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Data as of 2026-09-20
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Built 2026-09-21 (21 September 2026)

France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 23 August to 20 September 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 100% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,372 MW (5.5%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Paris).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026, and 100% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.1%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 2,372 MW (5.5%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, France came 3 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 623 MW, against average demand of 42,466 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 44% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 23 August to 20 September 2026
Average error1.4%
Bias-0.1%
Hours within 5%100%
Worst miss2,372 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-21 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 2,372 MW (5.5%) too high at 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 CEST (UTC+02:00): forecast 45,563 MW, reported 43,191 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-09-20. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00)
France day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 15,000 30,000 45,000 60,000 13 Sept, 15:0014 Sept, 15:0015 Sept, 15:0016 Sept, 15:0017 Sept, 15:0018 Sept, 15:0019 Sept, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 20 Sept 2026, 14:00 CEST (UTC+02:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-09-20
France day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
13 Sept, 15:0039,826 MW39,888 MW
13 Sept, 16:0039,084 MW38,913 MW
13 Sept, 17:0039,441 MW39,063 MW
13 Sept, 18:0041,363 MW41,263 MW
13 Sept, 19:0043,121 MW43,200 MW
13 Sept, 20:0042,861 MW42,938 MW
13 Sept, 21:0041,307 MW41,900 MW
13 Sept, 22:0041,238 MW41,388 MW
13 Sept, 23:0040,522 MW41,588 MW
14 Sept, 00:0038,408 MW39,025 MW
14 Sept, 01:0036,653 MW36,938 MW
14 Sept, 02:0034,694 MW35,288 MW
14 Sept, 03:0032,853 MW33,375 MW
14 Sept, 04:0032,745 MW32,950 MW
14 Sept, 05:0034,760 MW34,650 MW
14 Sept, 06:0038,887 MW38,338 MW
14 Sept, 07:0042,654 MW41,825 MW
14 Sept, 08:0044,996 MW44,438 MW
14 Sept, 09:0046,210 MW46,000 MW
14 Sept, 10:0047,433 MW47,163 MW
14 Sept, 11:0048,313 MW48,413 MW
14 Sept, 12:0048,798 MW49,550 MW
14 Sept, 13:0048,337 MW49,613 MW
14 Sept, 14:0048,886 MW49,400 MW
14 Sept, 15:0048,445 MW48,950 MW
14 Sept, 16:0047,620 MW47,938 MW
14 Sept, 17:0047,530 MW47,575 MW
14 Sept, 18:0049,328 MW49,025 MW
14 Sept, 19:0050,083 MW50,125 MW
14 Sept, 20:0048,316 MW48,463 MW
14 Sept, 21:0045,483 MW46,163 MW
14 Sept, 22:0044,797 MW44,788 MW
14 Sept, 23:0043,638 MW45,050 MW
15 Sept, 00:0040,945 MW41,862 MW
15 Sept, 01:0039,010 MW40,211 MW
15 Sept, 02:0036,825 MW38,091 MW
15 Sept, 03:0035,012 MW36,002 MW
15 Sept, 04:0034,621 MW35,437 MW
15 Sept, 05:0035,997 MW36,932 MW
15 Sept, 06:0039,916 MW40,131 MW
15 Sept, 07:0043,543 MW43,978 MW
15 Sept, 08:0044,914 MW45,982 MW
15 Sept, 09:0045,834 MW47,189 MW
15 Sept, 10:0046,952 MW48,370 MW
15 Sept, 11:0048,438 MW49,327 MW
15 Sept, 12:0049,872 MW50,853 MW
15 Sept, 13:0049,442 MW50,414 MW
15 Sept, 14:0049,893 MW50,617 MW
15 Sept, 15:0049,151 MW49,904 MW
15 Sept, 16:0048,300 MW48,722 MW
15 Sept, 17:0048,129 MW48,970 MW
15 Sept, 18:0049,394 MW50,440 MW
15 Sept, 19:0049,932 MW51,182 MW
15 Sept, 20:0048,269 MW49,298 MW
15 Sept, 21:0045,406 MW47,150 MW
15 Sept, 22:0045,303 MW45,945 MW
15 Sept, 23:0044,215 MW45,599 MW
16 Sept, 00:0041,204 MW42,013 MW
