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Built 2026-11-05 (5 November 2026)

France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss, 8 October to 5 November 2026

The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Dates and times are local (Europe/Paris).

Key Facts

  • The day-ahead demand forecast for France was off by 1.4% on average (mean absolute percentage error) over 687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026, and 99% of hours landed within 5% of the reading. Its bias was -0.0%: it ran close to balanced on average. The largest miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00).
  • Across 47 European bidding zones ranked by average error over their own latest 30 day windows, France came 5 (1 is the smallest error).
  • On average the forecast differed from reported demand by 692 MW, against average demand of 47,853 MW.
  • The forecast was above reported demand in 48% of compared hours.

Forecast Error at a Glance

687 hours from 8 October to 5 November 2026
Average error1.4%
Bias-0.0%
Hours within 5%99%
Worst miss3,208 MW

Average error is the mean absolute percentage gap between the forecast and reported demand. Bias is the signed mean (-26 MW per hour on average): the forecast ran close to balanced on average. The worst miss was 3,208 MW (5.7%) too low at 2 Nov 2026, 07:00 CET (UTC+01:00): forecast 53,475 MW, reported 56,683 MW.

Source: ENTSO-E Transparency Platform (transparency.entsoe.eu), CC BY 4.0. Aggregated and converted by World Power Monitor; ENTSO-E does not endorse this site. (ENTSO-E Terms of Use plus CC BY 4.0 for listed data items) Data as of 2026-11-05. Accuracy is computed by World Power Monitor from the operator's hourly forecast and reported demand.

