Statistics
Page built 2026-11-05
Data as of 2026-11-05
Search
Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,056 MW (10.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Berlin).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for Germany and Luxembourg was off by 3.1% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 82% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -1.9%: it ran low on average, an under forecast. The largest miss was 7,056 MW (10.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, Germany and Luxembourg came 22 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 1,743 MW, against average demand of 55,035 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 24% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

685 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error3.1%
Bias-1.9%
Hours within 5%82%
Worst miss7,056 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-1,143 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran low on average, an under forecast. The worst miss was 7,056 MW (10.7%) too low at 21 Oct 2026, 15:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 58,851 MW, reported 65,907 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
Germany and Luxembourg day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 29 Oct, 13:0030 Oct, 13:0031 Oct, 13:001 Nov, 13:002 Nov, 13:003 Nov, 13:004 Nov, 13:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for Germany and Luxembourg over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 12:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 13:0064,593 MW60,654 MW
29 Oct, 14:0061,855 MW59,815 MW
29 Oct, 15:0061,086 MW59,891 MW
29 Oct, 16:0060,961 MW60,842 MW
29 Oct, 17:0062,068 MW62,680 MW
29 Oct, 18:0063,809 MW63,366 MW
29 Oct, 19:0055,126 MW61,997 MW
29 Oct, 20:0057,241 MW59,028 MW
29 Oct, 21:0056,804 MW55,942 MW
29 Oct, 22:0053,732 MW52,698 MW
29 Oct, 23:0050,768 MW48,835 MW
30 Oct, 00:0047,952 MW46,828 MW
30 Oct, 01:0046,378 MW45,180 MW
30 Oct, 02:0046,073 MW44,376 MW
30 Oct, 03:0046,627 MW44,259 MW
30 Oct, 04:0047,493 MW45,580 MW
30 Oct, 05:0050,311 MW49,173 MW
30 Oct, 06:0056,282 MW55,011 MW
30 Oct, 07:0060,455 MW60,017 MW
30 Oct, 08:0062,648 MW62,521 MW
30 Oct, 09:0064,340 MW62,364 MW
30 Oct, 10:0065,648 MW62,744 MW
30 Oct, 11:0066,063 MW62,523 MW
30 Oct, 12:0064,415 MW61,501 MW
30 Oct, 13:0062,130 MW59,350 MW
30 Oct, 14:0060,186 MW58,322 MW
30 Oct, 15:0059,335 MW58,324 MW
30 Oct, 16:0059,652 MW59,212 MW
30 Oct, 17:0061,668 MW60,946 MW
30 Oct, 18:0062,425 MW61,675 MW
30 Oct, 19:0060,773 MW60,818 MW
30 Oct, 20:0057,741 MW57,650 MW
30 Oct, 21:0054,835 MW54,528 MW
30 Oct, 22:0051,698 MW51,557 MW
30 Oct, 23:0048,892 MW48,384 MW
31 Oct, 00:0045,397 MW45,087 MW
31 Oct, 01:0043,428 MW43,121 MW
31 Oct, 02:0042,598 MW42,147 MW
31 Oct, 03:0043,210 MW41,777 MW
31 Oct, 04:0043,343 MW41,725 MW
31 Oct, 05:0043,668 MW42,682 MW
31 Oct, 06:0044,461 MW44,876 MW
31 Oct, 07:0046,120 MW47,366 MW
31 Oct, 08:0049,078 MW50,273 MW
31 Oct, 09:0051,847 MW52,282 MW
31 Oct, 10:0053,308 MW53,409 MW
31 Oct, 11:0054,010 MW54,110 MW
31 Oct, 12:0054,711 MW53,956 MW
31 Oct, 13:0053,261 MW53,175 MW
31 Oct, 14:0051,966 MW51,892 MW
31 Oct, 15:0051,942 MW51,413 MW
31 Oct, 16:0052,570 MW53,008 MW
31 Oct, 17:0054,430 MW54,541 MW
31 Oct, 18:0054,501 MW55,722 MW
31 Oct, 19:0053,214 MW55,569 MW
31 Oct, 20:0050,681 MW53,563 MW
31 Oct, 21:0049,351 MW51,123 MW
31 Oct, 22:0047,582 MW49,199 MW
31 Oct, 23:0045,851 MW46,634 MW
1 Nov, 00:0043,674 MW42,727 MW
1 Nov, 01:0042,338 MW40,898 MW
1 Nov, 02:0041,466 MW40,062 MW
1 Nov, 03:0041,375 MW39,720 MW
1 Nov, 04:0041,603 MW39,912 MW
