Pace to a Clean Grid: 50 of 109 Countries Would Be 90% Low Carbon by 2050 at Their Current Pace

Read the projection with care. This is a straight line projection of the last 10 years, not a forecast. Shares cannot keep rising at a constant rate, and policy, weather and demand all change. It is shown to compare how fast countries are moving, not to say what will happen. The year to 90% and 100% columns are that straight line projection, counted from each country's latest share.

Countries that generated at least 10 TWh in their latest year and have at least 8 valid years of low carbon share in their last 10. Low carbon is nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, bioenergy, geothermal and other renewables, capped at 100%. The pace is the slope of an ordinary least squares line through those years. Years to a target are counted from the latest actual share at that pace, and a projection more than 100 years out is shown as "not on this pace". A slope within 0.05 points a year of zero counts as flat. 14 countries are flat on this measure. The World row uses Ember's World region on the same rules and is not counted in the totals above.

These are measured changes over the window, not projections: the fitted line through low carbon share fell by at least 0.05 points a year. A dry year for hydro or a nuclear outage can pull a share down for a while, so look at each country's history before reading a long term shift into it. At least 8 valid years are needed in the window.