Forecast and Reported Demand, Last 7 Days

Local time, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00)
France day-ahead demand forecast and reported demand by hour Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report. 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 29 Oct, 15:0030 Oct, 15:0031 Oct, 15:001 Nov, 15:002 Nov, 15:003 Nov, 15:004 Nov, 15:00
Hourly reported demand and the day-ahead forecast for France over the last 7 days of the window, to 5 Nov 2026, 14:00 CET (UTC+01:00). Gaps are hours with a missing, zero or implausible report.
Data to 2026-11-05
Show the data table (168 rows)
Local hourReported demandDay-ahead forecast
29 Oct, 15:0051,241 MW52,763 MW
29 Oct, 16:0050,246 MW50,738 MW
29 Oct, 17:0051,991 MW51,113 MW
29 Oct, 18:0056,197 MW54,888 MW
29 Oct, 19:0056,780 MW56,238 MW
29 Oct, 20:0053,460 MW53,350 MW
29 Oct, 21:0050,538 MW50,413 MW
29 Oct, 22:0050,943 MW50,375 MW
29 Oct, 23:0050,643 MW52,050 MW
30 Oct, 00:0049,134 MW49,450 MW
30 Oct, 01:0047,769 MW47,913 MW
30 Oct, 02:0045,664 MW46,250 MW
30 Oct, 03:0044,005 MW43,963 MW
30 Oct, 04:0044,052 MW43,275 MW
30 Oct, 05:0046,320 MW45,313 MW
30 Oct, 06:0050,413 MW49,688 MW
30 Oct, 07:0053,792 MW54,438 MW
30 Oct, 08:0056,032 MW56,438 MW
30 Oct, 09:0055,864 MW56,050 MW
30 Oct, 10:0055,059 MW55,188 MW
30 Oct, 11:0054,510 MW54,488 MW
30 Oct, 12:0054,399 MW54,350 MW
30 Oct, 13:0052,523 MW53,113 MW
30 Oct, 14:0052,319 MW52,475 MW
30 Oct, 15:0051,039 MW51,150 MW
30 Oct, 16:0049,828 MW49,988 MW
30 Oct, 17:0051,056 MW50,963 MW
30 Oct, 18:0054,749 MW54,800 MW
30 Oct, 19:0055,353 MW55,850 MW
30 Oct, 20:0052,324 MW53,125 MW
30 Oct, 21:0049,861 MW50,663 MW
30 Oct, 22:0050,569 MW50,475 MW
30 Oct, 23:0050,352 MW51,725 MW
31 Oct, 00:0048,636 MW48,838 MW
31 Oct, 01:0046,928 MW47,088 MW
31 Oct, 02:0044,721 MW45,763 MW
31 Oct, 03:0042,370 MW43,613 MW
31 Oct, 04:0041,680 MW42,625 MW
31 Oct, 05:0042,584 MW43,100 MW
31 Oct, 06:0044,546 MW44,588 MW
31 Oct, 07:0046,113 MW46,250 MW
31 Oct, 08:0047,744 MW47,763 MW
31 Oct, 09:0049,108 MW49,563 MW
31 Oct, 10:0049,209 MW49,975 MW
31 Oct, 11:0049,242 MW49,950 MW
31 Oct, 12:0050,236 MW50,200 MW
31 Oct, 13:0048,568 MW48,713 MW
31 Oct, 14:0048,067 MW47,200 MW
31 Oct, 15:0046,926 MW45,913 MW
31 Oct, 16:0045,630 MW45,075 MW
31 Oct, 17:0046,677 MW46,850 MW
31 Oct, 18:0050,160 MW50,513 MW
31 Oct, 19:0051,074 MW52,050 MW
31 Oct, 20:0049,048 MW49,838 MW
31 Oct, 21:0047,293 MW47,525 MW
31 Oct, 22:0048,303 MW47,388 MW
31 Oct, 23:0048,920 MW49,325 MW
1 Nov, 00:0047,806 MW48,700 MW
1 Nov, 01:0046,162 MW47,247 MW
1 Nov, 02:0043,995 MW44,596 MW
1 Nov, 03:0041,851 MW42,395 MW
1 Nov, 04:0041,305 MW41,667 MW
1 Nov, 05:0041,881 MW42,399 MW
1 Nov, 06:0043,200 MW44,038 MW
1 Nov, 07:0044,086 MW44,672 MW
1 Nov, 08:0045,695 MW46,011 MW
1 Nov, 09:0047,123 MW48,018 MW
1 Nov, 10:0048,063 MW49,340 MW
1 Nov, 11:0048,894 MW50,129 MW
1 Nov, 12:0050,088 MW51,166 MW
1 Nov, 13:0047,447 MW49,595 MW
1 Nov, 14:0046,801 MW47,959 MW
1 Nov, 15:0046,049 MW46,727 MW
1 Nov, 16:0045,509 MW45,946 MW
1 Nov, 17:0047,287 MW48,096 MW
1 Nov, 18:0052,409 MW53,232 MW
1 Nov, 19:0053,887 MW55,268 MW
1 Nov, 20:0051,445 MW53,002 MW
1 Nov, 21:0049,489 MW50,768 MW
1 Nov, 22:0049,957 MW50,618 MW
1 Nov, 23:0049,675 MW51,549 MW
2 Nov, 00:0048,365 MW48,788 MW
2 Nov, 01:0047,182 MW47,750 MW
2 Nov, 02:0045,441 MW46,250 MW
2 Nov, 03:0043,651 MW44,500 MW
2 Nov, 04:0043,855 MW44,238 MW
2 Nov, 05:0046,506 MW46,013 MW
2 Nov, 06:0051,988 MW50,038 MW
2 Nov, 07:0056,683 MW53,475 MW
2 Nov, 08:0058,516 MW56,038 MW
2 Nov, 09:0058,440 MW57,375 MW
2 Nov, 10:0057,941 MW57,613 MW
2 Nov, 11:0057,670 MW57,888 MW
2 Nov, 12:0057,842 MW58,675 MW