1 Nov, 05:0041,845 MW40,819 MW
1 Nov, 06:0042,838 MW42,532 MW
1 Nov, 07:0044,331 MW44,750 MW
1 Nov, 08:0047,062 MW47,340 MW
1 Nov, 09:0049,600 MW49,460 MW
1 Nov, 10:0051,623 MW50,982 MW
1 Nov, 11:0052,791 MW52,352 MW
1 Nov, 12:0052,542 MW52,039 MW
1 Nov, 13:0051,956 MW51,283 MW
1 Nov, 14:0050,840 MW50,270 MW
1 Nov, 15:0050,433 MW50,633 MW
1 Nov, 16:0051,035 MW52,346 MW
1 Nov, 17:0054,011 MW54,160 MW
1 Nov, 18:0055,286 MW55,897 MW
1 Nov, 19:0054,447 MW55,319 MW
1 Nov, 20:0052,253 MW52,893 MW
1 Nov, 21:0050,561 MW50,815 MW
1 Nov, 22:0050,031 MW48,514 MW
1 Nov, 23:0047,849 MW45,916 MW
2 Nov, 00:0046,407 MW44,440 MW
2 Nov, 01:0045,301 MW43,425 MW
2 Nov, 02:0045,298 MW43,274 MW
2 Nov, 03:0046,218 MW43,737 MW
2 Nov, 04:0048,086 MW45,422 MW
2 Nov, 05:0051,689 MW49,582 MW
2 Nov, 06:0058,029 MW56,699 MW
2 Nov, 07:0063,599 MW61,933 MW
2 Nov, 08:0065,593 MW64,302 MW
2 Nov, 09:0066,679 MW64,486 MW
2 Nov, 10:0067,914 MW64,737 MW
2 Nov, 11:0069,116 MW65,032 MW
2 Nov, 12:0068,579 MW64,278 MW
2 Nov, 13:0066,655 MW63,311 MW
2 Nov, 14:0066,780 MW62,731 MW
2 Nov, 15:0066,951 MW62,109 MW
2 Nov, 16:0067,320 MW62,759 MW
2 Nov, 17:0069,452 MW64,641 MW
2 Nov, 18:0068,490 MW65,247 MW
2 Nov, 19:0067,741 MW63,619 MW
2 Nov, 20:0064,090 MW60,552 MW
2 Nov, 21:0060,822 MW57,537 MW
2 Nov, 22:0057,051 MW54,415 MW
2 Nov, 23:0053,258 MW50,959 MW
3 Nov, 00:0049,465 MW49,169 MW
3 Nov, 01:0048,696 MW47,451 MW
3 Nov, 02:0048,868 MW46,924 MW
3 Nov, 03:0048,569 MW47,165 MW
3 Nov, 04:0049,917 MW48,178 MW
3 Nov, 05:0053,110 MW51,303 MW
3 Nov, 06:0059,379 MW57,336 MW
3 Nov, 07:0063,815 MW61,794 MW
3 Nov, 08:0065,361 MW64,407 MW
3 Nov, 09:0066,320 MW65,091 MW
3 Nov, 10:0067,533 MW64,951 MW
3 Nov, 11:0068,651 MW64,033 MW
3 Nov, 12:0069,382 MW63,266 MW
3 Nov, 13:0068,266 MW62,545 MW
3 Nov, 14:0066,688 MW62,156 MW
3 Nov, 15:0065,585 MW61,702 MW
3 Nov, 16:0065,580 MW62,580 MW
3 Nov, 17:0067,239 MW64,357 MW
3 Nov, 18:0067,798 MW64,983 MW
3 Nov, 19:0066,891 MW63,945 MW
3 Nov, 20:0062,647 MW60,906 MW
3 Nov, 21:0059,523 MW57,862 MW
3 Nov, 22:0056,688 MW54,616 MW
3 Nov, 23:0053,045 MW50,799 MW
4 Nov, 00:0049,498 MW48,145 MW
4 Nov, 01:0048,053 MW46,625 MW
4 Nov, 02:0047,729 MW46,054 MW
4 Nov, 03:0048,679 MW46,272 MW
4 Nov, 04:0049,404 MW47,519 MW
4 Nov, 05:0052,839 MW50,974 MW
4 Nov, 06:0059,875 MW57,078 MW
4 Nov, 07:0064,737 MW61,737 MW
4 Nov, 08:0067,067 MW64,227 MW
4 Nov, 09:0067,783 MW65,103 MW
4 Nov, 10:0069,286 MW65,401 MW
4 Nov, 11:0069,601 MW65,374 MW
4 Nov, 12:0069,417 MW64,395 MW
4 Nov, 13:0067,922 MW63,095 MW
4 Nov, 14:0066,158 MW62,194 MW
4 Nov, 15:0066,490 MW62,019 MW
4 Nov, 16:0066,999 MW62,889 MW
4 Nov, 17:0068,614 MW64,526 MW
4 Nov, 18:0067,334 MW64,961 MW
4 Nov, 19:0066,220 MW64,336 MW
4 Nov, 20:0063,133 MW61,524 MW
4 Nov, 21:0060,105 MW58,291 MW
4 Nov, 22:0057,008 MW54,849 MW
4 Nov, 23:0053,700 MW51,106 MW
5 Nov, 00:0051,725 MW48,363 MW
5 Nov, 01:0049,742 MW46,607 MW
5 Nov, 02:0049,242 MW45,726 MW
5 Nov, 03:0049,558 MW45,965 MW
5 Nov, 04:0050,837 MW47,033 MW
5 Nov, 05:0054,366 MW50,071 MW
5 Nov, 06:0060,890 MW56,092 MW
5 Nov, 07:0063,840 MW61,307 MW
5 Nov, 08:0066,795 MW63,815 MW
5 Nov, 09:0061,288 MW64,591 MW
5 Nov, 10:0062,938 MW64,995 MW
5 Nov, 11:0063,062 MW65,566 MW
5 Nov, 12:0067,916 MW65,210 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (685 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_de_lu_2026,
  title = {{Germany and Luxembourg Demand Forecast Accuracy and Bias}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/}
}

Permalink: https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/de-lu/

The Copy buttons add today's date as the access date.