 Sept, 23:00955 MW1,115 MW
14 Sept, 00:001,054 MW1,105 MW
14 Sept, 01:001,017 MW1,093 MW
14 Sept, 02:001,015 MW1,086 MW
14 Sept, 03:001,073 MW1,087 MW
14 Sept, 04:001,025 MW1,097 MW
14 Sept, 05:00962 MW1,110 MW
14 Sept, 06:00998 MW1,141 MW
14 Sept, 07:001,130 MW1,170 MW
14 Sept, 08:001,126 MW1,177 MW
14 Sept, 09:001,096 MW1,178 MW
14 Sept, 10:001,008 MW1,162 MW
14 Sept, 11:001,064 MW1,156 MW
14 Sept, 12:001,105 MW1,157 MW
14 Sept, 13:001,115 MW1,158 MW
14 Sept, 14:001,055 MW1,150 MW
14 Sept, 15:001,023 MW1,165 MW
14 Sept, 16:001,081 MW1,162 MW
14 Sept, 17:001,120 MW1,171 MW
14 Sept, 18:001,065 MW1,171 MW
14 Sept, 19:001,122 MW1,174 MW
14 Sept, 20:001,216 MW1,178 MW
14 Sept, 21:001,365 MW1,175 MW
14 Sept, 22:001,339 MW1,155 MW
14 Sept, 23:001,252 MW1,132 MW
15 Sept, 00:00938 MW1,132 MW
15 Sept, 01:00958 MW1,113 MW
15 Sept, 02:00960 MW1,097 MW
15 Sept, 03:00978 MW1,091 MW
15 Sept, 04:00887 MW1,100 MW
15 Sept, 05:00798 MW1,118 MW
15 Sept, 06:00967 MW1,146 MW
15 Sept, 07:001,237 MW1,172 MW
15 Sept, 08:00929 MW1,177 MW
15 Sept, 09:00983 MW1,182 MW
15 Sept, 10:00796 MW1,174 MW
15 Sept, 11:00831 MW1,164 MW
15 Sept, 12:00936 MW1,166 MW
15 Sept, 13:00923 MW1,167 MW
15 Sept, 14:00592 MW1,170 MW
15 Sept, 15:00792 MW1,182 MW
15 Sept, 16:00901 MW1,186 MW
15 Sept, 17:00980 MW1,195 MW
15 Sept, 18:001,083 MW1,187 MW
15 Sept, 19:001,008 MW1,183 MW
15 Sept, 20:00955 MW1,174 MW
15 Sept, 21:001,044 MW1,168 MW
15 Sept, 22:001,018 MW1,142 MW
15 Sept, 23:001,055 MW1,123 MW
16 Sept, 00:001,048 MW1,105 MW
16 Sept, 01:001,034 MW1,079 MW
16 Sept, 02:00965 MW1,064 MW
16 Sept, 03:00997 MW1,064 MW
16 Sept, 04:00912 MW1,075 MW
16 Sept, 05:001,061 MW1,091 MW
16 Sept, 06:001,056 MW1,117 MW
16 Sept, 07:00941 MW1,150 MW
16 Sept, 08:001,062 MW1,166 MW
16 Sept, 09:001,075 MW1,166 MW
16 Sept, 10:001,121 MW1,165 MW
16 Sept, 11:001,249 MW1,169 MW
16 Sept, 12:001,471 MW1,183 MW
16 Sept, 13:001,513 MW1,182 MW
16 Sept, 14:001,463 MW1,179 MW
16 Sept, 15:001,417 MW1,177 MW
16 Sept, 16:001,190 MW1,179 MW
16 Sept, 17:001,116 MW1,183 MW
16 Sept, 18:001,071 MW1,169 MW
16 Sept, 19:001,231 MW1,164 MW
16 Sept, 20:001,161 MW1,160 MW
16 Sept, 21:001,208 MW1,150 MW
16 Sept, 22:001,189 MW1,128 MW
16 Sept, 23:001,071 MW1,102 MW
17 Sept, 00:00961 MW1,087 MW
17 Sept, 01:00931 MW1,070 MW
17 Sept, 02:00961 MW1,067 MW
17 Sept, 03:00962 MW1,067 MW
17 Sept, 04:00897 MW1,080 MW
17 Sept, 05:001,040 MW1,093 MW
17 Sept, 06:001,126 MW1,122 MW
17 Sept, 07:001,303 MW1,151 MW
17 Sept, 08:001,282 MW1,168 MW