2 Nov, 13:0056,835 MW57,913 MW
2 Nov, 14:0057,050 MW57,350 MW
2 Nov, 15:0056,388 MW56,075 MW
2 Nov, 16:0055,618 MW55,275 MW
2 Nov, 17:0056,936 MW55,963 MW
2 Nov, 18:0061,447 MW59,725 MW
2 Nov, 19:0061,856 MW60,750 MW
2 Nov, 20:0058,130 MW57,138 MW
2 Nov, 21:0054,801 MW53,913 MW
2 Nov, 22:0054,467 MW53,188 MW
2 Nov, 23:0053,752 MW54,763 MW
3 Nov, 00:0051,841 MW52,950 MW
3 Nov, 01:0050,179 MW51,438 MW
3 Nov, 02:0048,285 MW49,450 MW
3 Nov, 03:0046,190 MW47,438 MW
3 Nov, 04:0045,918 MW47,125 MW
3 Nov, 05:0048,591 MW49,038 MW
3 Nov, 06:0053,783 MW53,075 MW
3 Nov, 07:0058,354 MW57,225 MW
3 Nov, 08:0060,496 MW59,888 MW
3 Nov, 09:0060,772 MW60,088 MW
3 Nov, 10:0060,656 MW59,813 MW
3 Nov, 11:0060,785 MW59,750 MW
3 Nov, 12:0060,999 MW60,300 MW
3 Nov, 13:0059,618 MW59,250 MW
3 Nov, 14:0060,063 MW58,550 MW
3 Nov, 15:0058,790 MW57,450 MW
3 Nov, 16:0057,852 MW56,263 MW
3 Nov, 17:0059,501 MW57,125 MW
3 Nov, 18:0063,752 MW61,338 MW
3 Nov, 19:0064,355 MW62,788 MW
3 Nov, 20:0060,725 MW59,613 MW
3 Nov, 21:0057,439 MW56,638 MW
3 Nov, 22:0057,383 MW56,038 MW
3 Nov, 23:0056,592 MW56,950 MW
4 Nov, 00:0054,474 MW54,588 MW
4 Nov, 01:0052,899 MW52,688 MW
4 Nov, 02:0050,890 MW50,888 MW
4 Nov, 03:0048,715 MW49,000 MW
4 Nov, 04:0048,565 MW48,688 MW
4 Nov, 05:0051,116 MW51,100 MW
4 Nov, 06:0055,944 MW55,613 MW
4 Nov, 07:0060,227 MW60,413 MW
4 Nov, 08:0063,423 MW63,250 MW
4 Nov, 09:0064,323 MW63,825 MW
4 Nov, 10:0064,175 MW63,650 MW
4 Nov, 11:0063,683 MW63,688 MW
4 Nov, 12:0064,187 MW63,650 MW
4 Nov, 13:0062,975 MW62,775 MW
4 Nov, 14:0062,588 MW62,288 MW
4 Nov, 15:0061,213 MW60,913 MW
4 Nov, 16:0060,321 MW59,425 MW
4 Nov, 17:0061,590 MW60,125 MW
4 Nov, 18:0065,879 MW64,063 MW
4 Nov, 19:0066,143 MW65,088 MW
4 Nov, 20:0062,228 MW61,738 MW
4 Nov, 21:0058,794 MW58,388 MW
4 Nov, 22:0058,319 MW57,213 MW
4 Nov, 23:0057,626 MW58,088 MW
5 Nov, 00:0055,808 MW55,813 MW
5 Nov, 01:0054,242 MW54,600 MW
5 Nov, 02:0052,099 MW52,738 MW
5 Nov, 03:0049,813 MW50,250 MW
5 Nov, 04:0049,574 MW49,250 MW
5 Nov, 05:0052,109 MW52,050 MW
5 Nov, 06:0056,801 MW56,463 MW
5 Nov, 07:0061,037 MW61,250 MW
5 Nov, 08:0063,676 MW63,613 MW
5 Nov, 09:0064,314 MW64,388 MW
5 Nov, 10:0063,159 MW64,075 MW
5 Nov, 11:0062,311 MW63,500 MW
5 Nov, 12:0062,135 MW63,338 MW
5 Nov, 13:0060,379 MW62,488 MW
5 Nov, 14:0060,542 MW61,900 MW

Assumptions

  • Only hours with both a forecast and a positive demand reading count (687 of 687 hours in the window). Missing and zero values, and readings under 30% or over 3 times the grid's own median for the window, are treated as reporting faults and left out.
  • Error is (forecast minus reported demand) divided by reported demand; average error uses absolute values so high and low misses do not cancel. Bias keeps the sign and does cancel.
  • Reported demand is preliminary and may be revised. A 30 day window is a short sample and one heat wave or holiday can move these figures.
  • European figures are for the ENTSO-E bidding zone named on this page. US and European grids are ranked separately.
Cite this page
APA 7

World Power Monitor. (2026). France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

Plain text

World Power Monitor. France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss. Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/

BibTeX 
@misc{wpm_forecast_accuracy_fr_2026,
  title = {{France Demand Forecast Accuracy: Error, Bias and Worst Miss}},
  author = {{World Power Monitor}},
  year = {2026},
  note = {Data as of 2026-11-05. Data from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform.},
  url = {https://worldpowermonitor.com/forecast-accuracy/fr/}
}

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