Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 23 August to 19 September 2026
The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 672 hours from 23 August to 19 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 5,247 MW (10.8%) too high at 31 Aug 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Berlin).
Key Facts
- The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 2.7% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 672 hours from 23 August to 19 September 2026, and 86% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 5,247 MW (10.8%) too high at 31 Aug 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
- Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Germany and Luxembourg came 15 (1 is the smallest error).
- On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,316 MW, against average demand of 50,537 MW.
- The forecast was above reported demand in 45% of compared hours.
Forecast Error at a Glance
672 hours from 23 August to 19 September 2026Average error2.7%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%86%
Worst miss5,247 MW
Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-118 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 5,247 MW (10.8%) too high at 31 Aug 2026, 21:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 53,868 MW, reported 48,622 MW.
Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-19. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.
Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days
Local time, to 19 Sept 2026, 23:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)Data to 2026-09-19
| Local hour | Reported demand | Day-ahead forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Sept, 00:00 | 39,067 MW | 40,791 MW |
| 13 Sept, 01:00 | 37,285 MW | 39,196 MW |
| 13 Sept, 02:00 | 36,815 MW | 38,314 MW |
| 13 Sept, 03:00 | 36,769 MW | 37,792 MW |
| 13 Sept, 04:00 | 36,331 MW | 37,845 MW |
| 13 Sept, 05:00 | 36,987 MW | 38,278 MW |
| 13 Sept, 06:00 | 38,162 MW | 40,093 MW |
| 13 Sept, 07:00 | 39,794 MW | 42,339 MW |
| 13 Sept, 08:00 | 42,799 MW | 45,483 MW |
| 13 Sept, 09:00 | 45,784 MW | 47,481 MW |
| 13 Sept, 10:00 | 48,135 MW | 48,742 MW |
| 13 Sept, 11:00 | 50,284 MW | 49,351 MW |
| 13 Sept, 12:00 | 50,050 MW | 48,923 MW |
| 13 Sept, 13:00 | 48,483 MW | 48,039 MW |
| 13 Sept, 14:00 | 47,399 MW | 47,168 MW |
| 13 Sept, 15:00 | 46,957 MW | 46,686 MW |
| 13 Sept, 16:00 | 47,636 MW | 46,777 MW |
| 13 Sept, 17:00 | 49,742 MW | 48,347 MW |
| 13 Sept, 18:00 | 51,096 MW | 49,542 MW |
| 13 Sept, 19:00 | 49,976 MW | 50,295 MW |
| 13 Sept, 20:00 | 49,117 MW | 49,632 MW |
| 13 Sept, 21:00 | 47,689 MW | 48,239 MW |
| 13 Sept, 22:00 | 46,751 MW | 46,206 MW |
| 13 Sept, 23:00 | 44,653 MW | 43,823 MW |
| 14 Sept, 00:00 | 43,200 MW | 41,421 MW |
| 14 Sept, 01:00 | 42,202 MW | 40,280 MW |
| 14 Sept, 02:00 | 41,874 MW | 39,911 MW |
| 14 Sept, 03:00 | 41,433 MW | 40,087 MW |
| 14 Sept, 04:00 | 42,798 MW | 41,180 MW |
| 14 Sept, 05:00 | 46,723 MW | 45,498 MW |
| 14 Sept, 06:00 | 54,408 MW | 52,983 MW |
| 14 Sept, 07:00 | 57,854 MW | 58,297 MW |