17 Sept, 09:001,090 MW1,164 MW
17 Sept, 10:001,179 MW1,174 MW
17 Sept, 11:001,345 MW1,169 MW
17 Sept, 12:001,214 MW1,168 MW
17 Sept, 13:001,104 MW1,171 MW
17 Sept, 14:001,396 MW1,163 MW
17 Sept, 15:001,361 MW1,169 MW
17 Sept, 16:001,242 MW1,181 MW
17 Sept, 17:001,135 MW1,187 MW
17 Sept, 18:001,036 MW1,178 MW
17 Sept, 19:001,142 MW1,168 MW
17 Sept, 20:001,264 MW1,160 MW
17 Sept, 21:001,270 MW1,149 MW
17 Sept, 22:001,275 MW1,132 MW
17 Sept, 23:001,363 MW1,111 MW
18 Sept, 00:001,128 MW1,092 MW
18 Sept, 01:001,051 MW1,081 MW
18 Sept, 02:001,049 MW1,083 MW
18 Sept, 03:001,074 MW1,081 MW
18 Sept, 04:001,066 MW1,096 MW
18 Sept, 05:001,009 MW1,113 MW
18 Sept, 06:001,078 MW1,153 MW
18 Sept, 07:001,243 MW1,179 MW
18 Sept, 08:001,331 MW1,187 MW
18 Sept, 09:001,373 MW1,186 MW
18 Sept, 10:001,289 MW1,175 MW
18 Sept, 11:001,193 MW1,165 MW
18 Sept, 12:001,185 MW1,165 MW
18 Sept, 13:001,158 MW1,164 MW
18 Sept, 14:001,157 MW1,159 MW
18 Sept, 15:001,024 MW1,168 MW
18 Sept, 16:001,154 MW1,176 MW
18 Sept, 17:001,373 MW1,181 MW
18 Sept, 18:001,130 MW1,176 MW
18 Sept, 19:001,131 MW1,174 MW
18 Sept, 20:001,116 MW1,170 MW
18 Sept, 21:001,122 MW1,161 MW
18 Sept, 22:001,076 MW1,138 MW
18 Sept, 23:001,042 MW1,111 MW
19 Sept, 00:00956 MW1,095 MW
19 Sept, 01:00915 MW1,072 MW
19 Sept, 02:00935 MW1,068 MW
19 Sept, 03:00973 MW1,071 MW
19 Sept, 04:00990 MW1,077 MW
19 Sept, 05:001,014 MW1,075 MW
19 Sept, 06:00988 MW1,069 MW
19 Sept, 07:001,025 MW1,081 MW
19 Sept, 08:001,031 MW1,119 MW
19 Sept, 09:001,040 MW1,145 MW
19 Sept, 10:001,051 MW1,148 MW
19 Sept, 11:00994 MW1,149 MW
19 Sept, 12:001,009 MW1,147 MW
19 Sept, 13:001,029 MW1,142 MW
19 Sept, 14:001,012 MW1,137 MW
19 Sept, 15:001,045 MW1,145 MW
19 Sept, 16:001,061 MW1,160 MW
19 Sept, 17:001,046 MW1,168 MW
19 Sept, 18:00977 MW1,162 MW
19 Sept, 19:001,064 MW1,158 MW
19 Sept, 20:001,087 MW1,158 MW
19 Sept, 21:001,168 MW1,152 MW
19 Sept, 22:001,076 MW1,137 MW
19 Sept, 23:001,011 MW1,111 MW
20 Sept, 00:001,061 MW1,096 MW
20 Sept, 01:00929 MW1,085 MW
20 Sept, 02:00915 MW1,083 MW
20 Sept, 03:00933 MW1,085 MW
20 Sept, 04:00977 MW1,087 MW
20 Sept, 05:001,107 MW1,089 MW
20 Sept, 06:001,133 MW1,082 MW
20 Sept, 07:001,174 MW1,096 MW
20 Sept, 08:001,282 MW1,119 MW
20 Sept, 09:001,433 MW1,142 MW
20 Sept, 10:001,300 MW1,147 MW
20 Sept, 11:001,210 MW1,152 MW
20 Sept, 12:001,119 MW1,151 MW
20 Sept, 13:001,138 MW1,153 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (686 of 686 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.