16 Sept, 01:0039,465 MW40,042 MW
16 Sept, 02:0037,316 MW38,383 MW
16 Sept, 03:0035,490 MW35,936 MW
16 Sept, 04:0035,229 MW35,439 MW
16 Sept, 05:0036,510 MW36,721 MW
16 Sept, 06:0040,374 MW40,071 MW
16 Sept, 07:0043,246 MW43,535 MW
16 Sept, 08:0045,498 MW45,758 MW
16 Sept, 09:0046,722 MW47,025 MW
16 Sept, 10:0047,765 MW47,858 MW
16 Sept, 11:0049,321 MW48,667 MW
16 Sept, 12:0050,190 MW49,526 MW
16 Sept, 13:0050,134 MW49,282 MW
16 Sept, 14:0050,319 MW49,041 MW
16 Sept, 15:0048,894 MW47,877 MW
16 Sept, 16:0046,352 MW46,597 MW
16 Sept, 17:0046,077 MW46,095 MW
16 Sept, 18:0047,546 MW48,093 MW
16 Sept, 19:0048,702 MW49,412 MW
16 Sept, 20:0047,154 MW47,884 MW
16 Sept, 21:0044,634 MW45,558 MW
16 Sept, 22:0044,059 MW44,428 MW
16 Sept, 23:0042,919 MW44,133 MW
17 Sept, 00:0040,822 MW40,921 MW
17 Sept, 01:0039,292 MW39,050 MW
17 Sept, 02:0037,302 MW37,374 MW
17 Sept, 03:0035,461 MW35,016 MW
17 Sept, 04:0035,094 MW34,474 MW
17 Sept, 05:0036,688 MW35,518 MW
17 Sept, 06:0040,559 MW39,245 MW
17 Sept, 07:0044,159 MW43,012 MW
17 Sept, 08:0045,676 MW44,943 MW
17 Sept, 09:0046,014 MW46,042 MW
17 Sept, 10:0046,660 MW46,824 MW
17 Sept, 11:0047,501 MW47,327 MW
17 Sept, 12:0048,603 MW47,611 MW
17 Sept, 13:0047,402 MW47,281 MW
17 Sept, 14:0047,652 MW47,067 MW
17 Sept, 15:0046,931 MW46,277 MW
17 Sept, 16:0046,082 MW45,062 MW
17 Sept, 17:0045,941 MW44,911 MW
17 Sept, 18:0047,654 MW46,504 MW
17 Sept, 19:0048,554 MW48,057 MW
17 Sept, 20:0047,281 MW46,796 MW
17 Sept, 21:0044,515 MW44,551 MW
17 Sept, 22:0044,178 MW43,461 MW
17 Sept, 23:0043,262 MW43,745 MW
18 Sept, 00:0040,880 MW40,713 MW
18 Sept, 01:0039,163 MW39,300 MW
18 Sept, 02:0037,148 MW37,450 MW
18 Sept, 03:0035,277 MW35,463 MW
18 Sept, 04:0034,981 MW34,850 MW
18 Sept, 05:0036,477 MW36,350 MW
18 Sept, 06:0040,137 MW39,675 MW
18 Sept, 07:0043,854 MW43,413 MW
18 Sept, 08:0045,854 MW45,525 MW
18 Sept, 09:0046,372 MW46,575 MW
18 Sept, 10:0046,806 MW46,950 MW
18 Sept, 11:0047,591 MW47,663 MW
18 Sept, 12:0047,956 MW48,538 MW
18 Sept, 13:0046,197 MW47,963 MW
18 Sept, 14:0046,660 MW47,463 MW
18 Sept, 15:0045,377 MW46,250 MW
18 Sept, 16:0044,098 MW44,750 MW
18 Sept, 17:0044,387 MW44,413 MW
18 Sept, 18:0046,216 MW45,575 MW
18 Sept, 19:0046,773 MW46,200 MW
18 Sept, 20:0046,018 MW45,213 MW
18 Sept, 21:0043,713 MW43,213 MW
18 Sept, 22:0043,405 MW42,275 MW
18 Sept, 23:0042,833 MW42,288 MW
19 Sept, 00:0040,763 MW40,325 MW
19 Sept, 01:0038,541 MW38,088 MW
19 Sept, 02:0036,279 MW36,063 MW
19 Sept, 03:0034,263 MW34,038 MW
19 Sept, 04:0033,507 MW32,838 MW
19 Sept, 05:0033,727 MW32,963 MW
19 Sept, 06:0034,620 MW33,900 MW
19 Sept, 07:0035,471 MW34,863 MW
19 Sept, 08:0036,997 MW36,425 MW
19 Sept, 09:0038,467 MW38,525 MW
19 Sept, 10:0039,693 MW39,625 MW
19 Sept, 11:0040,976 MW40,650 MW
19 Sept, 12:0042,402 MW42,688 MW
19 Sept, 13:0041,031 MW41,788 MW
19 Sept, 14:0041,226 MW40,900 MW
19 Sept, 15:0040,771 MW40,338 MW
19 Sept, 16:0039,838 MW39,113 MW
19 Sept, 17:0040,004 MW39,100 MW
19 Sept, 18:0041,350 MW40,888 MW
19 Sept, 19:0042,586 MW42,288 MW
19 Sept, 20:0042,153 MW41,925 MW
19 Sept, 21:0040,453 MW40,650 MW
19 Sept, 22:0040,931 MW39,950 MW
19 Sept, 23:0040,808 MW40,563 MW
20 Sept, 00:0038,489 MW38,838 MW
20 Sept, 01:0036,748 MW37,188 MW
20 Sept, 02:0034,548 MW34,488 MW
20 Sept, 03:0032,499 MW32,288 MW
20 Sept, 04:0031,583 MW31,413 MW
20 Sept, 05:0031,581 MW31,375 MW
20 Sept, 06:0032,319 MW31,800 MW
20 Sept, 07:0032,916 MW32,413 MW
20 Sept, 08:0034,036 MW33,400 MW
20 Sept, 09:0035,655 MW35,250 MW
20 Sept, 10:0038,123 MW37,888 MW
20 Sept, 11:0040,296 MW39,600 MW
20 Sept, 12:0041,534 MW41,663 MW
20 Sept, 13:0040,052 MW41,000 MW
20 Sept, 14:0039,890 MW40,250 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.