| 14 Sept, 08:00 | 61,050 MW | 61,419 MW |
| 14 Sept, 09:00 | 63,174 MW | 62,591 MW |
| 14 Sept, 10:00 | 64,395 MW | 62,898 MW |
| 14 Sept, 11:00 | 64,160 MW | 62,959 MW |
| 14 Sept, 12:00 | 61,362 MW | 61,612 MW |
| 14 Sept, 13:00 | 59,961 MW | 60,648 MW |
| 14 Sept, 14:00 | 59,022 MW | 59,050 MW |
| 14 Sept, 15:00 | 57,674 MW | 57,741 MW |
| 14 Sept, 16:00 | 57,903 MW | 57,433 MW |
| 14 Sept, 17:00 | 59,031 MW | 58,048 MW |
| 14 Sept, 18:00 | 59,450 MW | 58,963 MW |
| 14 Sept, 19:00 | 59,013 MW | 58,884 MW |
| 14 Sept, 20:00 | 58,088 MW | 56,872 MW |
| 14 Sept, 21:00 | 55,461 MW | 53,983 MW |
| 14 Sept, 22:00 | 52,380 MW | 50,790 MW |
| 14 Sept, 23:00 | 49,095 MW | 47,543 MW |
| 15 Sept, 00:00 | 47,582 MW | 45,818 MW |
| 15 Sept, 01:00 | 45,604 MW | 44,307 MW |
| 15 Sept, 02:00 | 44,468 MW | 43,677 MW |
| 15 Sept, 03:00 | 44,844 MW | 43,768 MW |
| 15 Sept, 04:00 | 45,645 MW | 44,440 MW |
| 15 Sept, 05:00 | 49,205 MW | 47,243 MW |
| 15 Sept, 06:00 | 55,475 MW | 53,187 MW |
| 15 Sept, 07:00 | 58,457 MW | 57,769 MW |
| 15 Sept, 08:00 | 62,588 MW | 60,913 MW |
| 15 Sept, 09:00 | 63,060 MW | 62,098 MW |
| 15 Sept, 10:00 | 62,225 MW | 62,542 MW |
| 15 Sept, 11:00 | 61,518 MW | 62,454 MW |
| 15 Sept, 12:00 | 61,071 MW | 61,028 MW |
| 15 Sept, 13:00 | 59,777 MW | 60,177 MW |
| 15 Sept, 14:00 | 58,062 MW | 58,719 MW |
| 15 Sept, 15:00 | 57,547 MW | 57,071 MW |
| 15 Sept, 16:00 | 57,562 MW | 56,945 MW |
| 15 Sept, 17:00 | 59,553 MW | 57,755 MW |
| 15 Sept, 18:00 | 61,452 MW | 59,260 MW |
| 15 Sept, 19:00 | 60,642 MW | 59,428 MW |
| 15 Sept, 20:00 | 60,083 MW | 57,861 MW |
| 15 Sept, 21:00 | 56,836 MW | 55,058 MW |
| 15 Sept, 22:00 | 53,651 MW | 51,198 MW |
| 15 Sept, 23:00 | 50,379 MW | 47,743 MW |
| 16 Sept, 00:00 | 47,802 MW | 45,719 MW |
| 16 Sept, 01:00 | 46,241 MW | 44,239 MW |
| 16 Sept, 02:00 | 45,539 MW | 43,523 MW |
| 16 Sept, 03:00 | 44,598 MW | 43,072 MW |
| 16 Sept, 04:00 | 45,665 MW | 44,344 MW |
| 16 Sept, 05:00 | 48,563 MW | 47,560 MW |
| 16 Sept, 06:00 | 55,681 MW | 53,908 MW |
| 16 Sept, 07:00 | 59,437 MW | 58,409 MW |
| 16 Sept, 08:00 | 62,626 MW | 61,016 MW |
| 16 Sept, 09:00 | 64,492 MW | 62,228 MW |
| 16 Sept, 10:00 | 65,373 MW | 62,690 MW |
| 16 Sept, 11:00 | 64,693 MW | 63,333 MW |
| 16 Sept, 12:00 | 63,501 MW | 62,468 MW |
| 16 Sept, 13:00 | 63,020 MW | 61,069 MW |
| 16 Sept, 14:00 | 61,151 MW | 59,143 MW |
| 16 Sept, 15:00 | 60,935 MW | 57,632 MW |
| 16 Sept, 16:00 | 61,109 MW | 58,050 MW |
| 16 Sept, 17:00 | 61,939 MW | 58,379 MW |
| 16 Sept, 18:00 | 61,851 MW | 58,876 MW |
| 16 Sept, 19:00 | 61,091 MW | 59,741 MW |
| 16 Sept, 20:00 | 59,611 MW | 57,701 MW |
| 16 Sept, 21:00 | 56,405 MW | 54,879 MW |
| 16 Sept, 22:00 | 52,921 MW | 51,300 MW |
| 16 Sept, 23:00 | 49,427 MW | 47,615 MW |
| 17 Sept, 00:00 | 47,329 MW | 45,284 MW |
| 17 Sept, 01:00 | 44,387 MW | 43,511 MW |
| 17 Sept, 02:00 | 45,152 MW | 42,678 MW |
| 17 Sept, 03:00 | 45,076 MW | 42,544 MW |
| 17 Sept, 04:00 | 46,469 MW | 43,337 MW |
| 17 Sept, 05:00 | 50,191 MW | 46,288 MW |
| 17 Sept, 06:00 | 55,695 MW | 52,669 MW |
| 17 Sept, 07:00 | 59,402 MW | 57,534 MW |
| 17 Sept, 08:00 | 62,499 MW | 60,712 MW |
| 17 Sept, 09:00 | 62,505 MW | 62,030 MW |
| 17 Sept, 10:00 | 62,784 MW | 62,971 MW |
| 17 Sept, 11:00 | 62,112 MW | 63,059 MW |
| 17 Sept, 12:00 | 61,262 MW | 61,895 MW |
| 17 Sept, 13:00 | 60,145 MW | 59,988 MW |
| 17 Sept, 14:00 | 57,930 MW | 58,397 MW |
| 17 Sept, 15:00 | 57,393 MW | 57,734 MW |
| 17 Sept, 16:00 | 57,966 MW | 57,170 MW |
| 17 Sept, 17:00 | 58,895 MW | 58,127 MW |
| 17 Sept, 18:00 | 60,399 MW | 59,373 MW |
| 17 Sept, 19:00 | 60,601 MW | 59,411 MW |
| 17 Sept, 20:00 | 58,839 MW | 57,559 MW |
| 17 Sept, 21:00 | 56,658 MW | 54,798 MW |
| 17 Sept, 22:00 | 53,085 MW | 51,228 MW |
| 17 Sept, 23:00 | 49,971 MW | 47,497 MW |
| 18 Sept, 00:00 | 46,007 MW | 45,728 MW |
| 18 Sept, 01:00 | 44,121 MW | 44,069 MW |
| 18 Sept, 02:00 | 43,165 MW | 43,412 MW |
| 18 Sept, 03:00 | 43,654 MW | 43,150 MW |
| 18 Sept, 04:00 | 44,242 MW | 44,347 MW |
| 18 Sept, 05:00 | 47,290 MW | 47,504 MW |
| 18 Sept, 06:00 | 54,447 MW | 53,318 MW |
| 18 Sept, 07:00 | 58,017 MW | 57,455 MW |
| 18 Sept, 08:00 | 60,116 MW | 60,565 MW |
| 18 Sept, 09:00 | 61,708 MW | 61,629 MW |
| 18 Sept, 10:00 | 62,469 MW | 61,563 MW |
| 18 Sept, 11:00 | 61,403 MW | 60,915 MW |
| 18 Sept, 12:00 | 59,477 MW | 59,953 MW |
| 18 Sept, 13:00 | 58,832 MW | 58,637 MW |
| 18 Sept, 14:00 | 57,780 MW | 57,141 MW |
| 18 Sept, 15:00 | 57,166 MW | 56,367 MW |
| 18 Sept, 16:00 | 55,894 MW | 56,060 MW |
| 18 Sept, 17:00 | 55,543 MW | 57,067 MW |
| 18 Sept, 18:00 | 56,653 MW | 57,485 MW |
| 18 Sept, 19:00 | 55,696 MW | 57,004 MW |
| 18 Sept, 20:00 | 54,426 MW | 55,181 MW |
| 18 Sept, 21:00 | 51,462 MW | 52,387 MW |
| 18 Sept, 22:00 | 47,694 MW | 49,261 MW |
| 18 Sept, 23:00 | 44,604 MW | 45,986 MW |
| 19 Sept, 00:00 | 41,210 MW | 43,308 MW |
| 19 Sept, 01:00 | 40,803 MW | 41,523 MW |
| 19 Sept, 02:00 | 40,651 MW | 40,399 MW |
| 19 Sept, 03:00 | 40,894 MW | 39,827 MW |
| 19 Sept, 04:00 | 41,172 MW | 39,776 MW |
| 19 Sept, 05:00 | 41,280 MW | 40,156 MW |
| 19 Sept, 06:00 | 42,990 MW | 41,684 MW |
| 19 Sept, 07:00 | 44,944 MW | 43,823 MW |
| 19 Sept, 08:00 | 48,403 MW | 47,051 MW |
| 19 Sept, 09:00 | 49,778 MW | 49,900 MW |
| 19 Sept, 10:00 | 51,384 MW | 51,637 MW |
| 19 Sept, 11:00 | 52,198 MW | 51,800 MW |
| 19 Sept, 12:00 | 50,627 MW | 50,935 MW |
| 19 Sept, 13:00 | 49,428 MW | 49,899 MW |
| 19 Sept, 14:00 | 47,081 MW | 48,969 MW |
| 19 Sept, 15:00 | 47,071 MW | 47,934 MW |
| 19 Sept, 16:00 | 46,990 MW | 48,458 MW |
| 19 Sept, 17:00 | 49,703 MW | 49,023 MW |
| 19 Sept, 18:00 | 50,538 MW | 50,146 MW |
| 19 Sept, 19:00 | 49,427 MW | 50,190 MW |
| 19 Sept, 20:00 | 48,452 MW | 48,859 MW |
| 19 Sept, 21:00 | 46,463 MW | 47,117 MW |
| 19 Sept, 22:00 | 44,403 MW | 44,817 MW |
| 19 Sept, 23:00 | 41,996 MW | 42,239 MW |
Assumptions
- Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (672 of 683 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
- Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
- Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
- European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.